XRP（XRP）彈跳近30％

XRP（XRP）在關稅緊張局勢上升的四個月低點為1.61美元之後，已彈跳近30％。但是，反彈可能是短暫的

After hitting a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions, XRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30%. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.

在關稅緊張局勢上升的情況下，XRP（XRP）擊中了$ 1.61的四個月低點1.61美元之後，彈跳了近30％。但是，反彈可能是短暫的，因為技術模式和鏈上信號現在表明了更深入的校正。

On-chain signals suggest 40% XRP price drop

鏈信號表明40％XRP價格下跌

XRP is currently forming an inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern on the 3-day chart, which could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.

XRP目前在3天圖表上形成了逆杯與手柄（IC＆H）模式，在接下來的幾週內，其價格至少下降了40％。

The pattern, often used to identify bearish market reversals, consists of a curved price decline (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) — all atop a common neckline support level.

這種模式通常用於識別看跌市場的逆轉，包括彎曲的價格下降（CUP），然後是短暫的合併階段（手柄） - 所有這些都處於共同的領口支持水平之上。

The pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

該模式通過崩潰階段確認，在該階段，價格果斷地削減了支持，並下降了模式的最大高度。

As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern’s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.

截至4月19日，XRP進入了模式的手柄形成階段，將領口支撐下方的決定性近距離近2美元左右。在這種情況下，主要的下行目標可能為1.24美元左右，幾乎比當前價格低40％。

The IC&H target aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 — and further coincides with a November 2024 top.

IC＆H目標與XRP的200-3d指數移動平均線（200-3d EMA；藍波）保持一致，約為1.28美元，並與2024年11月的最高點相吻合。

Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that a 50% drop in XRP’s market cap could occur in the coming weeks.

此外，經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）認為，在接下來的幾週內，XRP的市值下降了50％。

According to on-chain analysis, such a scenario would place the realized price around $1— a likely level for a deeper correction in 2025.

根據鏈分析，這種情況將使已實現的價格約為1美元，這可能是2025年更深層更正的水平。

XRP onchain fractal: 50% correction in 2025

XRP OnChain分形：2025年50％的校正

XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out.

XRP的倒數盃和手柄模式與其歷史價格行為一致，這表明其2025年的拉力賽可能已經淘汰了。

For instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.

例如，加密貨幣在以前的周期中發生了重大衝動後，急劇的回調達到了總體上實現的價格，最著名的是在2018年和2021年。

For traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved.

對於交易者來說，實現的價格是一種心理基準，代表了XRP供應上次移動的平均價格。

When the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.

當市場價格交易遠高於此級別時，大多數持有人都在獲利，這可以鼓勵自滿或獲利。相反，如果價格接近已實現的價格，對損失的恐懼往往會上升，而銷售壓力會加劇。

In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.

在2025年，XRP飆升了3.20美元，然後損失了蒸汽，在過去的公牛到熊週期中看到的重複模式。目前的價格約為1美元，這是2025年的下行目標，比當前價格下降了約50％。

Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March.

有趣的是，XRP的1美元實現目標目標更接近其200週EMA（下圖中的藍波），為0.81美元，這是Cointelegraph在3月下旬的分析中討論的熊市市場目標。

Adding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.

除看跌前景外，當前有80％以上的XRP地址是盈利的。從歷史上看，該指標在以前的市場頂部達到了相似的水平，通常是在盈利和回調的大量回合之前。

Related: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is why

相關：XRP供應量的81.6％是有利的，但韓國的交易員正在變成看跌 - 這就是為什麼

If history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price.

如果歷史重複，這種類似的條件可能會激勵交易者退出職位，從而加速XRP的回溯到實現的價格。

Odds of XRP hitting record highs are declining

XRP命中紀錄高點的機率正在下降

Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket.

根據PolyMarket的預測市場數據，XRP周圍的情感達到了$ 3.55的新歷史高度。

As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.

截至4月19日，XRP在2026年之前實現這一里程碑的機率下降到僅35％，標誌著3月份的峰值置信度下降了25％，如下所示。

The upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump’s trade policies.

加密貨幣市場的上升勢頭在4月的總體上逐漸消失，這與唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的貿易政策升級的全球關稅緊張局勢升級，風險食慾越來越大。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。