ARK Invest Raises Its Bitcoin (BTC) Price Target to $2.4 Million by 2030

Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest has raised its “bull case” Bitcoin price target from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030

Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest has upped the price target for its “bull case” Bitcoin prediction from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030.

The new prediction, which was part of an April 24 report from ARK research analyst David Puell, was largely driven by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as “digital gold.”

“[Institutional investment] contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure excludes gold).

The new predictions saw adjustments to ARK’s “bear,” “base” and “bull” case scenarios for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

After previously setting its bear and base case predictions at $300,000 and $710,000 on Feb. 11, ARK has now bumped up those figures to $500,000 and $1.2 million.

ARK’s price projections were modeled on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), penetration rate — the percentage of Bitcoin’s TAM that it could capture in certain cases — and Bitcoin’s supply schedule.

Bitcoin’s acceptance as “digital gold” was also a major contributor to the lofty estimate, with Puell estimating that it could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario.

Bitcoin becoming a “safe haven” in emerging markets was the third-largest contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case prediction at 13.5%.

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” said Puell, noting how Bitcoin could help to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries.

At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar price is 7.66 yuan, while the price differential between the two is around 13%.

The fourth-largest contributor was nation-state and corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, which were closely related to the cryptocurrency’s legal status in various countries.

Finally, Bitcoin financial services — such as derivatives, exchange-traded funds and other products — were the fifth-largest contributor to ARK’s bull case.

After adjusting for inflation, the value of the U.S. financial market has remained relatively stable for at least 75 years, said Puell, adding that throughout that time period, the largest asset class has shifted from equities to bonds and then to private equity.

However, Puell believes that the next asset class to rise to prominence will be cryptocurrency, which he says could contribute to a 6.5% penetration rate of the financial market by 2030.

“We think that over the next seven years, cryptocurrencies could take about a third of equities, a third of bonds and a third of private equity to reach a 6.5% penetration of the financial market,” he said.

Earlier this year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that she believed that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2025.

At the time, several members of the crypto community expressed skepticism over that prediction, given that Bitcoin would need to rise at a rate of 300% from its 2024 opening price.

However, ARK’s new prediction of $2.4 million by 2030 is a bit more palatable, as it would see Bitcoin increase at a compound annual growth rate of 23%.

A $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would send Bitcoin’s market cap to $49.2 trillion, assuming that Bitcoin’s total supply will have reached 20.5 million by the end of 2030.

A $49.2 trillion valuation would be almost larger than the current gross domestic products of the U.S. and China combined.

It would also put Bitcoin in a good position to overtake gold as the world’s largest asset, which currently boasts a market cap of $22.5 trillion.

Even ARK’s bear and base targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would mean Bitcoin needs to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 32% and 53% by the end of 2030 — a return that isn’t achieved too often for assets that have already notched trillion-dollar valuations.

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered from a 2025 low of $75,160, soaring back up to the $94,000 range, while the Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.