新分析揭示了安全和危险的杠杆加密货币交易之间的界限

Outcome Labs 是去中心化衍生品市场的先锋力量，很自豪地公布其对加密衍生品清算危机的最新突破性分析。

Outcome Labs, the driving force behind the decentralized derivatives marketplace, has unveiled its latest analysis on the crypto derivatives liquidation crisis, titled “Do Not Get REKT.” This study fills a significant gap in existing research by examining the probability of getting liquidated in leveraged crypto trading.

Outcome Labs 是去中心化衍生品市场背后的推动力，公布了其对加密衍生品清算危机的最新分析，题为“不要获取 REKT”。这项研究通过研究杠杆加密货币交易中清算的可能性，填补了现有研究的重大空白。

While leveraged trading is often touted as a rapid path to outsized returns, it carries the inherent danger of complete capital loss—a risk that many traders fail to fully appreciate. To assess this risk, Outcome Labs conducted an in-depth analysis of eight years of daily Bitcoin price data.

虽然杠杆交易经常被吹捧为获得巨额回报的快速途径，但它存在着资本完全损失的固有危险——许多交易者未能充分认识到这一风险。为了评估这种风险，Outcome Labs 对八年来的每日比特币价格数据进行了深入分析。

The results are alarming: the risk of liquidation increases exponentially as leverage or holding periods are extended, even for traders who believe they have mitigated risks through short-term strategies.

结果令人震惊：随着杠杆或持有期限的延长，清算风险呈指数级增加，即使对于那些认为自己已经通过短期策略降低了风险的交易者来说也是如此。

“Traders using 25X leverage face a 25% chance of losing 100% of their funds within just 24 hours,” Pete Harrigan, Founder of Outcome Trading, highlights in his commentary on the findings. This stark statistic underscores the critical need for effective risk management strategies in the crypto trading world.

Outcome Trading 创始人 Pete Harrigan 在对调查结果的评论中强调：“使用 25 倍杠杆的交易者有 25% 的可能性在短短 24 小时内损失 100% 的资金。”这一严峻的统计数据强调了加密货币交易世界对有效风险管理策略的迫切需求。

Harrigan further elaborates, “Over a series of 50 trades, the probability of losing all capital surges once leverage exceeds 5x.” This is a crucial insight for both novice and seasoned traders, indicating that the odds are often heavily tilted against those venturing into high-leverage positions without a proper understanding of the risks involved.

Harrigan 进一步阐述道，“在一系列 50 笔交易中，一旦杠杆超过 5 倍，损失所有资本的可能性就会激增。”对于新手和经验丰富的交易者来说，这都是一个至关重要的见解，表明对于那些在没有正确了解所涉及风险的情况下冒险进入高杠杆头寸的人来说，机会往往很大。

One of the key findings of Outcome Labs' research is the debunking of a prevalent myth in the trading community: the belief that shorter time frames can effectively mitigate risk.

Outcome Labs 研究的主要发现之一是揭穿了交易界普遍存在的一个神话：较短的时间框架可以有效降低风险。

While some traders may argue that quick in-and-out trades can shield them from substantial losses, the reality is far more complex. According to the study, liquidations remain a significant threat, even over shorter holding periods. The rapid volatility in the crypto markets can wipe out positions within minutes, regardless of the duration for which they are held.

尽管一些交易者可能认为快速进出交易可以使他们免受重大损失，但现实要复杂得多。根据这项研究，即使持有期限较短，清算仍然是一个重大威胁。加密货币市场的快速波动可能会在几分钟内消除头寸，无论其持有时间长短。

Harrigan drives this point home by referencing data from @BXREKT, which reports approximately 270,000 liquidations over a four-year period. “The data clearly show that liquidations are not a rare event but a common outcome for many traders,” Harrigan notes, “and they often occur when traders least expect them.”

Harrigan 通过引用 @BXREKT 的数据来强调这一点，该数据报告四年内约有 270,000 次清算。哈里根指出：“数据清楚地表明，清算并不是罕见事件，而是许多交易者的常见结果，而且它们经常发生在交易者最意想不到的时候。”

Outcome Labs' analysis spans various holding periods, trading strategies, and a wide range of crypto assets. It offers traders valuable insights into avoiding catastrophic losses while navigating the complexities of leveraged trading.

Outcome Labs 的分析涵盖各种持有期、交易策略和广泛的加密资产。它为交易者提供了宝贵的见解，帮助他们避免灾难性损失，同时应对杠杆交易的复杂性。

The study also reveals that risk increases dramatically not only with higher leverage but also with prolonged holding periods, irrespective of market conditions. These findings highlight the need for advanced risk management tools and strategies, which are critical for anyone involved in leveraged crypto trading.

研究还表明，无论市场状况如何，风险不仅会随着杠杆率的升高而急剧增加，而且随着持有期的延长也会急剧增加。这些发现凸显了对先进风险管理工具和策略的需求，这对于参与杠杆加密货币交易的任何人都至关重要。

For traders aiming to build a sustainable trading strategy, the implications of this research are clear: understanding and managing the risks of leverage are paramount.

对于旨在建立可持续交易策略的交易者来说，这项研究的意义很明确：理解和管理杠杆风险至关重要。

Outcome Trading, through its advanced tools and platform, provides traders with the resources they need to trade smarter, safer, and more profitably.

Outcome Trading 通过其先进的工具和平台，为交易者提供更智能、更安全、更有利可图的交易所需的资源。

To explore the detailed findings, read the full article here: Crawling from the REKage: The Odds of Bankruptcy in Leveraged Trading | by Peter Harrigan | Aug, 2024 | Outcome Trading

要探索详细的调查结果，请阅读全文：从 REKage 中爬行：杠杆交易中破产的可能性 |作者：彼得·哈里根 | 2024 年 8 月 |结果交易

About Outcome Trading

关于结果交易

OutcomeTrading.io is a leading Web3 decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that empowers users to design and execute safe yet powerful derivatives outcomes. Committed to providing a secure and user-friendly trading environment, Outcome Trading helps traders achieve their financial goals while minimizing the risk of liquidation. By focusing on innovative solutions, such as embedded intelligence and advanced trading tools, Outcome Trading is redefining what’s possible in the world of crypto derivatives.

OutcomeTrading.io 是领先的 Web3 去中心化自治组织 (DAO)，使用户能够设计和执行安全而强大的衍生品结果。 Outcome Trading 致力于提供安全且用户友好的交易环境，帮助交易者实现财务目标，同时最大限度地降低清算风险。通过专注于嵌入式智能和先进交易工具等创新解决方案，Outcome Trading 正在重新定义加密货币衍生品世界的可能性。