XRP（XRP）價格警告潛在的25％下降，因為已實現的上限的70％是在最近的高點附近積累的

自2024年底以來，XRP（XRP）已集結了385％以上，但新鮮的OnChain分析警告說，這種激增可能吸引了越來越脆弱的買家。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap was accumulated near recent highs, echoing previous market top patterns.

XRP已實現的上限的70％以上是在最近的高點附近積累的，這與以前的市場頂級模式相呼應。

XRP’s active address count has plunged over 90% since March 2025, signaling reduced transactional demand.

自2025年3月以來，XRP的主動地址數量已跌至90％以上，這會減少交易需求。

A falling wedge pattern points to a potential 25% drop toward key support at the $1.76 level.

下降的楔形模式表明，潛在的25％下降了$ 1.76的水平。

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 385% since late 2024, but fresh onchain analysis from Glassnode warns that this surge may have attracted buyers at increasingly vulnerable levels.

自2024年底以來，XRP（XRP）已集結了385％以上，但玻璃節的新鮮OnChain分析警告說，這種激增可能吸引了越來越脆弱的水平的買家。

XRP (XRP) price chart with realized cap and 3-to-6-month age group. Credit: Glassnode

XRP（XRP）價格圖表，具有限定的上限和3至6個月的年齡組。學分：玻璃節

The realized market capitalization—a measure of the cryptocurrency value based on the price at which each token last moved—shows that more than 70% of XRP’s total realized cap was accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025.

實現的市值（基於每個令牌上次移動的價格，對加密貨幣價值的衡量標準）顯示，在2024年末至2025年初之間，XRP總實現的CAP的70％以上累積了。

The realized cap of the 3-to-6-month age group—a younger coin age band—increased since November 2024.

自2024年11月以來，3到6個月年齡段的已實現的帽子（一個年輕的硬幣年齡樂隊）開始了。

It shows steeper rises after January 2025, to be precise, when the XRP price peaked at around $3.40.

確切地說，當XRP價格達到3.40美元左右時，它表明在2025年1月之後急劇上升。

This "top-heavy" market structure is known to be fragile, especially during times of market correction, as newer investors tend to be more sensitive to price swings, which in turn triggers even sharper sell-offs.

眾所周知，這種“最豐富”的市場結構是脆弱的，尤其是在市場糾正時期，因為新投資者往往對價格波動更敏感，這反過來又觸發了銷售的銷售。

In late 2017, XRP experienced a massive influx of capital in young coins just before peaking at around $3.55, which was followed by a prolonged 95% price drawdown over the ensuing months.

在2017年底，XRP在達到3.55美元左右的年輕硬幣中經歷了大量資本，隨後在隨後的幾個月中延長了95％的價格。

The pattern repeated in 2021, when another sharp rise in the realized cap by short-term holders (0-to-15-day old coins) preceded a nearly 80% decline.

該模式在2021年重複，當時短期持有人（0至15天老硬幣）在實現的上限上又有急劇上升的幅度下降了近80％。

The possibility exists that XRP may have already formed a local top in January 2025 and will continue to decline in the coming months.

XRP可能已經在2025年1月已經形成了本地頂峰的可能性，並將在未來幾個月繼續下降。

The number of active addresses on the XRP chain. Source: Glassnode

XRP鏈上的活動地址數量。來源：玻璃節

New blockchain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s network activity has drastically cooled since March 2025.

來自GlassNode的新區塊鏈數據表明，自2025年3月以來，XRP的網絡活動已大大冷卻。

The number of unique addresses performing at least one transaction on the XRP chain spiked sharply in March 2025, reaching record levels. However, since then, it has dropped by more than 90%.

在2025年3月，在XRP鏈上執行至少一筆交易的獨特地址數量達到了創紀錄的水平。但是，從那時起，它下降了90％以上。

For context, the decline in active addresses has seen activity return to levels last seen before the breakout.

對於上下文，活動地址的下降已經使活動恢復到突破之前的最後一個水平。

Previously, similar divergences between a sustained rise in price and a decline in onchain activity appeared in late 2017 and early 2021—both periods were characterized by significant market reversals.

以前，2017年底和2021年初，價格持續上漲與OnChain活動下降之間的類似差異（兩者都有重大市場逆轉的特徵。

While not necessarily a guaranteed bear market signal, the sharp drop in active addresses could mean that fewer people are using XRP to send or receive funds and more people are holding.

儘管不一定是保證的熊市信號，但主動地址的急劇下降可能意味著更少的人使用XRP發送或接收資金，並且更多的人持有。

XRP 7-day chart showing falling wedge and key levels. Source: Trading View

XRP 7天圖表顯示楔形下降和關鍵水平。資料來源：交易視圖

A technical analysis of XRP’s weekly chart shows the price consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern.

對XRP每週圖表的技術分析顯示了在楔形模式下降的價格合併。

As of May 26, the cryptocurrency was showing signs of entering a short-term correction cycle after failing to breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline.

截至5月26日，加密貨幣顯示出在未能突破楔形的上層趨勢線之上未突破後進入短期校正週期的跡象。

A broader pullback could see the XRP price testing the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around $1.76.

更廣泛的回調可能會使XRP價格測試楔子的較低趨勢線，這與50週的指數移動平均線（50週EMA；紅波）相吻合，約為1.76美元。

This level is critical as it is a key area of support that could limit any further price declines.

該水平至關重要，因為它是支持的關鍵領域，可能會限制任何進一步的價格下降。

From the recent highs, the potential drop from the wedge could be as large as 25%.

從最近的高點來看，楔形物的潛在下降可能高達25％。