一项新的研究发现，比特币采矿禁令可能会对具有气候意识的政府产生适得其反的效果

比特币网络的密集能源使用可能会促使政府出于环境问题而禁止采矿。一篇新的研究论文表明，这可能是一个错误，具体取决于司法管辖区。

Some governments may consider banning Bitcoin (BTC) mining due to concerns over the industry’s carbon footprint, but a new study suggests that such measures could actually backfire in some jurisdictions.

由于担心该行业的碳足迹，一些政府可能会考虑禁止比特币（BTC）开采，但一项新的研究表明，此类措施实际上可能在某些司法管辖区适得其反。

According to the study, titled “The Unintended Carbon Consequences of Bitcoin Mining Bans: A Paradox in Environmental Policy,” a blanket ban on bitcoin mining can lead to an increase in the industry’s overall carbon emissions.

根据这项题为“比特币采矿禁令的意外碳后果：环境政策的悖论”的研究，全面禁止比特币采矿可能会导致该行业总体碳排放量的增加。

The study was conducted by crypto research firm Exponential Science and published on Thursday. It found that when miners are forced to relocate due to a mining ban, they may move to new regions with electric grids that rely on fossil fuels.

该研究由加密货币研究公司 Exponential Science 进行，并于周四发表。研究发现，当矿工因采矿禁令而被迫搬迁时，他们可能会搬到电网依赖化石燃料的新地区。

“Bitcoin mining has seen a rough couple of years from a PR perspective, with respect to its environmental credentials,” Juan Ignacio Ibañez, one of the paper's contributors, told CoinDesk.

该论文的撰稿人之一胡安·伊格纳西奥·伊巴涅斯 (Juan Ignacio Ibañez) 告诉 CoinDesk：“从公关角度来看，比特币挖矿在环境方面经历了艰难的几年。”

“Although it is true that proof of work mining is an energy-intensive activity, this does not directly translate into carbon emissions or environmental harm.”

“虽然工作量证明挖矿确实是一项能源密集型活动，但这并不会直接转化为碳排放或环境危害。”

The carbon footprint of bitcoin mining depends on the source of energy used. A coal-powered electric grid will obviously produce more carbon emissions than a hydro-powered one.

比特币挖矿的碳足迹取决于所使用的能源来源。煤电电网显然会比水电电网产生更多的碳排放。

“Mining bans can have the unfortunate effect of driving the industry away from green sources of energy, hence increasing the global emissions from the network,” Ibañez said.

伊巴涅斯说：“采矿禁令可能会产生不幸的影响，导致该行业远离绿色能源，从而增加全球网络的排放量。”

The study’s findings suggest that the effectiveness of a mining ban from an environmental perspective will vary widely depending on the country.

研究结果表明，从环境角度来看，采矿禁令的有效性因国家而异。

The team’s model showed that a mining ban in Kazakhstan, for example, would reduce the Bitcoin network’s global annual carbon emissions by 7.63%. The same ban in Paraguay, however, would increase emissions by 4.32%.

例如，该团队的模型显示，哈萨克斯坦的采矿禁令将使比特币网络的全球年度碳排放量减少 7.63%。然而，巴拉圭的同样禁令将使排放量增加 4.32%。

Overall, mining bans would be more effective, from an environmental perspective, in countries such as China, Russia, and Malaysia, with Kazakhstan taking the lead in that category. They will backfire, however, in most of the Americas and in Europe, with a special emphasis on Nordic countries and Canada.

总体而言，从环境角度来看，中国、俄罗斯和马来西亚等国家的采矿禁令更为有效，其中哈萨克斯坦在这方面处于领先地位。然而，在美洲大部分地区和欧洲，尤其是北欧国家和加拿大，它们将会适得其反。

But even within the same nation, the situation may vary from region to region.

但即使在同一个国家内，不同地区的情况也可能有所不同。

In the U.S., for example, a mining ban in Kentucky or Georgia would likely have a positive impact in terms of emissions, while bans in New York, Texas, the state of Washington, and California would be detrimental.

例如，在美国，肯塔基州或佐治亚州的采矿禁令可能会对排放产生积极影响，而纽约州、德克萨斯州、华盛顿州和加利福尼亚州的采矿禁令可能会产生有害影响。

Interestingly, a similar dynamic is playing out in China. The Chinese government famously banned crypto mining in 2021, but mining models now agree that some Chinese miners, instead of relocating, simply went underground and continued to operate illegally.

有趣的是，类似的动态也在中国上演。中国政府在 2021 年禁止了加密货币挖矿，但现在的挖矿模型一致认为，一些中国矿工没有搬迁，而是转入地下并继续非法作业。

The result? The cessation of all mining activity in the province of Xinjiang could still result in a 6.9% reduction in global annual emissions, while a similar move in Sichuan would cause almost a 3.8% increase.

结果呢？新疆省停止所有采矿活动仍可能导致全球年排放量减少 6.9%，而四川省的类似举措将导致全球年排放量增加近 3.8%。

“What this underscores is the importance of science-informed regulation,” Nikhil Vadgama, co-founder of Exponential Science, told CoinDesk. “Emerging technologies such as blockchain are complex systems, and thus regulatory interventions can produce a butterfly effect” — meaning policy decisions can have unintended, far-reaching consequences.

Exponential Science 联合创始人 Nikhil Vadgama 告诉 CoinDesk：“这强调了科学监管的重要性。” “区块链等新兴技术是复杂的系统，因此监管干预可能会产生蝴蝶效应”——这意味着政策决策可能会产生意想不到的深远影响。

For Ibañez, one of the takeaways of the research is that, as an increasing number of bitcoin mining operations come online, new jurisdictions will grow to have an outsized impact on the network’s total carbon emissions.

对于 Ibañez 来说，这项研究的要点之一是，随着越来越多的比特币挖矿业务上线，新的司法管辖区将对网络总碳排放量产生巨大影响。

“Currently, our model does not place a large effect on Sweden, but it's a safe bet to think that more and more miners may move there if conditions continue to be so favorable. Other countries such as Iceland and potentially Argentina could enter the radar soon,” Ibañez said.

“目前，我们的模型并没有对瑞典产生很大影响，但可以肯定的是，如果条件继续如此有利，越来越多的矿工可能会搬到那里。冰岛和阿根廷等其他国家可能很快就会进入关注范围，”伊巴涅斯说。

The full version of the study can be found here.

该研究的完整版本可以在这里找到。

By Tom Carreras

汤姆·卡雷拉斯

Markets Reporter

市场记者

Tom Carreras is a markets reporter for CoinDesk. He holds BTC, ETH and SOL above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1,000.

Tom Carreras 是 CoinDesk 的市场记者。他持有的 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 超过了 CoinDesk 的披露门槛 1,000 美元。