比特币是前往熊市的吗？链上指标提供了有关当前市场动态和潜在未来趋势的见解。

Bitcoin's Bear Market Blues? On-Chain Metrics Tell a Different Tale

比特币的熊市布鲁斯？链上的指标讲述了另一个故事

Despite Bitcoin's price hovering around impressive levels, on-chain metrics are painting a complex picture, hinting at underlying shifts in market dynamics. Is a bear market looming, or are we witnessing a transformation in Bitcoin's ecosystem?

尽管比特币的价格徘徊在令人印象深刻的水平上，但链上的指标仍在绘画一幅复杂的图片，暗示了市场动态的基本变化。熊市迫在眉睫，还是我们目睹了比特币生态系统中的转变？

Quiet on the Blockchain Front

在区块链方面安静

Recent reports highlight a divergence between Bitcoin's price and its on-chain activity. Daily transactions have decreased significantly from their 2024 peak, suggesting a slowdown in network usage. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced non-monetary activity, such as Inscriptions and Runes.

最近的报道强调了比特币的价格与其链上活动之间的分歧。每日交易从2024年的峰值开始显着下降，这表明网络使用率放缓。这种下降主要归因于诸如铭文和符文等非货币活动的减少。

Institutional Players Take Center Stage

机构球员占据了中心地位

While transaction counts are down, the Bitcoin blockchain continues to process substantial transaction volumes. The average daily volume hovers around $7.5 billion, peaking at $16 billion during rallies. However, the composition of these transactions has shifted, with large institutional players and high-net-worth individuals dominating the network. Retail-size transactions now represent a smaller share of the total value transferred.

尽管交易计数降低，但比特币区块链继续处理大量交易量。每日平均量徘徊在75亿美元左右，集会期间达到160亿美元。但是，这些交易的组成发生了变化，大型机构参与者和高净值个人主导着网络。现在，零售大小的交易代表了传输总价值的较小份额。

Fee Pressure Eases Amidst Off-Chain Trading Boom

收费压力减轻了链交易繁荣

The fee environment has become subdued, even with Bitcoin trading near all-time highs. This decline is partly due to technical improvements, but it also indicates a drop in block-space demand and transaction numbers. Trading activity has largely migrated to off-chain venues, with centralized exchanges handling significantly more volume than the Bitcoin blockchain itself. Spot volumes exceed $10 billion daily, while futures markets dominate with average daily volumes around $57 billion.

即使比特币交易几乎有史以来，费用环境也变得柔和。这种下降部分是由于技术改进所致，但也表明块空间需求和交易数量下降。交易活动主要迁移到链链场所，集中式交易所处理的数量明显超过比特币区块链本身。现货量每天超过100亿美元，而期货市场的平均每日量约为570亿美元。

Demand Momentum Shifts: Bulls vs. Bears

需求势头转移：公牛与熊

Adding another layer to the story, Bitcoin's demand momentum has plunged into negative territory, signaling that short-term sellers are pulling back and long-term holders are stepping in. Trading volume has spiked, reflecting a mix of panic selling and opportunistic buying, often seen as a sign of bear capitulation. At the same time, a massive whale bet suggests confidence in Bitcoin's future, while global liquidity trends hint at a potential revisit to higher price points.

比特币的需求势头在故事中加上另一层，这表明短期卖家正在向后拉，长期持有人正在介入。交易量已经飙升，反映了恐慌销售和机会性购买的混合，通常被视为熊投票的迹象。同时，一个大规模的鲸鱼押注表明对比特币的未来有信心，而全球流动性趋势暗示了潜在的重新审视更高的价格。

The Google Connection: Tech Stocks and Crypto

Google连接：技术股票和加密货币

The correlation between tech stocks, particularly Google (GOOGL), and the crypto market adds another dimension to Bitcoin's story. Google's reliance on the U.S. economy makes its stock a key indicator of broader market sentiment. Positive movements in GOOGL stock have historically led to increased buying pressure for digital assets, and this connection remains strong.

技术股票（尤其是Google）和加密市场之间的相关性为比特币的故事增加了另一个维度。 Google对美国经济的依赖使其股票成为更广泛的市场情绪的关键指标。 GOOGL股票的积极变动历史上增加了数字资产的购买压力，这种联系仍然很强。

XRP's Cautionary Tale

XRP的警示故事

While Bitcoin's on-chain metrics present a mixed bag, XRP's situation serves as a cautionary tale. On-chain metrics for XRP have collapsed even as its price remains relatively stable. Declining new address growth and falling daily active addresses suggest user disinterest or fatigue, creating a bearish divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market price.

尽管比特币的链指标呈现出混合的袋子，但XRP的情况是一个警示性的故事。 XRP的链链指标崩溃了，即使其价格仍然相对稳定。下降的新地址增长和下降的每日活跃地址表明用户不感兴趣或疲劳，在链上基本面和市场价格之间产生了看跌的差异。

So, What Does It All Mean?

那么，这意味着什么？

The Bitcoin landscape is evolving. While on-chain metrics might not scream

比特币景观正在发展。虽然链式指标可能不会尖叫