到2030

到2030年底，十亿美元的资产经理Ark Invest已将其“ Bull Case”比特币价格目标从150万美元提高到240万美元

Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest has upped the price target for its “bull case” Bitcoin prediction from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030.

十亿美元的资产经理Ark Invest已将其“ Bull Case”比特币预测的价格目标从2030年底到240万美元。

The new prediction, which was part of an April 24 report from ARK research analyst David Puell, was largely driven by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as “digital gold.”

这项新预测是ARK研究分析师David Puell的4月24日报告的一部分，这在很大程度上是由机构投资者和比特币作为“数字黄金”的越来越多的接受。

“[Institutional investment] contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure excludes gold).

普尔说：“ [机构投资]对我们的公牛案做出了最大的贡献，他估计比特币在最佳情况下将达到200万亿美元金融市场的渗透率6.5％（这一数字不包括黄金）。

The new predictions saw adjustments to ARK’s “bear,” “base” and “bull” case scenarios for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

新的预测使ARK的“熊”，“基础”和“ Bull”案例对比特币（BTC）进行了调整。

After previously setting its bear and base case predictions at $300,000 and $710,000 on Feb. 11, ARK has now bumped up those figures to $500,000 and $1.2 million.

在以前将其熊和基本案例预测定为30万美元和2月11日的710,000美元之后，方舟现在将这些数字提高到50万美元和120万美元。

ARK’s price projections were modeled on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), penetration rate — the percentage of Bitcoin’s TAM that it could capture in certain cases — and Bitcoin’s supply schedule.

ARK的价格预测是根据比特币的总可寻址市场（TAM），渗透率 - 在某些情况下可以捕获的比特币TAM的百分比以及比特币的供应时间表。

Bitcoin’s acceptance as “digital gold” was also a major contributor to the lofty estimate, with Puell estimating that it could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario.

比特币作为“数字黄金”的接受也是崇高估计的主要贡献者，Puell估计，到2030年底，在公牛的情况下，它可以捕获高达18万亿美元的市值（2024数字）的60％。

Bitcoin becoming a “safe haven” in emerging markets was the third-largest contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case prediction at 13.5%.

比特币成为新兴市场中的“避风港”，是方舟240万美元牛案预测的第三大贡献者，占13.5％。

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” said Puell, noting how Bitcoin could help to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries.

普尔说：“这种比特币用例具有最大的资本应计潜力。”他指出，比特币如何帮助保护财富免受发展中国家的通货膨胀和贬值。

At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar price is 7.66 yuan, while the price differential between the two is around 13%.

在写作时，美元价格为7.66元，而两者之间的价格差异约为13％。

The fourth-largest contributor was nation-state and corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, which were closely related to the cryptocurrency’s legal status in various countries.

第四大贡献者是民族国家和公司比特币国库，这些策略与加密货币在各个国家的法律地位密切相关。

Finally, Bitcoin financial services — such as derivatives, exchange-traded funds and other products — were the fifth-largest contributor to ARK’s bull case.

最后，比特币金融服务（例如衍生品，交易所贸易资金和其他产品）是方舟公牛案的第五大贡献者。

After adjusting for inflation, the value of the U.S. financial market has remained relatively stable for at least 75 years, said Puell, adding that throughout that time period, the largest asset class has shifted from equities to bonds and then to private equity.

Puell说，在调整通货膨胀之后，美国金融市场的价值至少保持了75年的稳定，并补充说，在这段时间内，最大的资产类别从股票转移到债券，然后转移到私募股权。

However, Puell believes that the next asset class to rise to prominence will be cryptocurrency, which he says could contribute to a 6.5% penetration rate of the financial market by 2030.

但是，Puell认为，下一个要出名的资产类别将是加密货币，他说，到2030年，这可能会导致金融市场的6.5％的渗透率。

“We think that over the next seven years, cryptocurrencies could take about a third of equities, a third of bonds and a third of private equity to reach a 6.5% penetration of the financial market,” he said.

他说：“我们认为，在接下来的七年中，加密货币可能需要股票的三分之一，债券的三分之一和三分之一的私募股权，以达到金融市场的6.5％的渗透率。”

Earlier this year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that she believed that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2025.

今年早些时候，方舟投资首席执行官凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）表示，她认为比特币到2025年可以达到100万美元。

At the time, several members of the crypto community expressed skepticism over that prediction, given that Bitcoin would need to rise at a rate of 300% from its 2024 opening price.

当时，加密货币社区的几个成员对这一预测表示怀疑，因为比特币需要从2024年的开放价格上以300％的速度上升。

However, ARK’s new prediction of $2.4 million by 2030 is a bit more palatable, as it would see Bitcoin increase at a compound annual growth rate of 23%.

但是，到2030年，方舟对240万美元的新预测更加可口，因为它将比特币以23％的复合年增长率增长。

A $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would send Bitcoin’s market cap to $49.2 trillion, assuming that Bitcoin’s total supply will have reached 20.5 million by the end of 2030.

假设比特币的总供应量将在2030年底之前已达到2050万美元，则240万美元的比特币价格将使比特币的市值达到49.2万亿美元。

A $49.2 trillion valuation would be almost larger than the current gross domestic products of the U.S. and China combined.

49.2万亿美元的估值几乎要比美国和中国目前的国内总产品总合计大。

It would also put Bitcoin in a good position to overtake gold as the world’s largest asset, which currently boasts a market cap of $22.5 trillion.

这也将使比特币处于良好的位置，可以超过黄金作为世界上最大的资产，目前的市值为22.5万亿美元。

Even ARK’s bear and base targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would mean Bitcoin needs to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 32% and 53% by the end of 2030 — a return that isn’t achieved too often for assets that have already notched trillion-dollar valuations.

即使方舟的熊和基本目标为50万美元，而120万美元也意味着比特币需要以32％的复合年增长率和53％的复合币增加，到2030年底，这一回报频率不经常获得，而这些资产对于已经估计的数万亿美元的资产而言。

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered from a 2025 low of $75,160, soaring back up to the $94,000 range, while the Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

从那以后，比特币从2025年的75,160美元低点恢复，飙升至94,000美元范围，而特朗普政府则建立了战略性的比特币储备。