XRP (XRP) Price Warns of Potential 25% Drop as 70% of the Realized Cap Was Accumulated Near Recent Highs

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 385% since late 2024, but fresh onchain analysis warns that this surge may have attracted buyers at increasingly vulnerable levels.

Key takeaways:

Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap was accumulated near recent highs, echoing previous market top patterns.

XRP’s active address count has plunged over 90% since March 2025, signaling reduced transactional demand.

A falling wedge pattern points to a potential 25% drop toward key support at the $1.76 level.

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 385% since late 2024, but fresh onchain analysis from Glassnode warns that this surge may have attracted buyers at increasingly vulnerable levels.

XRP (XRP) price chart with realized cap and 3-to-6-month age group. Credit: Glassnode

The realized market capitalization—a measure of the cryptocurrency value based on the price at which each token last moved—shows that more than 70% of XRP’s total realized cap was accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025.

The realized cap of the 3-to-6-month age group—a younger coin age band—increased since November 2024.

It shows steeper rises after January 2025, to be precise, when the XRP price peaked at around $3.40.

This "top-heavy" market structure is known to be fragile, especially during times of market correction, as newer investors tend to be more sensitive to price swings, which in turn triggers even sharper sell-offs.

In late 2017, XRP experienced a massive influx of capital in young coins just before peaking at around $3.55, which was followed by a prolonged 95% price drawdown over the ensuing months.

The pattern repeated in 2021, when another sharp rise in the realized cap by short-term holders (0-to-15-day old coins) preceded a nearly 80% decline.

The possibility exists that XRP may have already formed a local top in January 2025 and will continue to decline in the coming months.

The number of active addresses on the XRP chain. Source: Glassnode

New blockchain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s network activity has drastically cooled since March 2025.

The number of unique addresses performing at least one transaction on the XRP chain spiked sharply in March 2025, reaching record levels. However, since then, it has dropped by more than 90%.

For context, the decline in active addresses has seen activity return to levels last seen before the breakout.

Previously, similar divergences between a sustained rise in price and a decline in onchain activity appeared in late 2017 and early 2021—both periods were characterized by significant market reversals.

While not necessarily a guaranteed bear market signal, the sharp drop in active addresses could mean that fewer people are using XRP to send or receive funds and more people are holding.

XRP 7-day chart showing falling wedge and key levels. Source: Trading View

A technical analysis of XRP’s weekly chart shows the price consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern.

As of May 26, the cryptocurrency was showing signs of entering a short-term correction cycle after failing to breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline.

A broader pullback could see the XRP price testing the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around $1.76.

This level is critical as it is a key area of support that could limit any further price declines.

From the recent highs, the potential drop from the wedge could be as large as 25%.