XRP（XRP）弹跳近30％

XRP（XRP）在关税紧张局势上升的四个月低点为1.61美元之后，已弹跳近30％。但是，反弹可能是短暂的

After hitting a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions, XRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30%. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.

在关税紧张局势上升的情况下，XRP（XRP）击中了$ 1.61的四个月低点1.61美元之后，弹跳了近30％。但是，反弹可能是短暂的，因为技术模式和链上信号现在表明了更深入的校正。

On-chain signals suggest 40% XRP price drop

链信号表明40％XRP价格下跌

XRP is currently forming an inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern on the 3-day chart, which could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.

XRP目前在3天图表上形成了逆杯与手柄（IC＆H）模式，在接下来的几周内，其价格至少下降了40％。

The pattern, often used to identify bearish market reversals, consists of a curved price decline (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) — all atop a common neckline support level.

这种模式通常用于识别看跌市场的逆转，包括弯曲的价格下降（CUP），然后是短暂的合并阶段（手柄） - 所有这些都处于共同的领口支持水平之上。

The pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

该模式通过崩溃阶段确认，在该阶段，价格果断地削减了支持，并下降了模式的最大高度。

As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern’s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.

截至4月19日，XRP进入了模式的手柄形成阶段，将领口支撑下方的决定性近距离近2美元左右。在这种情况下，主要的下行目标可能为1.24美元左右，几乎比当前价格低40％。

The IC&H target aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 — and further coincides with a November 2024 top.

IC＆H目标与XRP的200-3d指数移动平均线（200-3d EMA；蓝波）保持一致，约为1.28美元，并与2024年11月的最高点相吻合。

Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that a 50% drop in XRP’s market cap could occur in the coming weeks.

此外，经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）认为，在接下来的几周内，XRP的市值下降了50％。

According to on-chain analysis, such a scenario would place the realized price around $1— a likely level for a deeper correction in 2025.

根据链分析，这种情况将使已实现的价格约为1美元，这可能是2025年更深层更正的水平。

XRP onchain fractal: 50% correction in 2025

XRP OnChain分形：2025年50％的校正

XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out.

XRP的倒数杯和手柄模式与其历史价格行为一致，这表明其2025年的拉力赛可能已经淘汰了。

For instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.

例如，加密货币在以前的周期中发生了重大冲动后，急剧的回调达到了总体上实现的价格，最著名的是在2018年和2021年。

For traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved.

对于交易者来说，实现的价格是一种心理基准，代表了XRP供应上次移动的平均价格。

When the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.

当市场价格交易远高于此级别时，大多数持有人都在获利，这可以鼓励自满或获利。相反，如果价格接近已实现的价格，对损失的恐惧往往会上升，而销售压力会加剧。

In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.

在2025年，XRP飙升了3.20美元，然后损失了蒸汽，在过去的公牛到熊周期中看到的重复模式。目前的价格约为1美元，这是2025年的下行目标，比当前价格下降了约50％。

Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March.

有趣的是，XRP的1美元实现目标目标更接近其200周EMA（下图中的蓝波），为0.81美元，这是Cointelegraph在3月下旬的分析中讨论的熊市市场目标。

Adding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.

除看跌前景外，当前有80％以上的XRP地址是盈利的。从历史上看，该指标在以前的市场顶部达到了相似的水平，通常是在盈利和回调的大量回合之前。

Related: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is why

相关：XRP供应量的81.6％是有利的，但韩国的交易员正在变成看跌 - 这就是为什么

If history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price.

如果历史重复，这种类似的条件可能会激励交易者退出职位，从而加速XRP的回溯到实现的价格。

Odds of XRP hitting record highs are declining

XRP命中纪录高点的几率正在下降

Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket.

根据PolyMarket的预测市场数据，XRP周围的情感达到了$ 3.55的新历史高度。

As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.

截至4月19日，XRP在2026年之前实现这一里程碑的几率下降到仅35％，标志着3月份的峰值置信度下降了25％，如下所示。

The upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump’s trade policies.

加密货币市场的上升势头在4月的总体上逐渐消失，这与唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的贸易政策升级的全球关税紧张局势升级，风险食欲越来越大。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。