尽管不鼓励GDP报告，但比特币仍具有其价值，并在阿根廷袭击了一个新的ATH

美国经济分析局（BEA）今天发布了第1季度2025年第1季度的PCE和GDP报告。尽管有一个令人沮丧的信号，但比特币仍然保持良好状态，甚至达到了阿根廷的新历史最高水平。

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its PCE and GDP reports for Q1 2025 earlier today. While inflation was lower than expected, the country’s GDP shrank before the tariffs took effect, encouraging fears of a recession.

美国经济分析局（BEA）今天早些时候发布了第1季度2025年第1季度的PCE和GDP报告。尽管通货膨胀率低于预期，但该国的GDP在关税生效之前就缩小了，鼓励人们担心经济衰退。

Despite this discouraging signal, Bitcoin (BTC) has held up rather well, even hitting a new all-time high in Argentina. This lends credence to the notion that BTC is a safe haven from economic chaos.

尽管有一个令人沮丧的信号，但比特币（BTC）仍然保持良好的状态，甚至在阿根廷的历史最高时分达到了新的高度。这对BTC是避免经济混乱的避风港的观念表示信任。

Trump’s Tariffs May Cause Recession

特朗普的关税可能会导致衰退

The global economy is extremely complicated, full of signals that seemingly contradict each other. Since President Donald Trump’s tariff plan began taking effect earlier this year, fears of a US recession have gripped the markets. However, when the BEA released its Q1 2025 PCE report this morning, it prompted relief from some sectors.

全球经济非常复杂，充满了彼此之间似乎相互矛盾的信号。自从唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税计划于今年早些时候开始生效以来，对美国衰退的担忧已经席卷了市场。但是，当BEA今天早上发布其第一季度2025 PCE报告时，它引起了一些部门的缓解。

“Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the [BEA]. The increase in current-dollar personal income in March reflected increases in compensation and proprietors' income,” the report claimed.

报告称：“根据[BEA]今天发布的估计，三月份的估计，3月份的个人收入增加了1,168亿美元（每月汇率为0.5％）。3月份的当前个人收入的增加反映了薪酬和所有人的收入的增加。”

At first glance, this data looks highly encouraging. The PCE (personal consumer expenditures) report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred tool to measure inflation, and it’s full of reassuring points.

乍一看，这些数据看起来令人鼓舞。 PCE（个人消费者支出）报告是美联储衡量通货膨胀的首选工具，并充满了令人放心的积分。

The core PCE price index (YoY) for March was 2.6%, the lowest since June 2024, and the MoM index was at its lowest since April 2020. In other words, the dollar still spends.

3月的核心PCE价格指数（YOY）为2.6％，是自2024年6月以来最低的，妈妈的指数自2020年4月以来最低。换句话说，美元仍然花费。

However, the BEA also released its GDP report today. Although the tariffs haven’t impacted inflation yet, a recession happens after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The US officially experienced one in Q1, and this report only concerns pre-tariff data:

但是，BEA今天还发布了其GDP报告。尽管关税尚未影响通货膨胀，但在连续两个季度负GDP增长后，经济衰退发生。美国在第1季度正式经历了一项，本报告仅涉及到定位前的数据：

CNN hypothesized that the inflation figures were artificially heightened thanks to the tariffs. Specifically, US consumers may have purchased more goods in anticipation of them becoming more expensive. This systematic behavior would throw off the usual metrics of inflation tracking.

美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）假设，由于关税，通货膨胀数字人为增加。具体来说，美国消费者可能已经购买了更多商品，以期变得越来越昂贵。这种系统的行为将抛弃通货膨胀跟踪的通常指标。

How will these statistics impact the crypto industry? Simply put, Bitcoin isn’t acting like tariffs are about to cause the US to enter a recession. It actually sustained its value, trading above $94,000 despite the grim economic outlook.

这些统计数据将如何影响加密行业？简而言之，比特币的行为不像关税将导致美国进入衰退。它实际上持有其价值，尽管经济前景严峻，但其价值超过94,000美元。

Analysts have been wondering if BTC will be a safe haven in economic chaos, and recent data suggests it could benefit from trade disruptions. After all, cryptocurrencies are decentralized and operate beyond the boundaries of national currencies.

分析师一直在想，BTC是否会成为经济混乱的避风港，最近的数据表明，它可能会受益于贸易中断。毕竟，加密货币是分散的，并且超出了民族货币的边界。

Bitcoin also reached an all-time high in Argentina today, surpassing 110 million ARS per BTC. This surge is likely due to the significant depreciation of the Argentine peso, which was trading near 1,165 per US dollar in official markets.

当今阿根廷的比特币也达到了历史最高水平，每BTC超过1.1亿AR。这一激增可能是由于阿根廷比索的重大折旧造成的，官方市场在官方市场中的交易价格接近1,165。

These developments indicate that Bitcoin might successfully function as a hedge against economic instability.

这些事态发展表明，比特币可能成功地充当对冲经济不稳定。

Ultimately, these claims are still speculation. The tariffs may or may not cause the US to enter a recession, which would truly test Bitcoin’s status as a safe haven. But from today’s perspective, at least, the hypothesis seems reasonable.

最终，这些主张仍然是猜测。关税可能会或不会导致美国进入经济衰退，这将真正测试比特币作为避风港的地位。但是至少从今天的角度来看，假设似乎是合理的。