比特幣是前往熊市的嗎？鏈上指標提供了有關當前市場動態和潛在未來趨勢的見解。

Bitcoin's Bear Market Blues? On-Chain Metrics Tell a Different Tale

比特幣的熊市布魯斯？鏈上的指標講述了另一個故事

Despite Bitcoin's price hovering around impressive levels, on-chain metrics are painting a complex picture, hinting at underlying shifts in market dynamics. Is a bear market looming, or are we witnessing a transformation in Bitcoin's ecosystem?

儘管比特幣的價格徘徊在令人印象深刻的水平上，但鏈上的指標仍在繪畫一幅複雜的圖片，暗示了市場動態的基本變化。熊市迫在眉睫，還是我們目睹了比特幣生態系統中的轉變？

Quiet on the Blockchain Front

在區塊鏈方面安靜

Recent reports highlight a divergence between Bitcoin's price and its on-chain activity. Daily transactions have decreased significantly from their 2024 peak, suggesting a slowdown in network usage. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced non-monetary activity, such as Inscriptions and Runes.

最近的報導強調了比特幣的價格與其鏈上活動之間的分歧。每日交易從2024年的峰值開始顯著下降，這表明網絡使用率放緩。這種下降主要歸因於諸如銘文和符文等非貨幣活動的減少。

Institutional Players Take Center Stage

機構球員佔據了中心地位

While transaction counts are down, the Bitcoin blockchain continues to process substantial transaction volumes. The average daily volume hovers around $7.5 billion, peaking at $16 billion during rallies. However, the composition of these transactions has shifted, with large institutional players and high-net-worth individuals dominating the network. Retail-size transactions now represent a smaller share of the total value transferred.

儘管交易計數降低，但比特幣區塊鏈繼續處理大量交易量。每日平均量徘徊在75億美元左右，集會期間達到160億美元。但是，這些交易的組成發生了變化，大型機構參與者和高淨值個人主導著網絡。現在，零售大小的交易代表了傳輸總價值的較小份額。

Fee Pressure Eases Amidst Off-Chain Trading Boom

收費壓力減輕了鏈交易繁榮

The fee environment has become subdued, even with Bitcoin trading near all-time highs. This decline is partly due to technical improvements, but it also indicates a drop in block-space demand and transaction numbers. Trading activity has largely migrated to off-chain venues, with centralized exchanges handling significantly more volume than the Bitcoin blockchain itself. Spot volumes exceed $10 billion daily, while futures markets dominate with average daily volumes around $57 billion.

即使比特幣交易幾乎有史以來，費用環境也變得柔和。這種下降部分是由於技術改進所致，但也表明塊空間需求和交易數量下降。交易活動主要遷移到鍊鍊場所，集中式交易所處理的數量明顯超過比特幣區塊鏈本身。現貨量每天超過100億美元，而期貨市場的平均每日量約為570億美元。

Demand Momentum Shifts: Bulls vs. Bears

需求勢頭轉移：公牛與熊

Adding another layer to the story, Bitcoin's demand momentum has plunged into negative territory, signaling that short-term sellers are pulling back and long-term holders are stepping in. Trading volume has spiked, reflecting a mix of panic selling and opportunistic buying, often seen as a sign of bear capitulation. At the same time, a massive whale bet suggests confidence in Bitcoin's future, while global liquidity trends hint at a potential revisit to higher price points.

比特幣的需求勢頭在故事中加上另一層，這表明短期賣家正在向後拉，長期持有人正在介入。交易量已經飆升，反映了恐慌銷售和機會性購買的混合，通常被視為熊投票的跡象。同時，一個大規模的鯨魚押注表明對比特幣的未來有信心，而全球流動性趨勢暗示了潛在的重新審視更高的價格。

The Google Connection: Tech Stocks and Crypto

Google連接：技術股票和加密貨幣

The correlation between tech stocks, particularly Google (GOOGL), and the crypto market adds another dimension to Bitcoin's story. Google's reliance on the U.S. economy makes its stock a key indicator of broader market sentiment. Positive movements in GOOGL stock have historically led to increased buying pressure for digital assets, and this connection remains strong.

技術股票（尤其是Google）和加密市場之間的相關性為比特幣的故事增加了另一個維度。 Google對美國經濟的依賴使其股票成為更廣泛的市場情緒的關鍵指標。 GOOGL股票的積極變動歷史上增加了數字資產的購買壓力，這種聯繫仍然很強。

XRP's Cautionary Tale

XRP的警示故事

While Bitcoin's on-chain metrics present a mixed bag, XRP's situation serves as a cautionary tale. On-chain metrics for XRP have collapsed even as its price remains relatively stable. Declining new address growth and falling daily active addresses suggest user disinterest or fatigue, creating a bearish divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market price.

儘管比特幣的鏈指標呈現出混合的袋子，但XRP的情況是一個警示性的故事。 XRP的鍊鍊指標崩潰了，即使其價格仍然相對穩定。下降的新地址增長和下降的每日活躍地址表明用戶不感興趣或疲勞，在鏈上基本面和市場價格之間產生了看跌的差異。

So, What Does It All Mean?

那麼，這意味著什麼？

The Bitcoin landscape is evolving. While on-chain metrics might not scream

比特幣景觀正在發展。雖然鍊式指標可能不會尖叫