高比特币（BTC）ETF流入并不总是信号，因为历史数据是混合的

比特币从其74,400美元的多个月份低点中恢复过来后表现出了看涨的动力。在过去的七天中，BTC增长了8％。

Key points:

要点：

High Bitcoin ETF inflows don’t always signal a price top as historical data is mixed.

高比特币ETF流入并不总是信号，因为历史数据混合在一起。

Spot Bitcoin inflows often precede short-term price rises, not reversals.

现场比特币流入通常是短期价格上涨之前的，而不是逆转。

Bitcoin may hit $100K but faces resistance.

比特币可能达到$ 10万美元，但面临阻力。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recovery may be stalled at $100,000 as questions arise whether the new all-time highs also herald the local top for the asset.

比特币（BTC）的价格回收率可能会达到100,000美元，因为问题是否也是新的历史最高点也是该资产的本地顶级。

Does $1B Bitcoin ETF inflows signal a top?

$ 1B的比特币ETF流入是否标志着顶部？

Bitcoin has displayed bullish momentum after recovering from its multimonth lows of $74,400. BTC is up 8% over the last seven days, as per data from CoinTelegraph.

比特币从其74,400美元的多个月份低点中恢复过来后表现出了看涨的动力。根据CoIntelegraph的数据，在过去的七天中，BTC增长了8％。

Bitcoin’s recovery was fueled by high investor appetite for spot ETFs, which recorded $3.06 billion net weekly inflows, the largest since December 2025.

比特币的复苏是由Spot ETF的高投资者兴趣推动的，现场ETF的净资产为30.6亿美元，这是自2025年12月以来最大的净流入。

To determine whether the high spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows could signal that the price is getting close to a local top, it’s useful to examine historical data.

为了确定高点比特币ETF流入是否可以表明价格接近本地顶部，检查历史数据很有用。

While there have been instances where significant inflows coincided or preceded Bitcoin price peaks, this has not always been the case.

尽管在某些情况下，大量流入重合或先于比特币价格峰值，但并非总是如此。

The chart above shows that in March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows of over $1 billion on March 12, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone receiving $849 million.

上图显示，在2024年3月，现场比特币ETF在3月12日的创纪录量超过10亿美元，仅贝莱德的IBIT就获得了8.49亿美元。

This preceded Bitcoin’s new all-time high of around $73,300, suggesting a potential top signal. Similarly, on June 3, 2024, daily inflows hit $917 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $67,000 to $72,000, followed by a 25% correction to $53,000. These cases support the idea of major inflows preceding local tops.

这是比特币的新历史最高高点约73,300美元的，这表明潜在的最高信号。同样，2024年6月3日，每日流入达到9170亿美元，与比特币的集会从67,000美元到72,000美元保持一致，随后进行了25％的更正到53,000美元。这些案例支持本地上衣之前主要流入的想法。

However, in November 2024, weekly inflows hit $3.38 billion, as Bitcoin hit one all-time high after another, but this did not immediately lead to a price top. Instead, BTC showed resilience crossing the $100,000 market for the first time to its previous all-time highs of $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2025.

然而，在2024年11月，每周的流入量达到33.8亿美元，因为比特币又一个又一个又一个又一个又一个又一个又一个又一个又一个高的人，但这并没有立即导致价格上涨。取而代之的是，BTC表现出弹性，首次越过100,000美元的市场，直到2025年12月17日到达其先前的108,000美元高点。

Using a Vector Autoregression model, market analytics resource FalconX demonstrated the relationship between ETF net flows and Bitcoin price, and found that inflows have short-term predictive power for price increases, not necessarily reversals.

市场分析资源Falconx使用矢量自动进度模型证明了ETF净流与比特币价格之间的关系，并发现流入具有短期预测能力的价格上涨，不一定是逆转。

Related: A 'local top' and $88K retest? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

相关：“本地顶部”和8.8万美元的重新测试？本周在比特币中知道的5件事

How high can Bitcoin price go?

比特币的价格高多少？

Bitcoin’s 27% rally from the $74,400 range low saw it flip key levels into support, including the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) simple moving averages (SMA).

比特币从74,400美元的低距离SAW距离钥匙水平的支持下的27％集会，包括50天（$ 85,100），100天（$ 90,570）和200天（$ 89,300）简单移动平均（SMA）。

Bitcoin was still consolidating under the resistance at $95,000 as observed by popular analyst AlphaBTC.

如流行分析师Alphabtc所观察到的，比特币仍在抵抗下以95,000美元的价格合并。

“The pink box [at the $95,000 level] has held $BTC’s price for the last few days, as expected,” AlphaBTC said in an April 28 post on X, hoping to see BTC move past it as the week opens.

Alphabtc在4月28日在X上的一篇文章中说：“粉红色的盒子（95,000级）在过去几天中一直保持$ BTC的价格。”

CoinTelegraph previously reported that the $95,000 level marks the next significant resistance for Bitcoin and that continued ETF demand and other bullish factors would be key in overcoming it.

Cointelegraph先前报道说，95,000美元的水平标志着比特币的下一个重要阻力，而ETF需求和其他看涨因素将是克服它的关键。

AlphaBTC added:

alphabtc添加了：

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows significant seller interest within the $97,000-$100,000 range over the past three months.

来自监视资源的数据表明，在过去三个月中，卖方的卖方股票范围内的卖方股票范围很大。

This suggests that Bitcoin’s price might rise further to take the liquidity at $100,000 before staging a pullback.

这表明比特币的价格可能会进一步上涨，以使流动性在上次回调之前以100,000美元的价格提高。

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, doubted the ability of BTC/USD to sustain a trip above $95,000. While trading firm QCP Capital argued that Bitcoin lacked a “catalyst” to propel it toward $100,000 for the time being.

贸易资源材料指标的联合创始人基思·艾伦（Keith Alan）怀疑BTC/USD可以维持超过95,000美元的旅行的能力。 QCP Capital认为，比特币暂时缺乏将其推向100,000美元的“催化剂”。