高比特幣（BTC）ETF流入並不總是信號，因為歷史數據是混合的

比特幣從其74,400美元的多個月份低點中恢復過來後表現出了看漲的動力。在過去的七天中，BTC增長了8％。

Key points:

要點：

High Bitcoin ETF inflows don’t always signal a price top as historical data is mixed.

高比特幣ETF流入並不總是信號，因為歷史數據混合在一起。

Spot Bitcoin inflows often precede short-term price rises, not reversals.

現場比特幣流入通常是短期價格上漲之前的，而不是逆轉。

Bitcoin may hit $100K but faces resistance.

比特幣可能達到$ 10萬美元，但面臨阻力。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recovery may be stalled at $100,000 as questions arise whether the new all-time highs also herald the local top for the asset.

比特幣（BTC）的價格回收率可能會達到100,000美元，因為問題是否也是新的歷史最高點也是該資產的本地頂級。

Does $1B Bitcoin ETF inflows signal a top?

$ 1B的比特幣ETF流入是否標誌著頂部？

Bitcoin has displayed bullish momentum after recovering from its multimonth lows of $74,400. BTC is up 8% over the last seven days, as per data from CoinTelegraph.

比特幣從其74,400美元的多個月份低點中恢復過來後表現出了看漲的動力。根據CoIntelegraph的數據，在過去的七天中，BTC增長了8％。

Bitcoin’s recovery was fueled by high investor appetite for spot ETFs, which recorded $3.06 billion net weekly inflows, the largest since December 2025.

比特幣的複蘇是由Spot ETF的高投資者興趣推動的，現場ETF的淨資產為30.6億美元，這是自2025年12月以來最大的淨流入。

To determine whether the high spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows could signal that the price is getting close to a local top, it’s useful to examine historical data.

為了確定高點比特幣ETF流入是否可以表明價格接近本地頂部，檢查歷史數據很有用。

While there have been instances where significant inflows coincided or preceded Bitcoin price peaks, this has not always been the case.

儘管在某些情況下，大量流入重合或先於比特幣價格峰值，但並非總是如此。

The chart above shows that in March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows of over $1 billion on March 12, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone receiving $849 million.

上圖顯示，在2024年3月，現場比特幣ETF在3月12日的創紀錄量超過10億美元，僅貝萊德的IBIT就獲得了8.49億美元。

This preceded Bitcoin’s new all-time high of around $73,300, suggesting a potential top signal. Similarly, on June 3, 2024, daily inflows hit $917 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $67,000 to $72,000, followed by a 25% correction to $53,000. These cases support the idea of major inflows preceding local tops.

這是比特幣的新歷史最高高點約73,300美元的，這表明潛在的最高信號。同樣，2024年6月3日，每日流入達到9170億美元，與比特幣的集會從67,000美元到72,000美元保持一致，隨後進行了25％的更正到53,000美元。這些案例支持本地上衣之前主要流入的想法。

However, in November 2024, weekly inflows hit $3.38 billion, as Bitcoin hit one all-time high after another, but this did not immediately lead to a price top. Instead, BTC showed resilience crossing the $100,000 market for the first time to its previous all-time highs of $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2025.

然而，在2024年11月，每週的流入量達到33.8億美元，因為比特幣又一個又一個又一個又一個又一個又一個又一個又一個又一個高的人，但這並沒有立即導致價格上漲。取而代之的是，BTC表現出彈性，首次越過100,000美元的市場，直到2025年12月17日到達其先前的108,000美元高點。

Using a Vector Autoregression model, market analytics resource FalconX demonstrated the relationship between ETF net flows and Bitcoin price, and found that inflows have short-term predictive power for price increases, not necessarily reversals.

市場分析資源Falconx使用矢量自動進度模型證明了ETF淨流與比特幣價格之間的關係，並發現流入具有短期預測能力的價格上漲，不一定是逆轉。

Related: A 'local top' and $88K retest? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

相關：“本地頂部”和8.8萬美元的重新測試？本週在比特幣中知道的5件事

How high can Bitcoin price go?

比特幣的價格高多少？

Bitcoin’s 27% rally from the $74,400 range low saw it flip key levels into support, including the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) simple moving averages (SMA).

比特幣從74,400美元的低距離SAW距離鑰匙水平的支持下的27％集會，包括50天（$ 85,100），100天（$ 90,570）和200天（$ 89,300）簡單移動平均（SMA）。

Bitcoin was still consolidating under the resistance at $95,000 as observed by popular analyst AlphaBTC.

如流行分析師Alphabtc所觀察到的，比特幣仍在抵抗下以95,000美元的價格合併。

“The pink box [at the $95,000 level] has held $BTC’s price for the last few days, as expected,” AlphaBTC said in an April 28 post on X, hoping to see BTC move past it as the week opens.

Alphabtc在4月28日在X上的一篇文章中說：“粉紅色的盒子（95,000級）在過去幾天中一直保持$ BTC的價格。”

CoinTelegraph previously reported that the $95,000 level marks the next significant resistance for Bitcoin and that continued ETF demand and other bullish factors would be key in overcoming it.

Cointelegraph先前報導說，95,000美元的水平標誌著比特幣的下一個重要阻力，而ETF需求和其他看漲因素將是克服它的關鍵。

AlphaBTC added:

alphabtc添加了：

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows significant seller interest within the $97,000-$100,000 range over the past three months.

來自監視資源的數據表明，在過去三個月中，賣方的賣方股票範圍內的賣方股票範圍很大。

This suggests that Bitcoin’s price might rise further to take the liquidity at $100,000 before staging a pullback.

這表明比特幣的價格可能會進一步上漲，以使流動性在上次回調之前以100,000美元的價格提高。

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, doubted the ability of BTC/USD to sustain a trip above $95,000. While trading firm QCP Capital argued that Bitcoin lacked a “catalyst” to propel it toward $100,000 for the time being.

貿易資源材料指標的聯合創始人基思·艾倫（Keith Alan）懷疑BTC/USD可以維持超過95,000美元的旅行的能力。 QCP Capital認為，比特幣暫時缺乏將其推向100,000美元的“催化劑”。