比特币（BTC）繁荣和障碍循环变得无关紧要，CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju说

这种情绪是因为比特币（BTC）的价格超过100,000美元的门槛。先驱加密货币正在从机构兴趣和宏观经济潮流中汲取风风。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says that Bitcoin’s once-predictable boom-and-bust cycles are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，比特币曾经可以预测的繁荣和障碍周期变得越来越无关紧要。

The sentiment comes as Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers above the $100,000 threshold. The pioneer crypto is drawing tailwinds from institutional interest and macroeconomic tides.

这种情绪是因为比特币（BTC）价格徘徊在100,000美元的门槛以上。先驱加密货币正在从机构兴趣和宏观经济潮流中汲取风风。

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Obsolete

加密首席执行官：比特币循环理论已过时

Ki Young Ju admitted that his earlier prediction—two months ago—that Bitcoin’s bull cycle had ended was incorrect.

Ki Young Ju承认，他的早期预测（两个月前）是比特币的公牛周期结束的。

“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs…In the past, the market was pretty simple… old whales, miners, and retail passed the bag to each other,” he said.

他说：“两个月前，我说公牛周期已经结束，但我错了。比特币销售压力正在缓解，大量流入通过ETF……过去，市场非常简单……老鲸鱼，矿工和零售零售包彼此之间。”

This is in contrast to the new dynamics being introduced by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and institutional investors. According to the CryptoQuant executive, ETFs, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), and institutions are rewriting the script.

这与ETF（交易所交易基金）和机构投资者引入的新动态形成对比。根据加密高管，ETFS，MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR），机构正在重写脚本。

“Now, with ETFs, institutions, and new liquidity coming in, the market is changing rapidly. It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory,” he added.

他补充说：“现在，随着ETF，机构和新的流动性进入，市场正在迅速发生变化。感觉好像是时候抛出该循环理论了。”

On-chain analysts used to closely track miner reserves, whale movements, and retail inflows to anticipate cycle tops. This system worked well when everyone scrambled to exit simultaneously.

链上分析师过去曾密切跟踪矿工储量，鲸鱼运动和零售流入，以预测周期顶部。当每个人都争先恐后地同时退出时，该系统运行良好。

However, today, those indicators are blurring in relevance. Strategy alone now holds 555,450 BTC, a stake recently expanded by 1,895 BTC purchased for $180.3 million.

但是，如今，这些指标的相关性变得模糊。仅策略现在持有555,450 BTC，最近以1,895 BTC的价格以1.803亿美元的价格购买了一种股份。

The firm’s Bitcoin holdings are up 50.1% due to long-term accumulation strategies and sustained institutional conviction, not because of cyclical timing.

由于长期积累策略和持续的机构信念，该公司的比特币持有量增长了50.1％，这不是由于周期性的时机。

The entry of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and rising allocations from global TradFi players are forcing analysts to revise their assessments of liquidity flows.

现货比特币ETF在美国的进入以及来自全球贸易爱好者的分配的上升，迫使分析师修改其对流动性流量的评估。

BeInCrypto reported that US-based ETFs saw net inflows return in May, propelling Bitcoin back above $100,000. This milestone has further destabilized traditional cycle narratives, a structural shift that Young Ju also alludes to.

Beincrypto报道说，总部位于美国的ETF在5月的净流入率返回，将比特币拖回了100,000美元以上。这个里程碑进一步破坏了传统循环叙事的稳定，这是年轻JU也暗示的结构性转变。

“It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory… Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs,” the CryptoQuant analyst stated.

“感觉好像是时候抛出这种循环理论了……现在，不用担心旧鲸鱼的销售，而是关注来自机构和ETF的新流动性的重点是更重要的。”

Still, Ju insists that on-chain data retains analytical value. He cites the Signal 365 MA chart as a long-term barometer. This metric tracks Bitcoin’s price deviation from its 365-day moving average.

尽管如此，JU仍坚持认为链上数据仍保留分析价值。他将信号365 MA图表作为长期晴雨表。该度量标准跟踪比特币的价格偏差与365天的移动平均线。

Yet even that model, which once accurately framed cyclical extremes, now struggles amid newer variables and shows signs of recalibration.

然而，即使是曾经准确地构造了周期性极端的模型，现在在更新的变量中挣扎并显示了重新校准的迹象。

Elsewhere, analyst Kyledoops noted on X that CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Indicator just flipped its first bullish reading since February, albeit weakly, as BTC reclaimed $100,000.

在其他地方，分析师Kyledoops在X上指出，CryptoQuant的Bull-Bear指标只是自2月以来的第一份看涨读物，尽管较弱，但BTC收回了100,000美元。

“The 30DMA is curling up. A cross above the 365DMA has historically kicked off big runs. Might be nothing. Might be everything,” he observed.

他观察到：“ 30DMA正在curl缩。365DMA上方的十字架历史上开始了大跑。可能没什么。可能是一切。”

Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against US Treasury risk and fiat debasement. Traditional asset management circles are now echoing this sentiment.

比特币越来越被视为抵制美国国库风险和法定贬低的对冲。传统的资产管理圈子现在正在回应这种观点。

The Bitcoin market no longer fits into the old cyclical box. Analysts may be compelled to adjust their frameworks with ETF inflows, institutional reserves, and TradFi’s growing footprint.

比特币市场不再适合旧​​的周期性盒子。分析师可能会被迫通过ETF流入，机构储备和Tradfi不断增长的足迹来调整其框架。

“Just because I was wrong doesn’t mean on-chain data is useless. Data is just data, and perspectives vary. I will strive to provide higher-quality analyses in the future,” Ju concluded.

JU总结说：“仅仅因为我错了，并不意味着链上的数据是没有用的。数据只是数据，观点各不相同。我将努力在将来提供更高质量的分析。”

This perspective suggests that the Bitcoin market is maturing, and with TradFi progressively taking the reins, the playbook is being rewritten in real time.

这种观点表明，比特币市场正在成熟，随着Tradfi逐渐掌权，该剧本正在实时重写。