比特币突破了$ 100000，达到$ 104000

本周比特币打破了$ 100000的水平，达到了104000美元，然后调节至103000美元。此举是在有消息称美国和中国官员将坐在瑞士谈论可能的贸易协定之后的。

Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 level this week, reaching $104,000 before moderating to about $103,000. The move came after news that U.S. and Chinese officials would sit down in Switzerland to talk about a possible trade agreement. Markets responded promptly. Optimism returned, and Bitcoin rose accordingly. But analysts are seeing beyond the headlines. Global liquidity is the real story.

本周比特币打破了100,000美元的水平，达到104,000美元，然后减少了约103,000美元。此举是在有消息称美国和中国官员将坐在瑞士谈论可能的贸易协定之后的。市场迅速做出了回应。乐观恢复了，比特币相应地升起。但是分析师超越了头条新闻。全球流动性是真实的故事。

Global M2 Reaches $111 Trillion

全球M2达到111万亿美元

Julien Bittel, a macro researcher at Global Macro Investor, is of the opinion that global M2 money supply is a good leading indicator of where Bitcoin is going. He presented a chart illustrating a 12-week lag between increasing M2 and the price of the top crypto. Briefly put, when M2 increases, Bitcoin follows around three months later.

全球宏观投资者的宏观研究人员朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）认为，全球M2货币供应是比特币要去的好指标。他提供了一个图表，说明了M2的增加与顶级加密货币的价格之间存在12周的滞后。简而言之，当M2增加时，比特币大约在三个月后。

Lots of you have been asking for the updated Global M2 vs. Bitcoin chart. Well, here it is…

你们中的许多人一直在要求更新的全局M2与比特币图表。好吧，这是…

And yes – it still tells the same story:

是的 - 它仍然讲述相同的故事：

We’re going higher… pic.twitter.com/kv7QSE9iGN

我们要更高... pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) May 9, 2025

-Julien Tiny，CFA（@bittjulien）2025年5月9日

Between early 2023 and early 2024, global M2 increased from $98 trillion to slightly over $108 trillion. Bitcoin came along, finally breaking above $100,000. But mid-2024, M2 ceased its ascension for a period.

在2023年初至2024年初之间，全球M2从98万亿美元增加到略高于1008万亿美元。比特币出现，终于打破了100,000美元以上。但是2024年中期，M2停止了一段时间。

Bitcoin also tapered off, falling below $80,000 during that period. Bittel referred to that range as a consolidation phase. Today, M2 is moving once again—quickly. It’s passed $111 trillion. If that trend continues, BTC could keep rising into mid-2025.

比特币也逐渐减少，在此期间下跌低于80,000美元。 Bittel将该范围称为合并阶段。今天，M2再次移动 - 质量。它通过了111万亿美元。如果这种趋势持续下去，BTC可以继续升级到2025年中。

“We’re going higher,” Bittel said, pointing to the strong rise in global M2 as the signal.

贝特尔说：“我们要高得更高。”他指出，全球M2作为信号的强劲增长。

Others Think Bitcoin Is The Top Dog

其他人认为比特币是顶级狗

Not everyone agrees with Bittel’s timeline. Analyst Benjamin Cohen raised doubts about the idea that the crypto asset always lags behind liquidity changes. He pointed out that Bitcoin hit its highs in 2017 and 2021 before M2 peaked. That doesn’t fit the theory of M2 leading BTC by 12 weeks.

并非每个人都同意Bittel的时间表。分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cohen）对加密资产始终落后于流动性变化的想法提出了怀疑。他指出，在M2达到顶峰之前，比特币在2017年和2021年达到了最高点。在12周时，这与M2领先的BTC理论不符。

Cohen provided an alternative perspective. He believes Bitcoin could very well lead, with changes to M2 appearing later. If that’s the case, then the coin’s recent ascent is perhaps forewarning us that global liquidity could decrease in the coming months.

科恩提供了另一种观点。他认为比特币很可能会导致M2的变化。如果是这样，那么硬币最近的上升也许使我们有力地说，在未来几个月中，全球流动性可能会减少。

What if #Bitcoin leads liquidity, rather than lags it?

如果#BitCoin导致流动性而不是落后该怎么办？

A lot of people show this chart, where they offset global M2 by 3-4 months and show BTC following it.

许多人显示了这张图表，在该图表中，他们将全球M2缩短了3-4个月，并显示了BTC之后。

The problem is that in 2021, this offset shows M2 going up for 6 months after BTC topped. pic.twitter.com/gpkbW9jboG

问题在于，在2021年，此偏移表明M2在BTC上升后持续了6个月。 pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) May 8, 2025

- 本杰明·考恩（@intocryptoverse）2025年5月8日

FTX Collapse Still Echoes

FTX崩溃仍然回荡

Cohen also referenced what occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin fell hard. That drop coincided with M2 bottoming out—but the drop persisted longer due to the FTX debacle. He maintained that Bitcoin’s price movements do not always adhere to the same timeline as M2. Exchange failures like the one experienced can disrupt the rhythm.

科恩还提到了2022年比特币跌倒时发生的事情。下降与M2触底相吻合 - 但是由于FTX崩溃，下降持续更长。他坚持认为，比特币的价格变动并不总是与M2相同的时间表。像一个经验丰富的交换失败会破坏节奏。

This perspective uncovers another type of forecast. If BTC is trailing, rather than leading, then the current rally may indicate danger on the horizon—not resilience.

这种观点发现了另一种类型的预测。如果BTC落后而不是领导，那么当前的集会可能会表明地平线上的危险，而不是弹性。