Solana Memecoin 剖析：pump.fun

2024 年，Solana 区块链在 memecoin 市场经历了快速扩张，其中 Pump.fun 处于领先地位。

2024 was a year of rapid expansion for the Solana blockchain, particularly in the memecoin market, where pump.fun emerged as the leading platform. The platform quickly captured a large audience seeking fast profits, prompting Crypto.news to conduct an in-depth analysis of the profitability of investing in pump.fun tokens.

2024 年是 Solana 区块链快速扩张的一年，特别是在 memecoin 市场，pump.fun 成为该市场的领先平台。该平台迅速吸引了大批寻求快速盈利的受众，促使 Crypto.news 对投资 Pump.fun 代币的盈利能力进行了深入分析。

While a few early adopters did manage to secure profits, the vast majority of investors ultimately lost money. Here's a closer look at the findings and their implications for investors.

虽然一些早期采用者确实获得了利润，但绝大多数投资者最终都亏损了。以下是对调查结果及其对投资者的影响的更仔细的研究。

Pump.fun was the clear forerunner in Solana's memecoin ecosystem, holding 50% of the market share. The platform achieved this by streamlining token launches, making them both quick and easy. It also focused on ensuring a fair process for creating and trading tokens, avoiding problems like presales or team allocations.

Pump.fun 是 Solana memecoin 生态系统的明显先行者，占据 50% 的市场份额。该平台通过简化代币发行流程来实现这一目标，使其既快速又简单。它还致力于确保创建和交易代币的公平过程，避免预售或团队分配等问题。

To gather data for this article, we used various queries and scripts inspired by Dune analysts @adam_tehc, @hashed_official, and @evelyn233 and developed our own versions.

为了收集本文的数据，我们使用了受 Dune 分析师 @adam_tehc、@hashed_official 和 @evelyn233 启发的各种查询和脚本，并开发了我们自己的版本。

Due to the ease of use and the rise in popularity, around 300,000 tokens were created on Solana each month since March 2024. However, not all of these tokens even reach a market cap of $69,000. Over six months, 33,683 tokens made it to Raydium, while a total of 1,883,578 tokens were deployed on pump.fun. This results in a graduation success rate of only 1.79%.

由于易用性和受欢迎程度的上升，自 2024 年 3 月以来，Solana 每月创建约 300,000 个代币。然而，并非所有这些代币的市值都达到 69,000 美元。六个月内，Raydium 上有 33,683 个代币，而 Pump.fun 上部署的代币总数为 1,883,578 个。这导致毕业成功率仅为1.79%。

Pump.fun further provides a token burning mechanism. Around 100 pump.fun tokens were burned each month, while an average of 13,308 new pump.fun tokens were minted monthly. This puts the net burn rate at around 99.8%.

Pump.fun还提供了代币销毁机制。每月大约有 100 个 Pump.fun 代币被销毁，而平均每月铸造 13,308 个新的 Pump.fun 代币。这使得净燃烧率约为 99.8%。

The statistics for investors on the pump.fun platform paints an even grimmer picture. Out of 29,601,462 total wallets involved, a majority experienced negative outcomes:

Pump.fun 平台上投资者的统计数据描绘了一幅更加严峻的景象。在涉及的 29,601,462 个钱包中，大多数都经历了负面结果：

Around 14,987,034 wallets (50.6%) lost less than $100.

大约 14,987,034 个钱包 (50.6%) 的损失不到 100 美元。

Another 8,038,836 wallets (27.1%) lost between $100 and $1,000.

另外 8,038,836 个钱包 (27.1%) 损失在 100 美元到 1,000 美元之间。

Only 1,000,704 wallets (3.4%) managed to lose more than $10,000.

只有 1,000,704 个钱包（3.4%）的损失超过 10,000 美元。

On the other hand, only 5,574,898 wallets (18.8%) experienced profits, and a vast majority of these earned less than $100.

另一方面，只有 5,574,898 个钱包（18.8%）实现了盈利，其中绝大多数的收入不到 100 美元。

The distribution of profits further shows the low probability of winning through memecoin investments. To provide a clearer picture of the probabilities associated with different profit levels on pump.fun, here are some realistic comparisons:

利润分配进一步表明，通过 memecoin 投资获胜的概率很低。为了更清楚地了解 Pump.fun 上不同利润水平相关的概率，以下是一些实际比较：

The probability of losing less than $100 is comparable to rolling a six-sided die and getting a one or a two.

损失少于 100 美元的概率相当于掷出六面骰子并得到 1 或 2 的概率。

The probability of making a profit is roughly equivalent to rolling the die and getting a five or a six.

盈利的概率大致相当于掷骰子得到五或六。

The probability of losing more than $100,000 is similar to rolling the die and getting a specific number, like a three.

损失超过 100,000 美元的概率类似于掷骰子并得到特定数字（例如 3）。

Many individuals are searching for a quick way to transform their financial situations, and stories of random people making huge profits overnight certainly add fuel to the fire. But the harsh reality is that most will lose, often catastrophically.

许多人都在寻找一种快速改变财务状况的方法，而随机的人一夜之间赚取巨额利润的故事无疑会火上浇油。但残酷的现实是，大多数人都会失败，而且往往是灾难性的。

Instead of gambling on unproven tokens, investors should focus on assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL — assets with a proven track record. These won’t turn $100 into a million tomorrow, but they will grow an individual’s wealth steadily and sustainably. At the end of the day, investing is for making money and not losing. The sooner one abandons the dream of instant riches and embraces this truth, the sooner they’ll start making decisions that truly increase their net worth. Anything else is a reckless path to financial ruin.

投资者不应把赌注押在未经证实的代币上，而应关注 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 等资产，即具有良好记录的资产。这些不会将 100 美元变成明天的 100 万美元，但它们会稳定、可持续地增加个人的财富。归根结底，投资是为了赚钱，而不是为了亏损。一个人越早放弃一夜暴富的梦想并接受这一真理，他们就越早开始做出真正增加净资产的决定。其他任何事情都是不计后果的导致财务破产的道路。

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only

声明：本文不代表投资建议。此页面上的内容和材料仅用于教育目的