到2030

到2030年底，十億美元的資產經理Ark Invest已將其“ Bull Case”比特幣價格目標從150萬美元提高到240萬美元

Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest has upped the price target for its “bull case” Bitcoin prediction from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030.

十億美元的資產經理Ark Invest已將其“ Bull Case”比特幣預測的價格目標從2030年底到240萬美元。

The new prediction, which was part of an April 24 report from ARK research analyst David Puell, was largely driven by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as “digital gold.”

這項新預測是ARK研究分析師David Puell的4月24日報告的一部分，這在很大程度上是由機構投資者和比特幣作為“數字黃金”的越來越多的接受。

“[Institutional investment] contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure excludes gold).

普爾說：“ [機構投資]對我們的公牛案做出了最大的貢獻，他估計比特幣在最佳情況下將達到200萬億美元金融市場的滲透率6.5％（這一數字不包括黃金）。

The new predictions saw adjustments to ARK’s “bear,” “base” and “bull” case scenarios for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

新的預測使ARK的“熊”，“基礎”和“ Bull”案例對比特幣（BTC）進行了調整。

After previously setting its bear and base case predictions at $300,000 and $710,000 on Feb. 11, ARK has now bumped up those figures to $500,000 and $1.2 million.

在以前將其熊和基本案例預測定為30萬美元和2月11日的710,000美元之後，方舟現在將這些數字提高到50萬美元和120萬美元。

ARK’s price projections were modeled on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), penetration rate — the percentage of Bitcoin’s TAM that it could capture in certain cases — and Bitcoin’s supply schedule.

ARK的價格預測是根據比特幣的總可尋址市場（TAM），滲透率 - 在某些情況下可以捕獲的比特幣TAM的百分比以及比特幣的供應時間表。

Bitcoin’s acceptance as “digital gold” was also a major contributor to the lofty estimate, with Puell estimating that it could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario.

比特幣作為“數字黃金”的接受也是崇高估計的主要貢獻者，Puell估計，到2030年底，在公牛的情況下，它可以捕獲高達18萬億美元的市值（2024數字）的60％。

Bitcoin becoming a “safe haven” in emerging markets was the third-largest contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case prediction at 13.5%.

比特幣成為新興市場中的“避風港”，是方舟240萬美元牛案預測的第三大貢獻者，佔13.5％。

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” said Puell, noting how Bitcoin could help to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries.

普爾說：“這種比特幣用例具有最大的資本應計潛力。”他指出，比特幣如何幫助保護財富免受發展中國家的通貨膨脹和貶值。

At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar price is 7.66 yuan, while the price differential between the two is around 13%.

在寫作時，美元價格為7.66元，而兩者之間的價格差異約為13％。

The fourth-largest contributor was nation-state and corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, which were closely related to the cryptocurrency’s legal status in various countries.

第四大貢獻者是民族國家和公司比特幣國庫，這些策略與加密貨幣在各個國家的法律地位密切相關。

Finally, Bitcoin financial services — such as derivatives, exchange-traded funds and other products — were the fifth-largest contributor to ARK’s bull case.

最後，比特幣金融服務（例如衍生品，交易所貿易資金和其他產品）是方舟公牛案的第五大貢獻者。

After adjusting for inflation, the value of the U.S. financial market has remained relatively stable for at least 75 years, said Puell, adding that throughout that time period, the largest asset class has shifted from equities to bonds and then to private equity.

Puell說，在調整通貨膨脹之後，美國金融市場的價值至少保持了75年的穩定，並補充說，在這段時間內，最大的資產類別從股票轉移到債券，然後轉移到私募股權。

However, Puell believes that the next asset class to rise to prominence will be cryptocurrency, which he says could contribute to a 6.5% penetration rate of the financial market by 2030.

但是，Puell認為，下一個要出名的資產類別將是加密貨幣，他說，到2030年，這可能會導致金融市場的6.5％的滲透率。

“We think that over the next seven years, cryptocurrencies could take about a third of equities, a third of bonds and a third of private equity to reach a 6.5% penetration of the financial market,” he said.

他說：“我們認為，在接下來的七年中，加密貨幣可能需要股票的三分之一，債券的三分之一和三分之一的私募股權，以達到金融市場的6.5％的滲透率。”

Earlier this year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that she believed that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2025.

今年早些時候，方舟投資首席執行官凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）表示，她認為比特幣到2025年可以達到100萬美元。

At the time, several members of the crypto community expressed skepticism over that prediction, given that Bitcoin would need to rise at a rate of 300% from its 2024 opening price.

當時，加密貨幣社區的幾個成員對這一預測表示懷疑，因為比特幣需要從2024年的開放價格上以300％的速度上升。

However, ARK’s new prediction of $2.4 million by 2030 is a bit more palatable, as it would see Bitcoin increase at a compound annual growth rate of 23%.

但是，到2030年，方舟對240萬美元的新預測更加可口，因為它將比特幣以23％的複合年增長率增長。

A $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would send Bitcoin’s market cap to $49.2 trillion, assuming that Bitcoin’s total supply will have reached 20.5 million by the end of 2030.

假設比特幣的總供應量將在2030年底之前已達到2050萬美元，則240萬美元的比特幣價格將使比特幣的市值達到49.2萬億美元。

A $49.2 trillion valuation would be almost larger than the current gross domestic products of the U.S. and China combined.

49.2萬億美元的估值幾乎要比美國和中國目前的國內總產品總合計大。

It would also put Bitcoin in a good position to overtake gold as the world’s largest asset, which currently boasts a market cap of $22.5 trillion.

這也將使比特幣處於良好的位置，可以超過黃金作為世界上最大的資產，目前的市值為22.5萬億美元。

Even ARK’s bear and base targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would mean Bitcoin needs to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 32% and 53% by the end of 2030 — a return that isn’t achieved too often for assets that have already notched trillion-dollar valuations.

即使方舟的熊和基本目標為50萬美元，而120萬美元也意味著比特幣需要以32％的複合年增長率和53％的複合幣增加，到2030年底，這一回報頻率不經常獲得，而這些資產對於已經估計的數万億美元的資產而言。

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered from a 2025 low of $75,160, soaring back up to the $94,000 range, while the Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

從那以後，比特幣從2025年的75,160美元低點恢復，飆升至94,000美元範圍，而特朗普政府則建立了戰略性的比特幣儲備。