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比特币在本周迄今为止一直保持其向上的轨迹,资产收回并持有超过85,000美元。这种表现反映了每周的增益约为4.7%,这表明经过数周的侧向活动和看跌活动后,动量可能会发生变化。
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its upward trajectory so far this week, with the asset reclaiming and holding above the $85,000 mark. This performance reflects a weekly gain of approximately 4.7%, indicating a possible shift in momentum after weeks of sideways and bearish activity.
比特币(BTC)在本周到目前为止一直在其上升轨迹,资产回收并持有超过85,000美元。这种表现反映了每周的增益约为4.7%,这表明经过数周的侧向活动和看跌活动后,动量可能会发生变化。
While short-term gains have been recorded, signs that might determine Bitcoin’s next major move appear to have emerged. Particularly, a renewed analysis of market health and investor behavior has accompanied the current price action of BTC.
尽管已经记录了短期收益,但可能决定比特币的下一个主要举动的迹象似乎已经出现。特别是,对市场健康和投资者行为的重新分析伴随着BTC的当前价格行动。
On-chain metrics and sentiment indicators are being used to assess whether the current recovery signals a continuation of the bull cycle or if the market may be transitioning into a new phase.
链上指标和情感指标正在用于评估当前的恢复信号是否延续了牛周期,还是市场可能正在过渡到新阶段。
One such framework recently shared by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu offers a broader view of Bitcoin’s positioning using the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI).
CryptoQuant贡献者Woominkyu最近共享的一个这样的框架为使用比特币组合市场指数(BCMI)提供了更广阔的视野。
Assessing Market Health Through BCMI Metrics
通过BCMI指标评估市场健康
According to Woominkyu, the BCMI provides a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin’s market condition by aggregating four core metrics: MVRV (30%), NUPL (25%), SOPR (25%), and the Fear & Greed Index (20%).
根据Woominkyu的说法,BCMI通过汇总四个核心指标:MVRV(30%),NUPL(25%),SOPR(25%)和恐惧和贪婪索引(20%),提供了对比特币市场状况的全面概述。
Each component reflects key aspects of network valuation, investor sentiment, realized gains/losses, and emotional market trends. The index assigns weightings to each metric and calculates a combined score, which can indicate whether the market is overheated or undervalued.
每个组件都反映了网络评估,投资者情绪,实现的收益/损失以及情感市场趋势的关键方面。该指数将权重分配给每个度量标准,并计算一个合并分数,这可以指示市场是否过热还是被低估。
Historically, a BCMI score below 0.15 is associated with extreme fear and potential buying opportunities, while scores above 0.75 often precede market tops or sharp corrections.
从历史上看,BCMI得分低于0.15,与极端的恐惧和潜在的购买机会有关,而高于0.75的分数通常是在市场顶部或急剧校正之前。
At present, the BCMI remains below the 0.5 level, suggesting that Bitcoin has not yet entered the overheated zone. Woominkyu suggests two possible scenarios: the market is either undergoing a normal correction within an ongoing bull cycle, or it is showing early signs of an atypical transition into a bearish phase.
目前,BCMI保持低于0.5水平,表明比特币尚未进入过热区域。 Woominkyu提出了两种可能的情况:市场要么在持续的公牛周期内进行正常校正,要么显示出非典型过渡到看跌阶段的早期迹象。
Key Thresholds to Watch in Bitcoin
在比特币中观看的关键阈值
The analyst points to the importance of monitoring the 7-day and 90-day moving averages of the BCMI for clearer direction.
分析师指出,监测BCMI的7天和90天移动平均值的重要性。
Should the index begin to trend upward, it may signal renewed momentum and a potential return to higher price levels. Conversely, a sustained decline could confirm a broader trend reversal.
如果该指数开始向上趋势,它可能表明势头更新,并有潜在的回报到更高的价格水平。相反,持续下降可以证实更广泛的趋势逆转。
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock has shared a breakdown of key Bitcoin resistance zones identified onchain.
同时,区块链分析公司Intotheblock分享了鉴定出OnChain的关键比特币阻力区域的细分。
The market intelligence platform particularly emphasizes the $97,400 level noting that this is “where roughly 1.44 million BTC are currently holding at a loss,” hence if BTC price manages to break above that zone, it could quickly retrace back down.
市场情报平台特别强调了97,400美元的水平,指出这是“目前约有144万BTC亏损的144万美元”,因此,如果BTC价格设法超过该区域,则可以迅速向后退缩。
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