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比特幣在本週迄今為止一直保持其向上的軌跡,資產收回並持有超過85,000美元。這種表現反映了每週的增益約為4.7%,這表明經過數週的側向活動和看跌活動後,動量可能會發生變化。
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its upward trajectory so far this week, with the asset reclaiming and holding above the $85,000 mark. This performance reflects a weekly gain of approximately 4.7%, indicating a possible shift in momentum after weeks of sideways and bearish activity.
比特幣(BTC)在本周到目前為止一直在其上升軌跡,資產回收並持有超過85,000美元。這種表現反映了每週的增益約為4.7%,這表明經過數週的側向活動和看跌活動後,動量可能會發生變化。
While short-term gains have been recorded, signs that might determine Bitcoin’s next major move appear to have emerged. Particularly, a renewed analysis of market health and investor behavior has accompanied the current price action of BTC.
儘管已經記錄了短期收益,但可能決定比特幣的下一個主要舉動的跡像似乎已經出現。特別是,對市場健康和投資者行為的重新分析伴隨著BTC的當前價格行動。
On-chain metrics and sentiment indicators are being used to assess whether the current recovery signals a continuation of the bull cycle or if the market may be transitioning into a new phase.
鏈上指標和情感指標正在用於評估當前的恢復信號是否延續了牛週期,還是市場可能正在過渡到新階段。
One such framework recently shared by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu offers a broader view of Bitcoin’s positioning using the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI).
CryptoQuant貢獻者Woominkyu最近共享的一個這樣的框架為使用比特幣組合市場指數(BCMI)提供了更廣闊的視野。
Assessing Market Health Through BCMI Metrics
通過BCMI指標評估市場健康
According to Woominkyu, the BCMI provides a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin’s market condition by aggregating four core metrics: MVRV (30%), NUPL (25%), SOPR (25%), and the Fear & Greed Index (20%).
根據Woominkyu的說法,BCMI通過匯總四個核心指標:MVRV(30%),NUPL(25%),SOPR(25%)和恐懼和貪婪索引(20%),提供了對比特幣市場狀況的全面概述。
Each component reflects key aspects of network valuation, investor sentiment, realized gains/losses, and emotional market trends. The index assigns weightings to each metric and calculates a combined score, which can indicate whether the market is overheated or undervalued.
每個組件都反映了網絡評估,投資者情緒,實現的收益/損失以及情感市場趨勢的關鍵方面。該指數將權重分配給每個度量標準,併計算一個合併分數,這可以指示市場是否過熱還是被低估。
Historically, a BCMI score below 0.15 is associated with extreme fear and potential buying opportunities, while scores above 0.75 often precede market tops or sharp corrections.
從歷史上看,BCMI得分低於0.15,與極端的恐懼和潛在的購買機會有關,而高於0.75的分數通常是在市場頂部或急劇校正之前。
At present, the BCMI remains below the 0.5 level, suggesting that Bitcoin has not yet entered the overheated zone. Woominkyu suggests two possible scenarios: the market is either undergoing a normal correction within an ongoing bull cycle, or it is showing early signs of an atypical transition into a bearish phase.
目前,BCMI保持低於0.5水平,表明比特幣尚未進入過熱區域。 Woominkyu提出了兩種可能的情況:市場要么在持續的公牛週期內進行正常校正,要么顯示出非典型過渡到看跌階段的早期跡象。
Key Thresholds to Watch in Bitcoin
在比特幣中觀看的關鍵閾值
The analyst points to the importance of monitoring the 7-day and 90-day moving averages of the BCMI for clearer direction.
分析師指出,監測BCMI的7天和90天移動平均值的重要性。
Should the index begin to trend upward, it may signal renewed momentum and a potential return to higher price levels. Conversely, a sustained decline could confirm a broader trend reversal.
如果該指數開始向上趨勢,它可能表明勢頭更新,並有潛在的回報到更高的價格水平。相反,持續下降可以證實更廣泛的趨勢逆轉。
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock has shared a breakdown of key Bitcoin resistance zones identified onchain.
同時,區塊鏈分析公司Intotheblock分享了鑑定出OnChain的關鍵比特幣阻力區域的細分。
The market intelligence platform particularly emphasizes the $97,400 level noting that this is “where roughly 1.44 million BTC are currently holding at a loss,” hence if BTC price manages to break above that zone, it could quickly retrace back down.
市場情報平台特別強調了97,400美元的水平,指出這是“目前約有144萬BTC虧損的144萬美元”,因此,如果BTC價格設法超過該區域,則可以迅速向後退縮。
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