BTCOIN（BTC）的目标价为$ 110,000- $ 120,000到第二季度2025，随着实现的价格指标强大的长期支持

比特币同比收益和实现价格指标信号的强烈长期支持，并建议BTC目前被低估了。

Key Takeaways:

关键要点：

Bitcoin’s year-over-year return and realized price metric signal strong long-term support from holders and suggest that BTC is currently undervalued.

比特币同比收益和实现价格指标信号的强烈长期支持，并建议BTC目前被低估了。

Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.

标准特许估计，到第二季度2025年，比特币价格目标在110,000美元至120,000美元的区域中。

Positive funding rates point to a potential long squeeze to $90,500.

积极的资金率指向潜在的长时间挤压到90,500美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week of April 28 near $94,000, delivering an impressive year-over-year total return of 53.61%.

比特币（BTC）于4月28日收于94,000美元，同比总回报率为53.61％。

Since the last halving in 2024, the market has shifted from the early 2024 euphoric phase to a "mature bull trend" based on onchain growth, rather than speculative frenzy.

自2024年上次减半以来，市场已从2024年代初的欣喜阶段转变为基于Onchain增长而不是投机性疯狂的“成熟牛趋势”。

Bitcoin fundamentals triumph over fear and speculation

比特币基本面胜过恐惧和猜测

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the year-on-year (YoY) realized price, which measures the average price at which BTC was last moved, has surged by 61.82%.

比特币研究员小阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.

This outperforms the YoY market value to realized value (MVRV) decline of 8.98%, which indicates that long-term holders are raising the base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the cycle.

这表现优于实现价值（MVRV）下降8.98％的可能的市场价值，这表明长期持有人的基本价格速度快于投机价格上涨，这是该周期的健康信号。

The negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that precedes significant rallies. This compression of value leaves room for further upside, with analysts aiming for new highs above $110,000 if demand accelerates.

负MVRV表明比特币与一年前相比，比特币的交易低于其基本价值，这种模式在重大集会之前。价值的压缩为进一步的上升空间留出了空间，分析师的目标是增加110,000美元以上的新高点。

Similarly, Bitcoin’s realized price by cohort shows a cooling speculative premium, as one-month holders’ cost basis is 5% lower than the six-month cohort. The current market closely resembles past accumulation phases, with only five to six weeks remaining until the average 180-day point, where momentum tends to escalate.

同样，比特币通过队列实现的价格显示出冷却投机性的保费，因为一个月持有人的成本基础比六个月的队列低5％。当前的市场与过去的积累阶段非常相似，只有五到六个星期剩下五到六个星期，直到平均180天的势头趋向于升级。

This bullish timeline aligns with Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, who predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $120,000 by Q2 2025.

这个看涨的时间表与标准宪章的数字资产研究负责人杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）保持一致，他预测，到2025年第2季度，比特币将达到新历史最高的120,000美元。

Kendrick attributes this surge to strategic reallocation from US assets, noting a high US Treasury term premium, which correlates with BTC's price, and time-of-day trading patterns indicate that US investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump's trade war began on April 2.

肯德里克（Kendrick）将这一激增归因于美国资产的战略重新分配，指出美国财政期限很高的期限溢价与BTC的价格相关，并且交易方式表明，自4月2日唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trusts）总统的贸易战争开始以来，美国投资者正在寻求非美国人的资产。

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

相关：Presto Research负责人说，比特币可能在2025年达到21万美元

Bitcoin futures market hints at ‘long squeeze’ below $91,000

比特币期货市场暗示“ Long Squeeze”低于$ 91,000

Bitcoin's funding rate has turned positive, indicating a dominance of long positions as traders bet on price rises above $90,000.

比特币的融资率变成了积极的态度，这表明长期以来一直处于统治地位，因为交易者的价格上涨了90,000美元以上。

Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin's funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions of a potential long squeeze that could push prices toward $97,000. However, the market dynamics shifted with the funding rate flipping positive, which could lead to a long squeeze.

在4月24日至4月25日之间，比特币的融资率短暂变成负面，引发了可能的长期挤压讨论，该挤压可能会将价格推向97,000美元。但是，市场动态随着筹资速度呈阳性而变化，这可能会导致长期挤压。

A Long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.

长期挤压是一个市场事件，突然的价格下跌会导致过度杠杆交易者出售，从而通过大规模清算扩大了下降。

Bitcoin prices have dropped 1.58% after the New York market session opened on April 28, and BTC might drop as low as $90,500 over the next few days.

在纽约市场会议于4月28日开放之后，比特币价格下跌了1.58％，在接下来的几天内，BTC的价格可能低至90,500美元。

As illustrated in the chart, bullish momentum is beginning to fade, and BTC could re-test the fair-value gap (FVG) between $90,500 and 88,750 on the 4-hour chart.

如图所示，看涨的势头开始逐渐消失，而BTC可以在4小时图表中重新测试在90,500美元至88,750美元之间的公平价值差距（FVG）。

The price also formed a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) after the price failed to hold a position above $95,000.

价格还以相对强度指数（RSI）的价格占据95,000美元以上的职位后，价格还形成了看跌差异。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。