比特幣（BTC）價格預測：從30萬美元延長至150萬美元

原始文章：ARK Invest分析師David Puell；

At the beginning of the year, Ark Invest, a Bitcoin "die-hard bull" and Cathie Wood, released the Big Ideas 2025 report, which mentioned three price targets that Bitcoin is expected to achieve by 2030: $300,000 (bear market), $710,000 (benchmark market) and $1.5 million (bull market). At that time, it just "simply shouted" a price far beyond market expectations (as crazy as Plan B), and did not disclose the actual estimation process.

在今年年初，ARK Invest，一個比特幣“頑固的公牛”和Cathie Wood發布了《大創意2025年報告》，該報告提到了比特幣預計將在2030年實現的三個目標目標：300,000美元（熊市），710,000美元（基準市場）和150萬美元（牛市）。當時，它只是“簡單地喊出”的價格遠遠超出了市場期望（像計劃B一樣瘋狂），並且沒有透露實際的估計過程。

Two months later, Ark Invest finally announced its modeling method and logical assumptions for Bitcoin's 2030 price target. The model predicts Bitcoin's price in 2023 through Bitcoin's total potential market size (TAM) and penetration rate (popularity or share).

兩個月後，方舟投資最終宣布了其建模方法和比特幣2030年目標目標的邏輯假設。該模型通過比特幣的總潛在市場規模（TAM）和滲透率（受歡迎程度或共享）預測了比特幣的價格。

Even more encouraging (exaggerated) is the calculation based on Bitcoin's active supply indicator created by Ark Invest, where the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is: $500,000 (bear market), $1.2 million (base market) and $2.4 million (bull market). If any of the TAM or penetration rates do not meet expectations, Bitcoin may not reach these price targets. So there are also some risks and deviations in this model.

基於ARK Invest創建的比特幣主動供應指標的計算更令人鼓舞（誇張），其中2030年的比特幣價格為：50萬美元（熊市），120萬美元（基本市場）和240萬美元（牛市）。如果任何TAM或滲透率不滿足期望，則比特幣可能無法達到這些價格目標。因此，該模型也存在一些風險和偏差。

The following are the specific details of the Bitcoin price prediction, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily.

以下是Odaily Planet Daily彙編的比特幣價格預測的具體細節。

Price Targets and Assumptions

價格目標和假設

Our price target is the sum of the TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula:

我們的價格目標是根據以下公式在2030年底的TAM（總可尋址市場）捐款的總和：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: This formula predicts the price of Bitcoin in 2030 by quantifying the dynamic relationship between market demand and Bitcoin circulation. The Bitcoin price is obtained by multiplying the maximum dollar base demand size of the market segment by the penetration rate of Bitcoin in its market and dividing it by the circulating supply of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is predicted by summing the prices of all market segments (the following market segments/concepts).

Odaily Planet Daily注意：此公式通過量化市場需求與比特幣循環之間的動態關係來預測2030年比特幣的價格。比特幣價格是通過將市場細分市場的最大美元基本需求大小乘以市場細分市場的最大基本需求規模，並將其除以比特幣的循環供應，而在2030年的循環價格將其劃分為所有市場細分市場的價格（以下所有市場細分市場（以下市場細分市場/概念））。

Our supply estimate is based on the circulating supply of Bitcoin, which is close to 20.5 million BTC mined by 2030. The contribution of each variable to the price target is as follows:

我們的供應估算是基於比特幣的循環供應，該比特幣的供應接近2050萬BTC到2030年開採。每個變量對目標目標的貢獻如下：

Contributors to estimated capital accumulation (mainly):

估計資本積累的貢獻者（主要）：

1. Institutional investment, mainly through spot ETFs;

1。機構投資，主要是通過現貨ETF；

2. Bitcoin is called "digital gold" by some people. Compared with gold, it is a more flexible and transparent means of storing value;

2.比特幣被某些人稱為“數字黃金”。與黃金相比，這是一種更靈活，更透明的存儲價值手段。

3. Emerging market investors seek safe havens that can protect them from inflation and currency depreciation.

3.新興市場投資者尋求可以保護他們免受通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的避風港。

Contributors to estimated capital accumulation (minor):

估計資本積累的貢獻者（次要）：

4. National treasury reserves. Other countries follow the example of the United States and establish strategic reserves of Bitcoin;

4。國家財政儲備。其他國家以美國為例，並建立比特幣的戰略儲備。

5. Corporate treasury reserves, as more and more companies use Bitcoin to diversify their fiat cash;

5。企業財政部儲備金，隨著越來越多的公司使用比特幣來多樣化其法定現金；

6. Financial services on the Bitcoin chain, Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional finance.

6.比特幣連鎖店的金融服務，比特幣可替代傳統財務。

Excluding digital gold (which is excluded from our model as it is Bitcoin's most direct zero-sum competitor), we conservatively assume that the TAM of the above contributors (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor, Bitcoin's on-chain financial services, we assume a 6-year CAGR of between 20% and 60%, based on the cumulative value as of the end of 2024, as follows:

除了比特幣最直接的零和競爭對手，我們不包括數字黃金（因為它是排除在我們的模型之外），我們保守地假設上述貢獻者的TAM（特別是1、3、4和5）將在未來六年中以3％的複合年度增長率（CAGR）增長。對於第六個貢獻者，比特幣的鍊鍊金融服務，我們假設基於2024年底的累積價值，為6年的複合年增長率為20％至60％，如下：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: This formula calculates Bitcoin TAM six years from now by the total value of Bitcoin in 2024 and the compound annual growth rate, and divides it by the circulating supply of Bitcoin in 2030 to calculate its price.

Odaily Planet Daily注意：此公式從2024年的比特幣和復合年度增長率從現在的總價值計算出比特幣TAM，並將其除以2030年比特幣的循環供應，以計算其價格。

Finally, we describe the contribution of TAM and penetration to the bear, baseline, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows:

最後，我們分別描述了TAM和滲透對熊，基線和牛目標目標的貢獻：如下：

As shown above, “digital gold” contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, national treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin on-chain financial services contribute relatively little in each scenario. In the table below, we detail the relative contributions of our six predicted sources of capital accumulation to the bear, base case, and bull case scenarios:

如上所示，“數字黃金”對我們的熊和基本案件做出了最大的貢獻，而機構投資對我們的牛案貢獻了最大的貢獻。有趣的是，在每種情況下，國家國庫，公司國庫和比特幣上的金融服務的貢獻相對較小。在下表中，我們詳細介紹了六個預測的資本積累來源對熊，基本案件和牛案的相對貢獻：

Odaily Planet Daily Note: The following charts are the expected TAM of the market segments in 2030, the Bitcoin penetration rate under three market conditions, and the contribution ratio in the above chart.

Odaily Planet每日註：以下圖表是2030年市場細分市場的預期TAM，在三個市場條件下的比特幣滲透率以及上圖中的貢獻比。

1. Potential contributors to capital accumulation: institutional investment

1。資本積累的潛在貢獻者：機構投資

According to State Street, the global market portfolio is defined as follows:

根據州街的說法，全球市場組合的定義如下：

The market value of all investable capital assets divided by the

所有可投資資本資產的市場價值除以