比特币（BTC）价格预测：从30万美元延长至150万美元

原始文章：ARK Invest分析师David Puell；

At the beginning of the year, Ark Invest, a Bitcoin "die-hard bull" and Cathie Wood, released the Big Ideas 2025 report, which mentioned three price targets that Bitcoin is expected to achieve by 2030: $300,000 (bear market), $710,000 (benchmark market) and $1.5 million (bull market). At that time, it just "simply shouted" a price far beyond market expectations (as crazy as Plan B), and did not disclose the actual estimation process.

在今年年初，ARK Invest，一个比特币“顽固的公牛”和Cathie Wood发布了《大创意2025年报告》，该报告提到了比特币预计将在2030年实现的三个目标目标：300,000美元（熊市），710,000美元（基准市场）和150万美元（牛市）。当时，它只是“简单地喊出”的价格远远超出了市场期望（像计划B一样疯狂），并且没有透露实际的估计过程。

Two months later, Ark Invest finally announced its modeling method and logical assumptions for Bitcoin's 2030 price target. The model predicts Bitcoin's price in 2023 through Bitcoin's total potential market size (TAM) and penetration rate (popularity or share).

两个月后，方舟投资最终宣布了其建模方法和比特币2030年目标目标的逻辑假设。该模型通过比特币的总潜在市场规模（TAM）和渗透率（受欢迎程度或共享）预测了比特币的价格。

Even more encouraging (exaggerated) is the calculation based on Bitcoin's active supply indicator created by Ark Invest, where the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is: $500,000 (bear market), $1.2 million (base market) and $2.4 million (bull market). If any of the TAM or penetration rates do not meet expectations, Bitcoin may not reach these price targets. So there are also some risks and deviations in this model.

基于ARK Invest创建的比特币主动供应指标的计算更令人鼓舞（夸张），其中2030年的比特币价格为：50万美元（熊市），120万美元（基本市场）和240万美元（牛市）。如果任何TAM或渗透率不满足期望，则比特币可能无法达到这些价格目标。因此，该模型也存在一些风险和偏差。

The following are the specific details of the Bitcoin price prediction, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily.

以下是Odaily Planet Daily汇编的比特币价格预测的具体细节。

Price Targets and Assumptions

价格目标和假设

Our price target is the sum of the TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula:

我们的价格目标是根据以下公式在2030年底的TAM（总可寻址市场）捐款的总和：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: This formula predicts the price of Bitcoin in 2030 by quantifying the dynamic relationship between market demand and Bitcoin circulation. The Bitcoin price is obtained by multiplying the maximum dollar base demand size of the market segment by the penetration rate of Bitcoin in its market and dividing it by the circulating supply of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is predicted by summing the prices of all market segments (the following market segments/concepts).

Odaily Planet Daily注意：此公式通过量化市场需求与比特币循环之间的动态关系来预测2030年比特币的价格。比特币价格是通过将市场细分市场的最大美元基本需求大小乘以市场细分市场的最大基本需求规模，并将其除以比特币的循环供应，而在2030年的循环价格将其划分为所有市场细分市场的价格（以下所有市场细分市场（以下市场细分市场/概念））。

Our supply estimate is based on the circulating supply of Bitcoin, which is close to 20.5 million BTC mined by 2030. The contribution of each variable to the price target is as follows:

我们的供应估算是基于比特币的循环供应，该比特币的供应接近2050万BTC到2030年开采。每个变量对目标目标的贡献如下：

Contributors to estimated capital accumulation (mainly):

估计资本积累的贡献者（主要）：

1. Institutional investment, mainly through spot ETFs;

1。机构投资，主要是通过现货ETF；

2. Bitcoin is called "digital gold" by some people. Compared with gold, it is a more flexible and transparent means of storing value;

2.比特币被某些人称为“数字黄金”。与黄金相比，这是一种更灵活，更透明的存储价值手段。

3. Emerging market investors seek safe havens that can protect them from inflation and currency depreciation.

3.新兴市场投资者寻求可以保护他们免受通货膨胀和货币贬值的避风港。

Contributors to estimated capital accumulation (minor):

估计资本积累的贡献者（次要）：

4. National treasury reserves. Other countries follow the example of the United States and establish strategic reserves of Bitcoin;

4。国家财政储备。其他国家以美国为例，并建立比特币的战略储备。

5. Corporate treasury reserves, as more and more companies use Bitcoin to diversify their fiat cash;

5。企业财政部储备金，随着越来越多的公司使用比特币来多样化其法定现金；

6. Financial services on the Bitcoin chain, Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional finance.

6.比特币连锁店的金融服务，比特币可替代传统财务。

Excluding digital gold (which is excluded from our model as it is Bitcoin's most direct zero-sum competitor), we conservatively assume that the TAM of the above contributors (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor, Bitcoin's on-chain financial services, we assume a 6-year CAGR of between 20% and 60%, based on the cumulative value as of the end of 2024, as follows:

除了比特币最直接的零和竞争对手，我们不包括数字黄金（因为它是排除在我们的模型之外），我们保守地假设上述贡献者的TAM（特别是1、3、4和5）将在未来六年中以3％的复合年度增长率（CAGR）增长。对于第六个贡献者，比特币的链链金融服务，我们假设基于2024年底的累积价值，为6年的复合年增长率为20％至60％，如下：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: This formula calculates Bitcoin TAM six years from now by the total value of Bitcoin in 2024 and the compound annual growth rate, and divides it by the circulating supply of Bitcoin in 2030 to calculate its price.

Odaily Planet Daily注意：此公式从2024年的比特币和复合年度增长率从现在的总价值计算出比特币TAM，并将其除以2030年比特币的循环供应，以计算其价格。

Finally, we describe the contribution of TAM and penetration to the bear, baseline, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows:

最后，我们分别描述了TAM和渗透对熊，基线和牛目标目标的贡献：如下：

As shown above, “digital gold” contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, national treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin on-chain financial services contribute relatively little in each scenario. In the table below, we detail the relative contributions of our six predicted sources of capital accumulation to the bear, base case, and bull case scenarios:

如上所示，“数字黄金”对我们的熊和基本案件做出了最大的贡献，而机构投资对我们的牛案贡献了最大的贡献。有趣的是，在每种情况下，国家国库，公司国库和比特币上的金融服务的贡献相对较小。在下表中，我们详细介绍了六个预测的资本积累来源对熊，基本案件和牛案的相对贡献：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: The following charts are the expected TAM of the market segments in 2030, the Bitcoin penetration rate under three market conditions, and the contribution ratio in the above chart.

Odaily Planet每日注：以下图表是2030年市场细分市场的预期TAM，在三个市场条件下的比特币渗透率以及上图中的贡献比。

1. Potential contributors to capital accumulation: institutional investment

1。资本积累的潜在贡献者：机构投资

According to State Street, the global market portfolio is defined as follows:

根据州街的说法，全球市场组合的定义如下：

The market value of all investable capital assets divided by the

所有可投资资本资产的市场价值除以