本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）预测，山寨币将继续表现不足的比特币

他警告说，关键的山寨币与比蒂币市值的比率可能从目前的0.34水平下降到0.25

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen expects altcoins to continue underperforming against Bitcoin, with the key altcoin-to-bitcoin market cap ratio set to fall further from its current 0.34 level toward 0.25.

加密分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）预计，山寨币将继续对比特币的表现不佳，而关键的Altcoin与比甲币市值将从目前的0.34水平降至0.25。

Tracking the total altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum) versus bitcoin’s, the ratio has been steadily declining over the past year and currently sits at around 0.34, according to Cowen. He noted that the next support level appears to be at 0.32, with a longer-term target of 0.25 in mind.

根据Cowen的数据，该比率在过去一年中一直在稳步下降，目前的比率一直在0.34左右，因此跟踪总甲币市值（不包括以太坊）。他指出，下一个支持水平似乎为0.32，考虑到0.25的长期目标。

The chart also shows a descending triangle pattern, which bodes well for further downward momentum in the upcoming period.

该图还显示了一个下降的三角形模式，在即将到来的时期内，该图案良好，可以进一步向下势头。

"With QT continuing, it seems likely that the altcoin pairs against bitcoin will keep dropping. The chart shows the total altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) versus bitcoin's market cap. It's still holding up okay, with the next support at 0.32 and a longer-term target of 0.25," said the analyst.

“随着QT持续的持续，与比特币的Altcoin配对似乎会不断下降。图表显示了总替代币市值（不包括ETH）与比特币的市值。它仍然可以保持不错，下一个支持为0.32，长期目标为0.25，”分析师说。

Quantitative tightening (QT) seen favoring bitcoin over altcoins

定量收紧（QT）偏爱比特币而不是altcoins

The analyst explained that the trend could be linked to global quantitative tightening (QT), particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as it pulls liquidity out of the markets.

该分析师解释说，这一趋势可能与全球定量收紧（QT）有关，尤其是美国美联储将流动性从市场中撤出时。

Cowen has previously stated that market liquidity is a major driver of crypto performance. When liquidity shrinks, investors tend to move away from riskier assets like small-cap altcoins and prefer bitcoin, which is viewed as more stable and less volatile.

Cowen此前曾表示，市场流动性是加密性能的主要驱动力。当流动性缩小时，投资者倾向于摆脱诸如小型售出山币等风险较高的资产，而偏爱比特币，这被视为更稳定且波动性较小。

This preference for bitcoin is also evident in its dominance, which is approaching the 66% level, signaling further weakness in the broader market.

对比特币的这种偏爱在其优势上也很明显，即接近66％的水平，这表明了更广泛的市场的进一步弱点。

At the time of writing, bitcoin dominance stands at 65.14%, having dropped slightly by 0.3% over the past day. However, over the past month, it has risen by 2.55%, adding to its year-to-date gains of 12.1%.

在撰写本文时，比特币优势为65.14％，在过去的一天中略有0.3％。但是，在过去的一个月中，它上升了2.55％，增加了12.1％。

Historically, such rapid increases in bitcoin dominance have occurred during bear markets or macroeconomic tightening periods. In previous cycles, bitcoin dominance usually rose sharply before altcoins finally found a bottom, setting the stage for a rebound.

从历史上看，在熊市或宏观经济收紧时期，比特币优势的迅速增加。在以前的周期中，比特币的优势通常在Altcoins最终找到底部之前急剧上升，为反弹奠定了基础。

However, despite Cowen’s bearish outlook, other analysts remain optimistic about the performance of altcoins during this cycle.

然而，尽管Cowen的看跌前景，但其他分析师对此周期中Altcoins的性能仍然乐观。

Notably, bitcoin broke the $99K level today following a 3% surge. Altcoins are gradually capitalizing on bitcoin momentum.

值得注意的是，比特币在涨幅3％之后打破了今天的9.9万美元。 AltCoins逐渐利用比特币动量。