第一季度比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的對比表現導致了不同的前景

第一季度比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的對比表現導致了第二季度的不同前景

The contrasting performances of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the first quarter led to divergent outlooks in the second quarter, according to Fidelity Digital Assets in an April 28 report.

根據Fidelity Digital Assets在4月28日的報告中，比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的表現在第二季度導致了不同的前景。

Bitcoin began the year trading at $82,560, sustaining a decline of over 20% from its December 2024 all-time high of $108,000. However, the flagship crypto maintained strong on-chain fundamentals.

比特幣的開始年度為82,560美元，比2024年12月的歷史最高高點的下降超過20％。但是，旗艦加密貨幣保持強大的鍊鍊基本面。

In contrast, technical weaknesses and lower network activity caused Ethereum to fall 45% over the same period.

相反，技術弱點和較低的網絡活動導致以太坊在同一時期下降了45％。

Fidelity’s analysis highlighted that technical metrics and accumulation trends remained stable, supporting mid- and long-term resilience. Ethereum closed the quarter at $2,246, reflecting broad weakness, although valuation metrics suggested potential opportunities for long-term investors.

富達的分析強調，技術指標和積累趨勢保持穩定，支持中期和長期韌性。以太坊以2,246美元的價格結束了本季度，反映了廣泛的弱點，儘管估值指標為長期投資者提供了潛在的機會。

Bitcoin consolidates, fundamentals intact

比特幣合併，基本面完整

Despite short-term volatility, Fidelity’s report found that Bitcoin’s key technical signals remain constructive.

儘管短期波動性，富達的報告發現比特幣的主要技術信號仍然建設性。

The golden cross formed in late 2024 was still intact at the end of the first quarter, although the asset traded 4% below its 200-day moving average.

2024年底成立的黃金十字架在第一季度末仍然完好無損，儘管資產的交易低於其200天移動平均線。

Additionally, on-chain data showed that long-term holders were accumulating, with illiquid supply increasing and exchange balances continuing to decline, suggesting that investors were moving Bitcoin into self-custody.

此外，鏈上的數據表明，長期持有人正在積累，流動性供應不斷增加，交換餘額繼續下降，這表明投資者正在將比特幣轉移到自我custody中。

Fidelity noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, used to measure valuation relative to realized value, declined but remained neutral, indicating profit margins had compressed without triggering a broad selloff.

富達指出，比特幣的MVRV Z得分用於衡量相對於已實現價值的估值，但保持中立狀態，表明利潤率已壓縮而沒有觸發廣泛的拋售。

Similarly, the Reserve Risk metric suggested favorable long-term risk-reward conditions, supported by macro factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional adoption.

同樣，儲備風險指標提出了有利的長期風險獎勵條件，並得到了諸如潛在的美聯儲削減稅率和機構採用等宏觀因素的支持。

Miner’s health also remained stable. Although profitability declined compared to the last quarter of 2024, miner revenue stayed above 365-day averages, and hash rate growth continued at a healthy pace.

礦工的健康也保持穩定。儘管與2024年的最後一個季度相比，盈利能力下降，但礦工收入保持在365天以上，哈希率增長持續了健康的速度。

The Puell Multiple showed that mining returns stayed close to historical norms, reflecting resilience in mining operations despite the April 2024 halving.

PUELL多重多重的表明，採礦收益保持接近歷史規範，這反映了儘管2024年4月減半，但仍反映了採礦業務的彈性。

Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase could create opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate, with support levels near $86,000 and $88,500 representing important technical thresholds.

菲德利（Fidelity）得出結論，比特幣目前的合併階段可以為長期投資者積累機會，支持水平接近86,000美元和88,500美元，代表著重要的技術門檻。

Ethereum faces short-term weakness

以太坊面臨短期弱點

Ethereum’s sharp price decline in the first quarter resulted in deteriorating short-term technical signals. ETH fell below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, and a death cross pattern formed in early March.

以太坊在第一季度的急劇下降導致短期技術信號惡化。 ETH低於其200天和50天的移動平均值，並於3月初形成了死亡交叉模式。

Fidelity assigned Ethereum a negative short-term outlook, reflecting these technical weaknesses and declining network activity.

富達為以太坊分配了負面的短期前景，反映了這些技術弱點和網絡活動的下降。

However, valuation and network fundamentals painted a more complex picture. Fidelity reported that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score entered the “undervalued” zone in March, a historical association with long-term accumulation phases.

但是，估值和網絡基本面繪製了更複雜的圖片。富達（Fidelity）報告說，以太坊的MVRV Z得分在3月進入了“被低估的”區域，這是一個具有長期積累階段的歷史關聯。

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also moved into capitulation territory, suggesting current prices were near historic lows relative to past cycles.

淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）指標也進入了投降領域，這表明當前價格相對於過去的周期而言是歷史低谷。

Activity on Ethereum’s base layer showed modest declines in new addresses, active addresses, and transaction counts during the first quarter, while layer 2 transaction volumes fell 11%, marking a break from previous growth trends.

以太坊基礎層的活動在第一季度的新地址，主動地址和交易計數中顯示出適度的下降，而第2層交易量下降了11％，這標誌著以前的增長趨勢有所突破。

Fidelity noted that upcoming developments such as the Pectra upgrade, which will double blob capacity, could be critical for reaccelerating network activity.

富達指出，即將到來的發展（例如Pectra升級）將倍增斑點容量，這對於重新計算網絡活動至關重要。

Staking participation rebounded modestly after a rare decline in 2024’s last quarter, and network issuance dynamics shifted slightly inflationary, with an annualized inflation rate of 0.63% during the quarter.

在2024年的上個季度罕見下降後，Staking參與反彈，而網絡發行動態略有變化，該季度的通貨膨脹率為0.63％。

Fidelity attributed this change to higher staking participation and lower transaction fees, which reduced the volume of ETH burned.

保真度將這種變化歸因於較高的積分參與和較低的交易費用，從而減少了ETH燃燒的量。

Investor outlook for Q2

第二季度投資者前景

For Bitcoin, Fidelity sees a neutral short-term environment but maintains a positive stance over medium- and long-term horizons based on strong on-chain data and continued institutional momentum.

對於比特幣，富達是一個中性的短期環境，但基於強大的鏈上數據和持續的機構動力，對中和長期視野保持了積極的立場。

The report advised investors to monitor support levels and potential macroeconomic catalysts, such as shifts in monetary policy and government initiatives.

該報告建議投資者監控支持水平和潛在的宏觀經濟催化劑，例如貨幣政策和政府倡議的轉變。

Meanwhile, it warned about Ethereum’s short-term prospects as technical weakness persists. However, the firm suggested that current valuation metrics present an attractive entry point for long-term investors, particularly if upcoming network upgrades and improvements in L2 activity materialize.

同時，它警告以太坊的短期前景，因為技術弱點仍然存在。但是，該公司建議當前的估值指標為長期投資者提供了一個有吸引力的切入點，尤其是在即將到來的網絡升級和L2活動的改進時。

The Fidelity report concluded that while Bitcoin shows signs of stability amid consolidation, Ethereum may offer contrarian value opportunities for investors willing to navigate short-term volatility.

富達報告得出的結論是，儘管比特幣在合併中顯示出穩定的跡象，但以太坊可能會為願意導航短期波動性的投資者提供逆勢價值機會。