比特币（BTC）的价格很快可能会达到新的历史最高点，从而触发了山寨币市场的增长

比特币（BTC）可能很快达到创纪录的价格高点，从而触发了更广泛的山寨币市场的加速增长，因为缓解美中贸易紧张局势的缓解可能会使市场对本周到期的4月CPI的潜在放缓做出积极反应。

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday that the two countries have reached a trade agreement after two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva. Both countries are set to issue a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks later Monday.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）和贸易代表杰米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）周日宣布，两国在日内瓦进行了两天的高级谈判后达成了贸易协定。两国将在周一晚些时候就日内瓦贸易谈判发表联合声明。

The trade deal comes after weeks of a tit-for-tat trade war that saw both countries raise import tariffs above 100%, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. As such, the positive March U.S. consumer price inflation data released last month was largely dismissed by investors and analysts as a lagging metric that didn’t accurately reflect the escalating trade tensions.

这项贸易协议是在一场卖出贸易战争的数周之后进行的，这两种国家都将进口关税提高到100％以上，并威胁要向全球经济注入通货膨胀。因此，上个月发布的积极的美国消费者价格通货膨胀数据在很大程度上被投资者和分析师视为滞后的指标，该指标并未准确地反映出不断升级的贸易紧张局势。

The bears, however, cannot make that argument anymore, thanks to the trade agreement. A continued softening of CPI could see Fed rate cut bets increase, providing a bullish catalyst for a Bitcoin (BTC) rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI could be dismissed as backwards-looking, reflecting the April tariffs and not accounting for the de-escalation in trade tensions.

但是，由于贸易协定，熊不再提出这一论点。 CPI的持续软化可能会使美联储降低赌注增加，从而为比特币（BTC）集会提供了看涨的催化剂，以纪录高于110,000美元的高点。另一方面，可以将比预期的CPI更热视为倒退，这反映了四月的关税，而不是考虑贸易张力的降低。

The CPI due Tuesday is expected to show the cost of living eased to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March's 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have stayed at 2.8% year-over-year in April, with continued moderation in rent inflation.

根据加拿大皇家银行（RBC）的数据，预计周二到期的CPI预计将显示4月份的生活成本从3月份的2.4％降至2.3％。排除食品和能源的核心CPI预计将在4月份保持待遇为2.8％，租金通货膨胀率继续进行。

According to 10x Research, consensus is that the headline CPI likely held unchanged at 2.4% in April.

根据10倍研究，共识是，头条CPI可能在4月保持不变的2.4％。

“If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs headline, this week's week's inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk.

10倍研究的创始人Markus Thielen告诉Coindesk：“如果这种期望达成，市场可能会将通货膨胀报告视为正。除了任何负面的关税标题外，本周的通货膨胀数据可能会提供看涨的催化剂。”

“CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs,” Thielen, known for his bold predictions on Bitcoin, added.

“ CPI可能是看涨的，并且可能带来新的历史最高点，”蒂伦（Thielen）以对比特币的大胆预测而闻名。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of hitting new highs above $109,350, CoinDesk data show. BTC has had a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 since early April, with prices surging 10% last week due to continued inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Coindesk的数据显示，比特币是市场价值的领先加密货币，以104,000美元左右的价格易手，仅在109,350美元以上的新高点不到5.1％。自4月初以来，BTC从75,000美元的$ 75,000恢复了几乎几乎是V形的回收率，由于持续流入现货交易所交易的资金（ETF），上周的价格飙升了10％。

BlackRock's (BLK) flagship ETF (IBIT) registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating the data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts. But Chairman Jerome Powell offered dovish hints, saying "the underlying inflation picture is good," while calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.

根据Sosovalue数据，贝莱德（Black）（BLK）旗舰ETF（IBIT）连续20个交易日注册了净流入，积累了超过50亿美元的投资者资金。上周，美联储将基准借贷成本保持在4.25％至4.5％的范围内，同时重申了依赖于潜在降低的数据的立场。但是董事长杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）提供了虔诚的提示，并说“基本通货膨胀情况是好的”，同时称关税的通货膨胀影响短暂。

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, the best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL surged 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20%, respectively.

根据TradingView的数据，Ether（ETH）是按市值按市场价值计算的第二大加密货币，上周增长了39％，至2,500美元，这是自2020年12月以来的最佳性能。 XRP，Doge，ADA和SOL等其他主要山寨币分别飙升了9.7％，56％，19％和20％。

According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, meaning the rally could continue.

根据HTX研究，还没有投机性疯狂的迹象，这意味着集会可以继续。

Implied volatility (IV) in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable, HTX Research said.

比特币期权中的隐含波动率（IV）在50％–55％的范围内保持稳定，远低于过去牛市高峰期通常看到的80％+的极端水平。 HTX Research说，CME比特币期货目前的开放利息目前为148亿美元，远低于2020年特朗普选举期间观察到的200亿美元高峰，这表明杠杆仍然可以控制。

“As long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger,” HTX added.

HTX补充说：“只要收益率不回到4.8％以上并且ETF流入保持稳定，比特币可能会在105,000美元至115,000美元的范围内合并，同时等待下一个突破触发器。”