本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）預測，山寨幣將繼續表現不足的比特幣

他警告說，關鍵的山寨幣與比蒂幣市值的比率可能從目前的0.34水平下降到0.25

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen expects altcoins to continue underperforming against Bitcoin, with the key altcoin-to-bitcoin market cap ratio set to fall further from its current 0.34 level toward 0.25.

加密分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）預計，山寨幣將繼續對比特幣的表現不佳，而關鍵的Altcoin與比甲幣市值將從目前的0.34水平降至0.25。

Tracking the total altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum) versus bitcoin’s, the ratio has been steadily declining over the past year and currently sits at around 0.34, according to Cowen. He noted that the next support level appears to be at 0.32, with a longer-term target of 0.25 in mind.

根據Cowen的數據，該比率在過去一年中一直在穩步下降，目前的比率一直在0.34左右，因此跟踪總甲幣市值（不包括以太坊）。他指出，下一個支持水平似乎為0.32，考慮到0.25的長期目標。

The chart also shows a descending triangle pattern, which bodes well for further downward momentum in the upcoming period.

該圖還顯示了一個下降的三角形模式，在即將到來的時期內，該圖案良好，可以進一步向下勢頭。

"With QT continuing, it seems likely that the altcoin pairs against bitcoin will keep dropping. The chart shows the total altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) versus bitcoin's market cap. It's still holding up okay, with the next support at 0.32 and a longer-term target of 0.25," said the analyst.

“隨著QT持續的持續，與比特幣的Altcoin配對似乎會不斷下降。圖表顯示了總替代幣市值（不包括ETH）與比特幣的市值。它仍然可以保持不錯，下一個支持為0.32，長期目標為0.25，”分析師說。

Quantitative tightening (QT) seen favoring bitcoin over altcoins

定量收緊（QT）偏愛比特幣而不是altcoins

The analyst explained that the trend could be linked to global quantitative tightening (QT), particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as it pulls liquidity out of the markets.

該分析師解釋說，這一趨勢可能與全球定量收緊（QT）有關，尤其是美國美聯儲將流動性從市場中撤出時。

Cowen has previously stated that market liquidity is a major driver of crypto performance. When liquidity shrinks, investors tend to move away from riskier assets like small-cap altcoins and prefer bitcoin, which is viewed as more stable and less volatile.

Cowen此前曾表示，市場流動性是加密性能的主要驅動力。當流動性縮小時，投資者傾向於擺脫諸如小型售出山幣等風險較高的資產，而偏愛比特幣，這被視為更穩定且波動性較小。

This preference for bitcoin is also evident in its dominance, which is approaching the 66% level, signaling further weakness in the broader market.

對比特幣的這種偏愛在其優勢上也很明顯，即接近66％的水平，這表明了更廣泛的市場的進一步弱點。

At the time of writing, bitcoin dominance stands at 65.14%, having dropped slightly by 0.3% over the past day. However, over the past month, it has risen by 2.55%, adding to its year-to-date gains of 12.1%.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣優勢為65.14％，在過去的一天中略有0.3％。但是，在過去的一個月中，它上升了2.55％，增加了12.1％。

Historically, such rapid increases in bitcoin dominance have occurred during bear markets or macroeconomic tightening periods. In previous cycles, bitcoin dominance usually rose sharply before altcoins finally found a bottom, setting the stage for a rebound.

從歷史上看，在熊市或宏觀經濟收緊時期，比特幣優勢的迅速增加。在以前的周期中，比特幣的優勢通常在Altcoins最終找到底部之前急劇上升，為反彈奠定了基礎。

However, despite Cowen’s bearish outlook, other analysts remain optimistic about the performance of altcoins during this cycle.

然而，儘管Cowen的看跌前景，但其他分析師對此週期中Altcoins的性能仍然樂觀。

Notably, bitcoin broke the $99K level today following a 3% surge. Altcoins are gradually capitalizing on bitcoin momentum.

值得注意的是，比特幣在激增3％後打破了今天的9.9萬美元。 AltCoins逐漸利用比特幣動量。