为什么 Celestia (TIA) 值得买入

在 Twitter 上分享的一份分析中，Stix（一家专门从事私人加密货币交易流动性解决方案的领先场外交易平台）首席执行官 Taran Sabharwal 提供了对计划于 2024 年 10 月 31 日推出的 Celestia (TIA) 代币解锁动态的见解。

Celestia (TIA) has been a hot topic in the crypto community, especially with the upcoming token unlock scheduled for October 31, 2024. While many have anticipated the event, differing perspectives have emerged regarding its potential impact on TIA’s price action.

Celestia (TIA) 一直是加密社区的热门话题，特别是计划于 2024 年 10 月 31 日进行的代币解锁。虽然许多人都预料到了这一事件，但关于其对 TIA 价格走势的潜在影响，出现了不同的观点。

In an analysis shared on Twitter, Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix — a leading OTC trading platform specializing in liquidity solutions for private crypto transactions — provided insights into the unlock dynamics. His assessment suggests that the market may be underestimating the potential buying pressure on TIA heading into November.

在 Twitter 上分享的一份分析中，Stix 的首席执行官 Taran Sabharwal 提供了对解锁动态的见解。 Stix 是一家领先的场外交易平台，专注于私人加密货币交易的流动性解决方案。他的评估表明，市场可能低估了 TIA 进入 11 月份的潜在购买压力。

“TIA – an OTC story,” Sabharwal began. “We used on-chain data (via @celenium_io API) to judge exactly how the unlock dynamics may shape TIA’s PA going into Nov. The results are in the table above. We’ve summarized that a total of 92.3M TIA will be liquid post unlock, which would act as the upper bound of overall spot selling pressure.”

“TIA——一个非处方药的故事，”Sabharwal 开始说道。 “我们使用链上数据（通过 @celenium_io API）来准确判断解锁动态如何影响 TIA 进入 11 月的 PA。结果如上表所示。我们总结称，解锁后总共 9230 万个 TIA 将具有流动性，这将作为整体现货抛售压力的上限。”

Interestingly, this figure accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocks, suggesting that the actual sell pressure may be only half of what the market has been anticipating. Sabharwal highlighted that the real increase in circulating supply compared to the current supply indicates a 41.8% dilution.

有趣的是，这个数字占悬崖释放总量的不到50%，这表明实际的抛售压力可能只有市场预期的一半。 Sabharwal 强调，与当前供应量相比，流通供应量的实际增长表明稀释度为 41.8%。

A significant factor in this dynamic is the activity of OTC buyers who acquired large amounts of the initial unlock and hedged on perpetual futures, causing open interest to surge in recent months. “We expect many of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure,” he explained. This unwinding could serve as a bullish signal for spot buyers due to the potential reset in funding rates.

这种动态的一个重要因素是场外交易买家的活动，他们获得了大量的初始解锁并对永续合约进行对冲，导致近几个月的未平仓合约激增。 “我们预计其中许多空头将继续减少，部分抵消现货抛售压力，”他解释道。由于融资利率可能会重置，这种平仓可能对现货买家来说是一个看涨信号。

Sabharwal’s analysis included several key assumptions. OTC round buyers possess an 11 million TIA cliff unlock, included in the non-staked token category since these tokens originated from treasury wallets not tagged on the blockchain explorer. His team mapped a total of 292 vesting wallets but acknowledged some gaps, which were also included in the non-staked category.

萨巴瓦尔的分析包括几个关键假设。 OTC 轮买家拥有 1100 万个 TIA 悬崖解锁，包含在非质押代币类别中，因为这些代币源自未在区块链浏览器上标记的金库钱包。他的团队总共绘制了 292 个归属钱包，但也承认存在一些差距，这些差距也包含在非质押类别中。

Reflecting on TIA’s OTC history on Stix, Sabharwal observed that Celestia has been one of the most actively traded assets in the OTC market this cycle. Early in the cycle, it offered an attractive opportunity for directional buyers, while sellers were eager to realize large unrealized profits without expecting an imminent bull market in Q3 2023.

Sabharwal 回顾了 TIA 在 Stix 上的场外交易历史，发现 Celestia 是本周期场外交易市场上交易最活跃的资产之一。在周期的早期，它为定向买家提供了一个有吸引力的机会，而卖家则渴望实现巨额未实现利润，而不期望 2023 年第三季度牛市即将到来。

“In Q1 2024, the bull had matured and TIA rallied to $20+. OTC activity was minimal here as sellers didn’t want to take larger discounts (40+%) and buyers didn’t want to bid higher than the $8.5 ceiling,” he continued. “We saw almost no activity as sellers were ‘feeling’ rich and wanted to stay risk-on, despite having the opportunity to realize 100-800x on their investments.”

“2024 年第一季度，牛市已经成熟，TIA 反弹至 20 美元以上。这里的场外交易活动很少，因为卖家不想接受更大的折扣（40% 以上），而买家也不想出价高于 8.5 美元的上限，”他继续说道。 “我们几乎没有看到任何活动，因为尽管有机会实现 100-800 倍的投资，但卖家‘感觉’很富有，并希望保持冒险精神。”

The dynamics shifted when TIA fell below $5. This was around the time when the Celestia Foundation started raising its OTC round of $100M at $3. “The vesting for buyers was the same as those of private investors—33% unlock on Oct 31 2024 (<2 months from the round) and a 12-month linear unlock,” Sabharwal noted.

当 TIA 跌破 5 美元时，动态发生了变化。就在那时，Celestia 基金会开始以 3 美元的价格筹集 1 亿美元的场外交易资金。 Sabharwal 指出：“买家的归属与私人投资者的归属相同——2024 年 10 月 31 日解锁 33%（距离本轮不到 2 个月），并且线性解锁 12 个月。”

During the third and fourth quarters of 2024, aggressive OTC trading activity resumed, with sellers offloading various positions. Stix alone facilitated approximately $60 million in TIA volume since July, suggesting that total trading volume could exceed $80 million across all liquidity channels, assuming Stix holds a 75% market share in the OTC space.

2024 年第三和第四季度，场外交易活动恢复活跃，卖家纷纷抛售头寸。自 7 月以来，仅 Stix 就促成了约 6000 万美元的 TIA 交易量，这表明假设 Stix 在场外交易领域占据 75% 的市场份额，所有流动性渠道的总交易量可能超过 8000 万美元。

Summing up his analysis, Sabharwal concluded: “TLDR: Shorts will keep unwinding into the unlock and funding rates may reset to 0 or positive. People who missed the 9th October unstaking deadline may also have unstaked during October, causing further spot supply (ready to be sold) going into November. Either way, the supply shock is massive and it’s been the most broadcasted unlock of this cycle. That, coupled with suppressing OTC discounts, may create a lot of action for the coin.”

Sabharwal 总结了他的分析：“TLDR：空头将继续平仓，资金利率可能会重置为 0 或正数。错过 10 月 9 日解除质押截止日期的人也可能在 10 月份解除质押，导致现货供应（准备出售）进入 11 月。无论哪种方式，供应冲击都是巨大的，并且是本周期中广播最多的一次。再加上抑制场外交易折扣，可能会给代币带来很多影响。”

Renowned crypto analyst Will Clemente also weighed in on the developments via Twitter: “Great piece on $TIA OTC activity by Taran from Stix. TLDR: OTC discount to spot in the private market has compressed over the last year, showing growing demand into the unlock. Stix alone has done $60mm in TIA OTC volume since July.”

著名加密货币分析师 Will Clemente 也通过 Twitter 评论了事态发展：“Stix 的 Taran 发表了有关 $TIA OTC 活动的精彩文章。 TLDR：去年以来，私募市场上的场外交易对现货的折扣有所压缩，这表明解锁需求不断增长。自 7 月以来，仅 Stix 的 TIA 场外交易量就达到了 60 美元。”

Clemente added his perspective on the potential market impact: “I think this BTC price action has further slid the probability of Thursday’s TIA unlock being bearish towards ‘no’. 6 months of reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs short, BTC nearing ATHs. Am long rn.”

Clemente 补充了他对潜在市场影响的看法：“我认为 BTC 的价格走势进一步降低了周四 TIA 解锁从看跌转向‘否’的可能性。在 80% 的回撤后，经过 6 个月的重新积累，大量的场外交易量，加密货币历史上最广泛的电报解锁，还差 9 个数字，BTC 接近 ATH。我很长。”

At press time,

截至记者发稿时，