XRP（XRP）价格警告潜在的25％下降，因为已实现的上限的70％是在最近的高点附近积累的

自2024年底以来，XRP（XRP）已集结了385％以上，但新鲜的OnChain分析警告说，这种激增可能吸引了越来越脆弱的买家。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap was accumulated near recent highs, echoing previous market top patterns.

XRP已实现的上限的70％以上是在最近的高点附近积累的，这与以前的市场顶级模式相呼应。

XRP’s active address count has plunged over 90% since March 2025, signaling reduced transactional demand.

自2025年3月以来，XRP的主动地址数量已跌至90％以上，这会减少交易需求。

A falling wedge pattern points to a potential 25% drop toward key support at the $1.76 level.

下降的楔形模式表明，潜在的25％下降了$ 1.76的水平。

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 385% since late 2024, but fresh onchain analysis from Glassnode warns that this surge may have attracted buyers at increasingly vulnerable levels.

自2024年底以来，XRP（XRP）已集结了385％以上，但玻璃节的新鲜OnChain分析警告说，这种激增可能吸引了越来越脆弱的水平的买家。

XRP (XRP) price chart with realized cap and 3-to-6-month age group. Credit: Glassnode

XRP（XRP）价格图表，具有限定的上限和3至6个月的年龄组。学分：玻璃节

The realized market capitalization—a measure of the cryptocurrency value based on the price at which each token last moved—shows that more than 70% of XRP’s total realized cap was accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025.

实现的市值（基于每个令牌上次移动的价格，对加密货币价值的衡量标准）显示，在2024年末至2025年初之间，XRP总实现的CAP的70％以上累积了。

The realized cap of the 3-to-6-month age group—a younger coin age band—increased since November 2024.

自2024年11月以来，3到6个月年龄段的已实现的帽子（一个年轻的硬币年龄乐队）开始了。

It shows steeper rises after January 2025, to be precise, when the XRP price peaked at around $3.40.

确切地说，当XRP价格达到3.40美元左右时，它表明在2025年1月之后急剧上升。

This "top-heavy" market structure is known to be fragile, especially during times of market correction, as newer investors tend to be more sensitive to price swings, which in turn triggers even sharper sell-offs.

众所周知，这种“最丰富”的市场结构是脆弱的，尤其是在市场纠正时期，因为新投资者往往对价格波动更敏感，这反过来又触发了销售的销售。

In late 2017, XRP experienced a massive influx of capital in young coins just before peaking at around $3.55, which was followed by a prolonged 95% price drawdown over the ensuing months.

在2017年底，XRP在达到3.55美元左右的年轻硬币中经历了大量资本，随后在随后的几个月中延长了95％的价格。

The pattern repeated in 2021, when another sharp rise in the realized cap by short-term holders (0-to-15-day old coins) preceded a nearly 80% decline.

该模式在2021年重复，当时短期持有人（0至15天老硬币）在实现的上限上又有急剧上升的幅度下降了近80％。

The possibility exists that XRP may have already formed a local top in January 2025 and will continue to decline in the coming months.

XRP可能已经在2025年1月已经形成了本地顶峰的可能性，并将在未来几个月继续下降。

The number of active addresses on the XRP chain. Source: Glassnode

XRP链上的活动地址数量。来源：玻璃节

New blockchain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s network activity has drastically cooled since March 2025.

来自GlassNode的新区块链数据表明，自2025年3月以来，XRP的网络活动已大大冷却。

The number of unique addresses performing at least one transaction on the XRP chain spiked sharply in March 2025, reaching record levels. However, since then, it has dropped by more than 90%.

在2025年3月，在XRP链上执行至少一笔交易的独特地址数量达到了创纪录的水平。但是，从那时起，它下降了90％以上。

For context, the decline in active addresses has seen activity return to levels last seen before the breakout.

对于上下文，活动地址的下降已经使活动恢复到突破之前的最后一个水平。

Previously, similar divergences between a sustained rise in price and a decline in onchain activity appeared in late 2017 and early 2021—both periods were characterized by significant market reversals.

以前，2017年底和2021年初，价格持续上涨与OnChain活动下降之间的类似差异（两者都有重大市场逆转的特征。

While not necessarily a guaranteed bear market signal, the sharp drop in active addresses could mean that fewer people are using XRP to send or receive funds and more people are holding.

尽管不一定是保证的熊市信号，但主动地址的急剧下降可能意味着更少的人使用XRP发送或接收资金，并且更多的人持有。

XRP 7-day chart showing falling wedge and key levels. Source: Trading View

XRP 7天图表显示楔形下降和关键水平。资料来源：交易视图

A technical analysis of XRP’s weekly chart shows the price consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern.

对XRP每周图表的技术分析显示了在楔形模式下降的价格合并。

As of May 26, the cryptocurrency was showing signs of entering a short-term correction cycle after failing to breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline.

截至5月26日，加密货币显示出在未能突破楔形的上层趋势线之上未突破后进入短期校正周期的迹象。

A broader pullback could see the XRP price testing the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around $1.76.

更广泛的回调可能会使XRP价格测试楔子的较低趋势线，这与50周的指数移动平均线（50周EMA；红波）相吻合，约为1.76美元。

This level is critical as it is a key area of support that could limit any further price declines.

该水平至关重要，因为它是支持的关键领域，可能会限制任何进一步的价格下降。

From the recent highs, the potential drop from the wedge could be as large as 25%.

从最近的高点来看，楔形物的潜在下降可能高达25％。