随着长期持有者（LTH）恢复积累模式，比特币（BTC）市场动态发生变化：Glassnode

Glassnode 的“Week Onchain”时事通讯的最新见解揭示了比特币市场动态的重大转变，因为长期持有者（LTH）和大型投资者似乎正在恢复积累模式。

Bitcoin market dynamics are shifting again, with a major pivot from the extensive distribution observed earlier this year, according to the latest insights from Glassnode’s “Week Onchain” newsletter.

根据 Glassnode 的“Week Onchain”时事通讯的最新见解，比特币市场动态再次发生变化，今年早些时候观察到的广泛分布发生了重大转变。

The latest newsletter highlights a return to accumulation by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and large investors, offering a potentially bullish outlook for Bitcoin despite the broader market’s ongoing volatility.

最新的时事通讯强调了长期持有者（LTH）和大型投资者重新积累比特币，尽管大盘持续波动，但仍为比特币提供了潜在的看涨前景。

Bitcoin market saw significant distribution following the all-time high (ATH) set in March 2024, with wallets of all sizes actively participating in the distribution phase. This trend is now showing signs of reversing, particularly with large wallets, which are often associated with institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), shifting towards accumulation.

比特币市场在 2024 年 3 月创下历史新高 (ATH) 后出现了显着的分配，各种规模的钱包都积极参与分配阶段。这种趋势现在显示出逆转的迹象，特别是对于大钱包来说，这些钱包通常与机构投资者和交易所交易基金（ETF）相关，转向积累。

The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), a metric that evaluates weighted balance changes across the market, has reached its maximum value of 1.0, signaling significant accumulation over the last month. This uptick in accumulation is also reflected in the activity of LTHs, who, after a period of heavy divestment, have added approximately 374,000 BTC to their holdings over the past three months.

累积趋势评分 (ATS) 是评估整个市场加权余额变化的指标，已达到最大值 1.0，表明上个月出现了显着的累积。这种积累的增加也反映在 LTH 的活动上，经过一段时间的大量撤资，他们在过去三个月中增加了约 374,000 BTC 的持仓。

LTHs, who are defined as having held their coins for at least six months to a year, play a crucial role in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Their preference for holding their coins is once again evident, with the 7-day change in LTH supply returning to positive territory, underscoring a reduced propensity for selling and an increased focus on accumulation.

LTH 被定义为持有代币至少六个月到一年，在比特币生态系统中发挥着至关重要的作用。他们对持有代币的偏好再次明显，LTH 供应量的 7 天变化恢复到正值区域，突显出抛售倾向的降低和对积累的更多关注。

Despite the aggressive distribution from April to July, Bitcoin’s spot price has managed to stay above the Active Investor Cost Basis, a critical threshold that delineates bullish and bearish investor sentiment.

尽管从 4 月到 7 月分布剧烈，但比特币现货价格仍设法保持在活跃投资者成本基础之上，这是描绘看涨和看跌投资者情绪的关键阈值。

“The market’s ability to find support near this level speaks to underlying strength,” the report notes, “suggesting that investors are generally still anticipating positive market momentum in the short to medium term.”

报告指出：“市场在这一水平附近找到支撑的能力说明了潜在的实力，这表明投资者普遍仍预计中短期内市场将出现积极势头。”

The market is not without its challenges. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric, which estimates the net balance between buying and selling pressure in spot markets, indicates a persistent net sell-side pressure. The median value of Spot CVD has fluctuated between -$22 million and -$50 million over the last two years, reflecting a consistent sell-side bias.

市场并非没有挑战。累积交易量增量 (CVD) 指标估算现货市场买卖压力之间的净平衡，表明持续的净卖方压力。过去两年，现货 CVD 的中值在 -2200 万美元到 -5000 万美元之间波动，反映出卖方的一贯偏见。

Interestingly, the adjusted variant of the CVD metric, which accounts for this bias, has shown a potential confluence with the recent failure to break above the $70,000 resistance level. This suggests that the weakness in spot demand has contributed to this technical resistance, but a recovery in demand could be signaled if the adjusted CVD returns to positive values.

有趣的是，CVD指标的调整变体（解释了这种偏差）显示出与最近未能突破70,000美元阻力位的潜在汇合。这表明现货需求疲软导致了这种技术阻力，但如果调整后的CVD恢复到正值，则可能预示着需求的复苏。

The ongoing accumulation by LTHs, despite the choppy sideways price action, indicates a resilient and patient holder base. The percentage of Bitcoin network wealth held by LTHs remains elevated compared to previous ATH breakouts, signaling that these investors are unwilling to sell at current prices and may be waiting for higher levels before increasing their distribution.

尽管价格横向波动，但 LTH 的持续积累表明持有者基础具有弹性和耐心。与之前的 ATH 突破相比，LTH 持有的比特币网络财富比例仍然较高，这表明这些投资者不愿意以当前价格出售，可能会等待更高水平后再增加分配。

The LTH Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a metric that gauges realized profit and loss relative to the market’s Realized Cap, remains lower than in previous cycles. This suggests that the profit-taking by LTHs is relatively muted, further implying that these holders are not yet inclined to liquidate their positions.

LTH 卖方风险比率是衡量已实现损益相对于市场已实现上限的指标，仍低于之前的周期。这表明 LTH 的获利回吐相对温和，进一步暗示这些持有者尚未倾向于清算其头寸。

The return to accumulation by Bitcoin holders, particularly LTHs, is a potentially bullish indicator for the market. The combination of resilient holder behavior, elevated network wealth held by long-term investors, and a strategic focus on accumulation despite recent market volatility points to a strong underlying conviction among investors. These developments could set the stage for a significant upward move by Bitcoin.

比特币持有者（尤其是 LTH）回归积累，是市场的一个潜在看涨指标。坚韧的持有者行为、长期投资者持有的网络财富不断增加，以及尽管近期市场波动，但仍注重积累的战略重点，这些因素结合在一起，表明投资者有着强烈的基本信念。这些发展可能为比特币的大幅上涨奠定基础。

At press time, BTC traded at $59,138.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 59,138 美元。