第一季度比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的对比表现导致了不同的前景

第一季度比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的对比表现导致了第二季度的不同前景

The contrasting performances of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the first quarter led to divergent outlooks in the second quarter, according to Fidelity Digital Assets in an April 28 report.

根据Fidelity Digital Assets在4月28日的报告中，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的表现在第二季度导致了不同的前景。

Bitcoin began the year trading at $82,560, sustaining a decline of over 20% from its December 2024 all-time high of $108,000. However, the flagship crypto maintained strong on-chain fundamentals.

比特币的开始年度为82,560美元，比2024年12月的历史最高高点的下降超过20％。但是，旗舰加密货币保持强大的链链基本面。

In contrast, technical weaknesses and lower network activity caused Ethereum to fall 45% over the same period.

相反，技术弱点和较低的网络活动导致以太坊在同一时期下降了45％。

Fidelity’s analysis highlighted that technical metrics and accumulation trends remained stable, supporting mid- and long-term resilience. Ethereum closed the quarter at $2,246, reflecting broad weakness, although valuation metrics suggested potential opportunities for long-term investors.

富达的分析强调，技术指标和积累趋势保持稳定，支持中期和长期韧性。以太坊以2,246美元的价格结束了本季度，反映了广泛的弱点，尽管估值指标为长期投资者提供了潜在的机会。

Bitcoin consolidates, fundamentals intact

比特币合并，基本面完整

Despite short-term volatility, Fidelity’s report found that Bitcoin’s key technical signals remain constructive.

尽管短期波动性，富达的报告发现比特币的主要技术信号仍然建设性。

The golden cross formed in late 2024 was still intact at the end of the first quarter, although the asset traded 4% below its 200-day moving average.

2024年底成立的黄金十字架在第一季度末仍然完好无损，尽管资产的交易低于其200天移动平均线。

Additionally, on-chain data showed that long-term holders were accumulating, with illiquid supply increasing and exchange balances continuing to decline, suggesting that investors were moving Bitcoin into self-custody.

此外，链上的数据表明，长期持有人正在积累，流动性供应不断增加，交换余额继续下降，这表明投资者正在将比特币转移到自我custody中。

Fidelity noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, used to measure valuation relative to realized value, declined but remained neutral, indicating profit margins had compressed without triggering a broad selloff.

富达指出，比特币的MVRV Z得分用于衡量相对于已实现价值的估值，但保持中立状态，表明利润率已压缩而没有触发广泛的抛售。

Similarly, the Reserve Risk metric suggested favorable long-term risk-reward conditions, supported by macro factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional adoption.

同样，储备风险指标提出了有利的长期风险奖励条件，并得到了诸如潜在的美联储削减税率和机构采用等宏观因素的支持。

Miner’s health also remained stable. Although profitability declined compared to the last quarter of 2024, miner revenue stayed above 365-day averages, and hash rate growth continued at a healthy pace.

矿工的健康也保持稳定。尽管与2024年的最后一个季度相比，盈利能力下降，但矿工收入保持在365天以上，哈希率增长持续了健康的速度。

The Puell Multiple showed that mining returns stayed close to historical norms, reflecting resilience in mining operations despite the April 2024 halving.

PUELL多重多重的表明，采矿收益保持接近历史规范，这反映了尽管2024年4月减半，但仍反映了采矿业务的弹性。

Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase could create opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate, with support levels near $86,000 and $88,500 representing important technical thresholds.

菲德利（Fidelity）得出结论，比特币目前的合并阶段可以为长期投资者积累机会，支持水平接近86,000美元和88,500美元，代表着重要的技术门槛。

Ethereum faces short-term weakness

以太坊面临短期弱点

Ethereum’s sharp price decline in the first quarter resulted in deteriorating short-term technical signals. ETH fell below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, and a death cross pattern formed in early March.

以太坊在第一季度的急剧下降导致短期技术信号恶化。 ETH低于其200天和50天的移动平均值，并于3月初形成了死亡交叉模式。

Fidelity assigned Ethereum a negative short-term outlook, reflecting these technical weaknesses and declining network activity.

富达为以太坊分配了负面的短期前景，反映了这些技术弱点和网络活动的下降。

However, valuation and network fundamentals painted a more complex picture. Fidelity reported that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score entered the “undervalued” zone in March, a historical association with long-term accumulation phases.

但是，估值和网络基本面绘制了更复杂的图片。富达（Fidelity）报告说，以太坊的MVRV Z得分在3月进入了“被低估的”区域，这是一个具有长期积累阶段的历史关联。

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also moved into capitulation territory, suggesting current prices were near historic lows relative to past cycles.

净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）指标也进入了投降领域，这表明当前价格相对于过去的周期而言是历史低谷。

Activity on Ethereum’s base layer showed modest declines in new addresses, active addresses, and transaction counts during the first quarter, while layer 2 transaction volumes fell 11%, marking a break from previous growth trends.

以太坊基础层的活动在第一季度的新地址，主动地址和交易计数中显示出适度的下降，而第2层交易量下降了11％，这标志着以前的增长趋势有所突破。

Fidelity noted that upcoming developments such as the Pectra upgrade, which will double blob capacity, could be critical for reaccelerating network activity.

富达指出，即将到来的发展（例如Pectra升级）将倍增斑点容量，这对于重新计算网络活动至关重要。

Staking participation rebounded modestly after a rare decline in 2024’s last quarter, and network issuance dynamics shifted slightly inflationary, with an annualized inflation rate of 0.63% during the quarter.

在2024年的上个季度罕见下降后，Staking参与反弹，而网络发行动态略有变化，该季度的通货膨胀率为0.63％。

Fidelity attributed this change to higher staking participation and lower transaction fees, which reduced the volume of ETH burned.

保真度将这种变化归因于较高的积分参与和较低的交易费用，从而减少了ETH燃烧的量。

Investor outlook for Q2

第二季度投资者前景

For Bitcoin, Fidelity sees a neutral short-term environment but maintains a positive stance over medium- and long-term horizons based on strong on-chain data and continued institutional momentum.

对于比特币，富达是一个中性的短期环境，但基于强大的链上数据和持续的机构动力，对中和长期视野保持了积极的立场。

The report advised investors to monitor support levels and potential macroeconomic catalysts, such as shifts in monetary policy and government initiatives.

该报告建议投资者监控支持水平和潜在的宏观经济催化剂，例如货币政策和政府倡议的转变。

Meanwhile, it warned about Ethereum’s short-term prospects as technical weakness persists. However, the firm suggested that current valuation metrics present an attractive entry point for long-term investors, particularly if upcoming network upgrades and improvements in L2 activity materialize.

同时，它警告以太坊的短期前景，因为技术弱点仍然存在。但是，该公司建议当前的估值指标为长期投资者提供了一个有吸引力的切入点，尤其是在即将到来的网络升级和L2活动的改进时。

The Fidelity report concluded that while Bitcoin shows signs of stability amid consolidation, Ethereum may offer contrarian value opportunities for investors willing to navigate short-term volatility.

富达报告得出的结论是，尽管比特币在合并中显示出稳定的迹象，但以太坊可能会为愿意导航短期波动性的投资者提供逆势价值机会。