BTCOIN（BTC）的目標價為$ 110,000- $ 120,000到第二季度2025，隨著實現的價格指標強大的長期支持

比特幣同比收益和實現價格指標信號的強烈長期支持，並建議BTC目前被低估了。

Key Takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Bitcoin’s year-over-year return and realized price metric signal strong long-term support from holders and suggest that BTC is currently undervalued.

比特幣同比收益和實現價格指標信號的強烈長期支持，並建議BTC目前被低估了。

Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.

標準特許估計，到第二季度2025年，比特幣價格目標在110,000美元至120,000美元的區域中。

Positive funding rates point to a potential long squeeze to $90,500.

積極的資金率指向潛在的長時間擠壓到90,500美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week of April 28 near $94,000, delivering an impressive year-over-year total return of 53.61%.

比特幣（BTC）於4月28日收於94,000美元，同比總回報率為53.61％。

Since the last halving in 2024, the market has shifted from the early 2024 euphoric phase to a "mature bull trend" based on onchain growth, rather than speculative frenzy.

自2024年上次減半以來，市場已從2024年代初的欣喜階段轉變為基於Onchain增長而不是投機性瘋狂的“成熟牛趨勢”。

Bitcoin fundamentals triumph over fear and speculation

比特幣基本面勝過恐懼和猜測

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the year-on-year (YoY) realized price, which measures the average price at which BTC was last moved, has surged by 61.82%.

比特幣研究員小阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.

This outperforms the YoY market value to realized value (MVRV) decline of 8.98%, which indicates that long-term holders are raising the base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the cycle.

這表現優於實現價值（MVRV）下降8.98％的可能的市場價值，這表明長期持有人的基本價格速度快於投機價格上漲，這是該週期的健康信號。

The negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that precedes significant rallies. This compression of value leaves room for further upside, with analysts aiming for new highs above $110,000 if demand accelerates.

負MVRV表明比特幣與一年前相比，比特幣的交易低於其基本價值，這種模式在重大集會之前。價值的壓縮為進一步的上升空間留出了空間，分析師的目標是增加110,000美元以上的新高點。

Similarly, Bitcoin’s realized price by cohort shows a cooling speculative premium, as one-month holders’ cost basis is 5% lower than the six-month cohort. The current market closely resembles past accumulation phases, with only five to six weeks remaining until the average 180-day point, where momentum tends to escalate.

同樣，比特幣通過隊列實現的價格顯示出冷卻投機性的保費，因為一個月持有人的成本基礎比六個月的隊列低5％。當前的市場與過去的積累階段非常相似，只有五到六個星期剩下五到六個星期，直到平均180天的勢頭趨向於升級。

This bullish timeline aligns with Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, who predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $120,000 by Q2 2025.

這個看漲的時間表與標準憲章的數字資產研究負責人杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）保持一致，他預測，到2025年第2季度，比特幣將達到新歷史最高的120,000美元。

Kendrick attributes this surge to strategic reallocation from US assets, noting a high US Treasury term premium, which correlates with BTC's price, and time-of-day trading patterns indicate that US investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump's trade war began on April 2.

肯德里克（Kendrick）將這一激增歸因於美國資產的戰略重新分配，指出美國財政期限很高的期限溢價與BTC的價格相關，並且交易方式表明，自4月2日唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trusts）總統的貿易戰爭開始以來，美國投資者正在尋求非美國人的資產。

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

相關：Presto Research負責人說，比特幣可能在2025年達到21萬美元

Bitcoin futures market hints at ‘long squeeze’ below $91,000

比特幣期貨市場暗示“ Long Squeeze”低於$ 91,000

Bitcoin's funding rate has turned positive, indicating a dominance of long positions as traders bet on price rises above $90,000.

比特幣的融資率變成了積極的態度，這表明長期以來一直處於統治地位，因為交易者的價格上漲了90,000美元以上。

Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin's funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions of a potential long squeeze that could push prices toward $97,000. However, the market dynamics shifted with the funding rate flipping positive, which could lead to a long squeeze.

在4月24日至4月25日之間，比特幣的融資率短暫變成負面，引發了可能的長期擠壓討論，該擠壓可能會將價格推向97,000美元。但是，市場動態隨著籌資速度呈陽性而變化，這可能會導致長期擠壓。

A Long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.

長期擠壓是一個市場事件，突然的價格下跌會導致過度槓桿交易者出售，從而通過大規模清算擴大了下降。

Bitcoin prices have dropped 1.58% after the New York market session opened on April 28, and BTC might drop as low as $90,500 over the next few days.

在紐約市場會議於4月28日開放之後，比特幣價格下跌了1.58％，在接下來的幾天內，BTC的價格可能低至90,500美元。

As illustrated in the chart, bullish momentum is beginning to fade, and BTC could re-test the fair-value gap (FVG) between $90,500 and 88,750 on the 4-hour chart.

如圖所示，看漲的勢頭開始逐漸消失，而BTC可以在4小時圖表中重新測試在90,500美元至88,750美元之間的公平價值差距（FVG）。

The price also formed a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) after the price failed to hold a position above $95,000.

價格還以相對強度指數（RSI）的價格佔據95,000美元以上的職位後，價格還形成了看跌差異。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。