比特币 vs 山寨币：SimplB 的 James Caw 探索推动 BTC 最近反弹的力量

从梅拉尼娅·特朗普传闻中的加密货币企业到唐纳德·特朗普潜在的战略储备，对话深入探讨了兴奋、回调以及正在进行的比特币与山寨币辩论。

Bronwyn Nielsen unpacks the latest developments driving Bitcoin’s recent rally with James Caw of SimplB. From Melania Trump’s rumored crypto ventures to Donald Trump’s potential strategic reserve, the conversation explores the euphoria, pullbacks, and the ongoing Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate. Is this the beginning of an exponential rise or just another cycle in the volatile world of cryptocurrency?

Bronwyn Nielsen 与 SimplB 的 James Caw 一起揭示了推动比特币近期上涨的最新进展。从梅拉尼娅·特朗普传闻中的加密货币企业到唐纳德·特朗普潜在的战略储备，对话探讨了兴奋、回调以及正在进行的比特币与山寨币辩论。这是指数级上涨的开始，还是加密货币动荡世界的又一个周期？

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Edited transcript of the interview

采访笔录经过编辑

Bronwyn Nielsen (00:08)

布朗温·尼尔森 (00:08)

James Caw, SimplB, thank you so much for your time. I’ve been looking at my very modest Bitcoin portfolio and getting incredibly excited – albeit it’s quite small. Give me a sense of whether this rally is driven by Trump-related euphoria. We’ve seen Melania entering the Bitcoin space. What’s driving the price higher? And is this the start of an exponential rally?

James Caw，SimplB，非常感谢您抽出宝贵的时间。我一直在审视我非常有限的比特币投资组合，并感到非常兴奋——尽管它很小。让我了解一下这次反弹是否是由特朗普相关的兴奋推动的。我们已经看到梅拉尼娅进入了比特币领域。是什么推动价格走高？这是指数反弹的开始吗？

James Caw (00:38)

詹姆斯·考 (00:38)

Thank you, Bronwyn. Looking at Bitcoin’s price movements is always fascinating, though understanding exactly what drives the market requires a far bigger brain than mine. What we’ve seen recently is a significant rally, particularly yesterday, largely driven by speculation about Trump announcing a Bitcoin strategic reserve and other crypto-positive developments. Some of these events haven’t materialised yet. For instance, he briefly mentioned Dogecoin, but he’s clearly discussing something entirely different now.

谢谢你，布朗温。观察比特币的价格走势总是令人着迷，尽管要准确理解市场的驱动因素需要比我更大的大脑。我们最近看到的是大幅反弹，尤其是昨天，这主要是由特朗普宣布比特币战略储备和其他加密货币积极发展的猜测推动的。其中一些事件尚未实现。例如，他简短地提到了狗狗币，但他现在显然正在讨论完全不同的东西。

There’s been a lot of excitement around the price movements, but it’s worth noting the fluctuations – from $100,000 up to $108,000, then back down to $102,000. So, the initial euphoria and subsequent pullback have already played out. Currently, at R1.9 million, it’s still a solid price point.

价格变动令人兴奋，但值得注意的是波动——从 100,000 美元涨到 108,000 美元，然后又回落到 102,000 美元。因此，最初的兴奋和随后的回调已经结束。目前，售价为 190 万兰特，仍然是一个可靠的价格点。

Bronwyn Nielsen (01:31)

布朗温·尼尔森 (01:31)

Melania transitioning from runway model to First Lady and now into the crypto world – what impact could this have? The excitement around Bitcoin, coupled with the fascination surrounding Melania Trump, might very well create its own rally.

梅拉尼娅从跑道模特转变为第一夫人，现在又进入了加密世界——这会产生什么影响？围绕比特币的兴奋，加上对梅拉尼娅·特朗普的迷恋，很可能会创造自己的反弹。

James Caw (01:51)

詹姆斯·考 (01:51)

It’s not necessarily a net negative for crypto or Bitcoin right now. In the business community, we often discuss Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as entirely distinct technologies. The broader crypto space has faced many challenges, which are quite evident with tokens like Trump Coin and Melania Coin. These kinds of projects often highlight the speculative side of cryptocurrency.

目前这并不一定对加密货币或比特币产生净负面影响。在商业界，我们经常将比特币和加密货币视为完全不同的技术。更广泛的加密货币领域面临着许多挑战，这在特朗普币和梅拉尼娅币等代币中表现得非常明显。这类项目通常凸显了加密货币的投机性。

I’m not entirely sure how involved Donald Trump and Melania are in launching these tokens – it seems their son might be managing them on their behalf. The key takeaway is that it’s now possible to create a token, sell 20% of it to the market, and achieve a billion-dollar valuation with very little substance behind it. That’s the world of cryptocurrency.

我不完全确定唐纳德·特朗普和梅拉尼娅在发行这些代币方面的参与程度如何——看来他们的儿子可能会代表他们管理这些代币。关键的一点是，现在可以创建一个代币，将其 20% 出售给市场，并在背后几乎没有任何实质内容的情况下实现 10 亿美元的估值。这就是加密货币的世界。

Bitcoin, however, is a fundamentally different, hard asset. While the mania surrounding crypto often spills over into Bitcoin’s price movements, Bitcoin itself remains largely unaffected in the long term. It continues to progress steadily, and I believe we’ll see a full recovery soon.

然而，比特币是一种根本不同的硬资产。虽然围绕加密货币的狂热经常会蔓延到比特币的价格走势，但从长远来看，比特币本身基本上不受影响。它继续稳步进展，我相信我们很快就会看到全面复苏。

Bronwyn Nielsen (03:13)

布朗温·尼尔森 (03:13)

James, let me correct myself. I should have said “crypto mogul” in reference to Melania Coin, in line with the distinction between the Bitcoin and crypto communities. Also, I sense that you might be a Bitcoin maximalist. Is that correct?

詹姆斯，让我纠正一下自己。我应该在提到 Melania Coin 时说“加密货币大亨”，这与比特币和加密货币社区之间的区别是一致的。另外，我感觉你可能是比特币最大化主义者。这是正确的吗？

James Caw (03:36)

詹姆斯·考 (03:36)

Yes, you’re right. Stafford and I have had a few discussions, and we’re very much aligned in our thinking. While some crypto tokens have utility, the majority are designed to transfer wealth from users to founders. Bitcoin, on the other hand, facilitates peer-to-peer wealth transfer without intermediaries.

是的，你说得对。斯塔福德和我进行了一些讨论，我们的想法非常一致。虽然某些加密代币具有实用性，但大多数加密代币旨在将财富从用户转移给创始人。另一方面，比特币促进了无需中介的点对点财富转移。

Bitcoin operates independently, but the crypto market as a whole goes through cycles. When the Bitcoin economy thrives, it often leads to the creation of new altcoins. These altcoins can destabilise the market, causing downturns. During these tough times, people typically shift back to Bitcoin, leading to a recovery and the start of another positive cycle. That’s the pattern we’re seeing now.

比特币独立运行，但加密货币市场作为一个整体会经历周期。当比特币经济蓬勃发展时，通常会导致新的山寨币的产生。这些山寨币可能会破坏市场稳定，导致经济低迷。在这些困难时期，人们通常会重新转向比特币，从而导致复苏并开始另一个良性循环。这就是我们现在看到的模式。

As for Trump, his influence might be beneficial for crypto, but it’s too early to determine whether he’ll have a positive impact on Bitcoin itself.

至于特朗普，他的影响力可能有利于加密货币，但现在判断他是否会对比特币本身产生积极影响还为时过早。

Bronwyn Nielsen (04:42)

布朗温·尼尔森 (04:42)

James, we regularly hear from Farzam Ehsani, the CEO of VALR, who has suggested a future price target of $890,000 for Bitcoin – although he hasn’t provided a timeframe. Do you share that perspective?

James，我们经常听到 VALR 首席执行官 Farzam Ehsani 的来信，他建议比特币未来的价格目标为 890,000 美元——尽管他没有提供时间表。你同意这个观点吗？

James Caw (05:00)

詹姆斯·考 (05:00)

Absolutely. I was recently asked on LinkedIn whether I was ready to sell Bitcoin now that it’s hit $106,000. My response was: absolutely not. At under a million dollars, it’s

绝对地。最近，LinkedIn 上有人问我，既然比特币价格已经达到 106,000 美元，我是否准备好出售它。我的回答是：绝对不是。不到一百万美元，它