比特幣 vs 山寨幣：SimplB 的 James Caw 探索推動 BTC 最近反彈的力量

從梅拉尼婭·川普傳聞中的加密貨幣企業到唐納德·川普潛在的戰略儲備，對話深入探討了興奮、回調以及正在進行的比特幣與山寨幣辯論。

Bronwyn Nielsen unpacks the latest developments driving Bitcoin’s recent rally with James Caw of SimplB. From Melania Trump’s rumored crypto ventures to Donald Trump’s potential strategic reserve, the conversation explores the euphoria, pullbacks, and the ongoing Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate. Is this the beginning of an exponential rise or just another cycle in the volatile world of cryptocurrency?

Bronwyn Nielsen 與 SimplB 的 James Caw 一起揭示了推動比特幣近期上漲的最新進展。從梅拉尼婭·川普傳聞中的加密貨幣企業到唐納德·川普潛在的戰略儲備，對話探討了興奮、回調以及正在進行的比特幣與山寨幣辯論。這是指數級上漲的開始，還是加密貨幣動盪世界的另一個週期？

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Edited transcript of the interview

訪談筆錄經過編輯

Bronwyn Nielsen (00:08)

布朗溫‧尼爾森 (00:08)

James Caw, SimplB, thank you so much for your time. I’ve been looking at my very modest Bitcoin portfolio and getting incredibly excited – albeit it’s quite small. Give me a sense of whether this rally is driven by Trump-related euphoria. We’ve seen Melania entering the Bitcoin space. What’s driving the price higher? And is this the start of an exponential rally?

James Caw，SimplB，非常感謝您抽出時間。我一直在審視我非常有限的比特幣投資組合，並感到非常興奮——儘管它很小。讓我了解一下這次反彈是否是由川普相關的興奮所推動的。我們已經看到梅蘭妮亞進入了比特幣領域。是什麼推動價格走高？這是指數反彈的開始嗎？

James Caw (00:38)

詹姆斯考 (00:38)

Thank you, Bronwyn. Looking at Bitcoin’s price movements is always fascinating, though understanding exactly what drives the market requires a far bigger brain than mine. What we’ve seen recently is a significant rally, particularly yesterday, largely driven by speculation about Trump announcing a Bitcoin strategic reserve and other crypto-positive developments. Some of these events haven’t materialised yet. For instance, he briefly mentioned Dogecoin, but he’s clearly discussing something entirely different now.

謝謝你，布朗溫。觀察比特幣的價格走勢總是令人著迷，儘管要準確理解市場的驅動因素需要比我更大的大腦。我們最近看到的是大幅反彈，尤其是昨天，這主要是由川普宣布比特幣戰略儲備和其他加密貨幣積極發展的猜測所推動的。其中一些事件尚未實現。例如，他簡短地提到了狗狗幣，但他現在顯然正在討論完全不同的東西。

There’s been a lot of excitement around the price movements, but it’s worth noting the fluctuations – from $100,000 up to $108,000, then back down to $102,000. So, the initial euphoria and subsequent pullback have already played out. Currently, at R1.9 million, it’s still a solid price point.

價格變動令人興奮，但值得注意的是波動——從 10 萬美元漲到 10.8 萬美元，然後又回落到 10.2 萬美元。因此，最初的興奮和隨後的回調已經結束。目前，售價為 190 萬蘭特，仍然是一個可靠的價格點。

Bronwyn Nielsen (01:31)

布朗溫‧尼爾森 (01:31)

Melania transitioning from runway model to First Lady and now into the crypto world – what impact could this have? The excitement around Bitcoin, coupled with the fascination surrounding Melania Trump, might very well create its own rally.

梅蘭妮亞從跑道模特兒轉變為第一夫人，現在又進入了加密世界——這會產生什麼影響？圍繞著比特幣的興奮，加上對梅蘭妮亞·川普的迷戀，很可能會創造自己的反彈。

James Caw (01:51)

詹姆斯考 (01:51)

It’s not necessarily a net negative for crypto or Bitcoin right now. In the business community, we often discuss Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as entirely distinct technologies. The broader crypto space has faced many challenges, which are quite evident with tokens like Trump Coin and Melania Coin. These kinds of projects often highlight the speculative side of cryptocurrency.

目前這並不一定對加密貨幣或比特幣產生淨負面影響。在商業界，我們經常將比特幣和加密貨幣視為完全不同的技術。更廣泛的加密貨幣領域面臨許多挑戰，這在川普幣和梅拉尼婭幣等代幣中表現得非常明顯。這類項目通常凸顯了加密貨幣的投機性。

I’m not entirely sure how involved Donald Trump and Melania are in launching these tokens – it seems their son might be managing them on their behalf. The key takeaway is that it’s now possible to create a token, sell 20% of it to the market, and achieve a billion-dollar valuation with very little substance behind it. That’s the world of cryptocurrency.

我不完全確定唐納德·川普和梅蘭妮亞在發行這些代幣方面的參與程度如何——看來他們的兒子可能會代表他們管理這些代幣。關鍵的一點是，現在可以創建一個代幣，將其 20% 出售給市場，並在背後幾乎沒有任何實質內容的情況下實現 10 億美元的估值。這就是加密貨幣的世界。

Bitcoin, however, is a fundamentally different, hard asset. While the mania surrounding crypto often spills over into Bitcoin’s price movements, Bitcoin itself remains largely unaffected in the long term. It continues to progress steadily, and I believe we’ll see a full recovery soon.

然而，比特幣是一種根本不同的硬資產。雖然圍繞加密貨幣的狂熱經常蔓延到比特幣的價格走勢，但從長遠來看，比特幣本身基本上不受影響。它繼續穩步進展，我相信我們很快就會看到全面復甦。

Bronwyn Nielsen (03:13)

布朗溫‧尼爾森 (03:13)

James, let me correct myself. I should have said “crypto mogul” in reference to Melania Coin, in line with the distinction between the Bitcoin and crypto communities. Also, I sense that you might be a Bitcoin maximalist. Is that correct?

詹姆斯，讓我糾正一下自己。我應該在提到 Melania Coin 時說“加密貨幣大亨”，這與比特幣和加密貨幣社區之間的區別是一致的。另外，我感覺你可能是比特幣最大化主義者。這是正確的嗎？

James Caw (03:36)

詹姆斯考 (03:36)

Yes, you’re right. Stafford and I have had a few discussions, and we’re very much aligned in our thinking. While some crypto tokens have utility, the majority are designed to transfer wealth from users to founders. Bitcoin, on the other hand, facilitates peer-to-peer wealth transfer without intermediaries.

是的，你說得對。史塔福德和我進行了一些討論，我們的想法非常一致。雖然某些加密代幣具有實用性，但大多數加密代幣旨在將財富從用戶轉移給創始人。另一方面，比特幣促成了無需中介的點對點財富轉移。

Bitcoin operates independently, but the crypto market as a whole goes through cycles. When the Bitcoin economy thrives, it often leads to the creation of new altcoins. These altcoins can destabilise the market, causing downturns. During these tough times, people typically shift back to Bitcoin, leading to a recovery and the start of another positive cycle. That’s the pattern we’re seeing now.

比特幣獨立運行，但整個加密貨幣市場會經歷週期。當比特幣經濟蓬勃發展時，通常會導致新的山寨幣的產生。這些山寨幣可能會破壞市場穩定，導致經濟低迷。在這些困難時期，人們通常會重新轉向比特幣，導致復甦並開始另一個良性循環。這就是我們現在看到的模式。

As for Trump, his influence might be beneficial for crypto, but it’s too early to determine whether he’ll have a positive impact on Bitcoin itself.

至於川普，他的影響力可能有利於加密貨幣，但現在判斷他是否會對比特幣本身產生正面影響還為時過早。

Bronwyn Nielsen (04:42)

布朗溫‧尼爾森 (04:42)

James, we regularly hear from Farzam Ehsani, the CEO of VALR, who has suggested a future price target of $890,000 for Bitcoin – although he hasn’t provided a timeframe. Do you share that perspective?

James，我們經常聽到 VALR 執行長 Farzam Ehsani 的來信，他建議比特幣未來的目標價為 89 萬美元——儘管他沒有提供時間表。你同意這個觀點嗎？

James Caw (05:00)

詹姆斯考 (05:00)

Absolutely. I was recently asked on LinkedIn whether I was ready to sell Bitcoin now that it’s hit $106,000. My response was: absolutely not. At under a million dollars, it’s

絕對地。最近，LinkedIn 上有人問我，既然比特幣價格已經達到 106,000 美元，我是否準備好出售它。我的回答是：絕對不是。不到一百萬美元，它