衍生品交易员：加密货币市场仍面临过度杠杆化、头寸驱动的抛售风险

在此期间，比特币和以太币等主要加密货币与股票一起暴跌，价值均下跌超过 20%。

Gordon Grant, a derivatives trader, has warned that the crypto perpetual futures market is still at risk of over-leveraged position-driven sell-offs, as evidenced by the high funding rates and the potential for another external shock.

衍生品交易员戈登·格兰特警告称，加密货币永续期货市场仍面临过度杠杆化、头寸驱动的抛售风险，高融资利率和再次外部冲击的可能性就证明了这一点。

According to data from Coinglass, the open interest-weighted funding rate currently stands at 0.0116%, marking the highest level since July 29, when Ether was trading at $3,316. This spike occurred just before a dramatic 22% price crash in early August.

根据 Coinglass 的数据，未平仓利率加权资金利率目前为 0.0116%，这是自 7 月 29 日以来的最高水平，当时以太坊交易价格为 3,316 美元。这次飙升发生在 8 月初价格暴跌 22% 之前。

The August crash was primarily caused by a global stock market downturn following the Bank of Japan’s unexpected interest rate hike. This move led to an unwind of the yen carry trade, which shocked the market from the outside.

八月份的崩盘主要是由于日本央行意外加息后全球股市低迷造成的。此举导致日元套利交易平仓，令外界震惊。

Grant explained that the highly leveraged crypto derivatives market likely amplified the impact of this shock. Speaking to The Block, Grant highlighted that changes in the makeup of perpetual futures market participants reveal vulnerabilities within the cryptocurrency market. Should another external shock similar to the yen carry trade unwind occur, the market could experience significant turmoil once again.

格兰特解释说，高杠杆的加密货币衍生品市场可能放大了这次冲击的影响。格兰特在接受 The Block 采访时强调，永续期货市场参与者构成的变化揭示了加密货币市场的脆弱性。如果再次发生类似于日元套利交易平仓的外部冲击，市场可能会再次经历严重动荡。

In August 2023, a significant market position involved an oversized Ether overwriter who sold calls and hedged with long futures. This strategy contributed to substantial market volatility when unwinds occurred.

2023 年 8 月，一个重要的市场头寸涉及一家规模庞大的以太坊承销商，该承销商出售看涨期权并用多头期货进行对冲。当平仓发生时，这种策略导致市场大幅波动。

Ethereum’s on-chain activity has been growing, particularly with new decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols like Ethena attracting users.

以太坊的链上活动一直在增长，特别是像 Ethena 这样的新去中心化金融 (DeFi) 协议吸引了用户。

Ethena employs a strategy that involves farming stablecoins to generate a delta-neutral yield by buying Ether while simultaneously hedging risk using perpetual futures. However, this approach increases exposure to funding rates, meaning negative rates could result in substantial losses.

Ethena 采用的策略包括种植稳定币，通过购买以太币来产生 Delta 中性收益，同时使用永续期货对冲风险。然而，这种方法增加了资金利率的风险，这意味着负利率可能会导致重大损失。

Grant warned, “There are now bigger positions than before carrying such shorts which could essentially spiral out of control in a persistently negative funding environment.” With billions of dollars in short futures positions against long and staked spot holdings, a sudden downturn in funding rates could lead to losses amounting to tens of millions within hours.

格兰特警告说，“现在持有此类空头头寸的规模比以前更大，在持续负面的融资环境下，这些空头可能基本上失控。”由于持有数十亿美元的期货空头头寸，而持有多头和质押的现货头寸，融资利率的突然下降可能会在数小时内导致高达数千万美元的损失。

Grant also pointed out the role of DeFi lending protocols in these market dynamics. While they provide solutions, the absence of large blocks of coins available for borrowing to short against long futures positions—unlike what exists in centralized finance (CeFi) lending—means that market unwinds could be more prolonged and painful compared to traditional finance systems.

格兰特还指出了 DeFi 借贷协议在这些市场动态中的作用。虽然它们提供了解决方案，但与中心化金融（CeFi）贷款不同，缺乏大量可用于借入空头期货头寸的代币，这意味着与传统金融系统相比，市场放松可能会更加漫长和痛苦。

Several other factors are also influencing the current market conditions. There are concerns about potential pullbacks in high-performing chip stocks like Nvidia. China’s impressive recent stock rally has begun to slow, and tensions in the Middle East continue to spread. When combined with the existing leverage in the crypto market, these factors could trigger a sharp market downturn.

其他几个因素也影响着当前的市场状况。人们担心英伟达等高性能芯片股可能出现回调。中国近期令人印象深刻的股市涨势已开始放缓，中东紧张局势继续蔓延。当与加密货币市场现有的杠杆相结合时，这些因素可能会引发市场急剧下滑。

Grant emphasized the importance of monitoring broader risk assets such as chip stocks and geopolitical developments. He said:

格兰特强调了监测芯片股和地缘政治发展等更广泛风险资产的重要性。他说：

“This is all the more reason to watch out when the worm turns on broader risk assets such as chip stocks or when geopolitical shocks threaten to rattle the cages of equity market beta proxies, including crypto where pockets of short gamma may exist in and around the U.S. election even.”

“当蠕虫病毒攻击芯片股等更广泛的风险资产时，或者当地缘政治冲击可能扰乱股市贝塔代理的笼子时，包括加密货币，其中可能存在短期伽玛的区域时，就更有理由警惕了。甚至美国大选。”

A specific risk highlighted by Grant is the possibility of a large long position being carried in perpetual contracts. Such a scenario could drive funding rates to unusually high levels, only to see them crash during a liquidation event similar to what happened on August 17, 2023.

格兰特强调的一个具体风险是永续合约中存在大量多头头寸的可能性。这种情况可能会将融资利率推至异常高的水平，但最终会在类似 2023 年 8 月 17 日发生的清算事件中看到融资利率崩溃。

Ethereum is currently at the $2,600 level, up 11% YTD.

以太坊目前处于 2,600 美元水平，年初至今上涨 11%。