比特币将是一种糟糕的储备资产

政府维持实际和金融储备资产投资组合的原因与人们相同：你永远不知道什么时候可能会出现意外支出或收入意外短缺。

Governments are in the business of transferring spending power from some people to other people.1 The hope is that these transfers make society as a whole better off, set a reasonable floor for everyone’s living standards, and are established through a process that is accountable and transparent to the citizenry.

政府的职责是将消费能力从某些人转移到其他人。1 希望这些转移使整个社会变得更好，为每个人的生活水平设定合理的下限，并通过一个负责任和公正的过程来建立。对公民透明。

But there is no single right way to do this, so politics often involves clashes of narrow interests at least as much as disagreements over principles.2 There is always a danger that a small but organized group will try to push through changes that would benefit them at the expense of everyone else.

但没有单一的正确方法可以做到这一点，因此政治常常涉及狭隘利益的冲突，至少与原则上的分歧一样多。2总是存在这样的危险：一个小而有组织的团体会试图推动对他们有利的变革以牺牲其他人为代价。

This is the most useful perspective for understanding a proposal from Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming3 to “implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time to acquire a total stake of approximately 5% of total Bitcoin supply, mirroring the size and scope of gold reserves held by the United States”.4 Purchases of that size—by a buyer that is indifferent to value—would almost certainly push up the price, currently around $61,000, and generate a windfall for current holders. Little wonder that this idea is extremely popular among the small number of people who happen to own bitcoin.5

这是理解怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)3 的提案的最有用的视角，该提案“在规定的时间内实施 100 万单位的比特币购买计划，以获得比特币总供应量约 5% 的总股份，反映了美国持有的黄金储备的规模和范围”。4 购买如此规模的黄金（由对价值漠不关心的买家购买）几乎肯定会推高金价（目前约为 61,000 美元），并为当前持有者带来意外之财。难怪这个想法在少数拥有比特币的人中非常受欢迎。5

According to section 9 of the bill’s text, these purchases would be financed by seizing remittances and surplus funds from the Federal Reserve, but mostly by having the Fed credit the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) with hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars in exchange for revaluing its claim on the Treasury’s gold holdings. This gold is still booked at a statutory price of just $42.22/ounce, compared to a current market price of around $2,400/ounce.

根据该法案文本第9节，这些购买将通过扣押美联储的汇款和盈余资金来提供资金，但主要是通过让美联储将数千亿美元记入财政部普通账户（TGA），以换取人民币升值它对财政部持有的黄金的索取权。该黄金仍以 42.22 美元/盎司的法定价格预订，而当前市场价格约为 2,400 美元/盎司。

The plan is therefore similar to “mint the coin”, but with gold instead of platinum. I am also reminded of the way Argentina’s central bank used to book profits on its holdings dollar-denominated assets every time the peso depreciated, and then monetize those profits by printing more pesos to cover the budget deficit. Either way, once the Treasury spends the new money credited to the TGA on bitcoin, the dollars will end up on private balance sheets, most likely as interest-bearing claims on the Fed such as bank reserves or reverse repos.6 The net effect would be to create new interest-paying liabilities without any additional interest-bearing assets, limiting future remittance payments to the Treasury and commensurately increasing the federal budget deficit.

因此，该计划类似于“铸造硬币”，但用的是黄金而不是铂金。我还记得每次比索贬值时，阿根廷央行都会将其持有的以美元计价的资产记入利润，然后通过印制更多比索来弥补预算赤字，从而将这些利润货币化。无论哪种方式，一旦财政部将 TGA 贷记的新资金用于购买比特币，美元最终将出现在私人资产负债表上，最有可能作为对美联储的计息债权，例如银行准备金或逆回购。 6 净效应是是在没有任何额外生息资产的情况下创造新的付息负债，限制未来向财政部的汇款并相应增加联邦预算赤字。

It is not clear to me how any of this would “strengthen the financial condition of the United States, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty and monetary instability”, as the bill claims, although it does seem like a great way to inflate the dollar value of bitcoin and other cryptos.

我不清楚这将如何如该法案所声称的那样“加强美国的金融状况，对冲经济不确定性和货币不稳定”，尽管这似乎确实是抬高美元价值的好方法比特币和其他加密货币。

Suppose we give Lummis and her supporters the benefit of the doubt. Could there be other, legitimate, justifications for this move? This is what Lummis said in the press release announcing her proposal:

假设我们给予鲁米斯和她的支持者无罪推论。此举是否还有其他合理的理由？这是鲁米斯在宣布她的提议的新闻稿中所说的：

Establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve would firmly secure the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency into the 21st century and ensure we remain the world leader in financial innovation…The United States currently maintains strategic reserves in certain hard assets critical to American national security and independence such as gold and petroleum. Establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve to bolster the U.S. dollar with a digital hard asset will secure our nation’s standing as the global financial leader for decades to come.

建立比特币战略储备将牢牢确保美元在 21 世纪作为世界储备货币的地位，并确保我们在金融创新方面保持世界领先地位……美国目前在某些对美国国家安全和独立至关重要的硬资产中保留战略储备，例如如黄金和石油。建立战略比特币储备，以数字硬资产提振美元，将确保我们国家在未来几十年作为全球金融领导者的地位。

In her speech at the Nashville Bitcoin conference, she also said that “this is our Louisiana Purchase moment,” and implied that the rising value of the government’s bitcoin holdings would eventually allow the Treasury to buy back all of its (dollar-denominated) debt.7

在纳什维尔比特币会议上的演讲中，她还表示“这是我们的路易斯安那购买时刻”，并暗示政府持有的比特币价值不断上升，最终将使财政部能够回购所有（以美元计价）债务.7

None of this makes much sense. But it is worth thinking through why it does not make sense, because strategic stockpiles and reserve currencies are important concepts that are often misunderstood.

这些都没有多大意义。但值得思考的是，为什么它没有意义，因为战略储备和储备货币是经常被误解的重要概念。

Trying to Understand the Bitcoiners’ Argument

试图理解比特币支持者的论点

Shortly before the proposed legislation was published, Sam Lyman, the director of public policy for Riot Platforms, which mines bitcoin and manufactures electrical equipment, published an opinion column in Forbes outlining why the government should have a “strategic bitcoin reserve”. Lyman has a background in Republican politics and he was cited in a FOXBusiness article that anticipated Lummis’s announcement, which suggests that he may be among those who helped design the proposal. His thesis is that “the United States can use bitcoin’s unique properties as a form of digital gold to deter China, Russia, and other competitors from leveraging their physical gold reserves to undermine US dollar dominance”.

在拟议的立法发布前不久，开采比特币和制造电气设备的 Riot Platforms 公共政策总监 Sam Lyman 在《福布斯》上发表了一篇观点专栏，概述了为什么政府应该建立“战略比特币储备”。莱曼拥有共和党政治背景，FOXBusiness 的一篇文章对鲁米斯的声明进行了引用，这表明他可能是帮助设计该提案的人之一。他的论点是“美国可以利用比特币的独特属性作为数字黄金的一种形式，以阻止中国、俄罗斯和其他竞争对手利用其实物黄金储备来削弱美元的主导地位”。

I have no idea what that means, and Lyman’s column does not explain how this would actually work—or why it would matter either way—but he does cite a paper (from 2023) by Matthew Pines of the Bitcoin Policy Institute that has a lot more nuance. This is the key passage:

我不知道这意味着什么，莱曼的专栏没有解释这实际上是如何运作的——或者为什么这两种方式都很重要——但他确实引用了比特币政策研究所的马修·派恩斯 (Matthew Pines) 的一篇论文（2023 年），该论文有很多内容更多细微差别。这是关键段落：

Allowing Bitcoin to monetize alongside (or outpacing gold) would disproportionately benefit the U.S. (whose citizens and firms hold potentially

允许比特币与黄金一起货币化（或超过黄金）将使美国受益匪浅（美国公民和企业拥有潜在的利益）