經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）對X的猜測，比特幣可以重複其2022年模式並糾正75％

Swyftx首席分析師Pav Hundal告訴Cointelegraph：“永遠不要說永遠不會說；目前感覺不太可能。”

Cryptocurrency analysts are skeptical of veteran trader Peter Brandt’s recent speculation on X that Bitcoin (BTC) could repeat its 2022 pattern and correct by 75%.

加密貨幣分析師對資深商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）最近對X的猜測持懷疑態度，即比特幣（BTC）可以重複其2022年模式並糾正75％。

“Never say never, but it just feels very unlikely at the moment, given the difference in macro fundamentals between now and 2022 is profound,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.

Swyftx首席分析師Pav Hundal告訴Cointelegraph：“永遠不要說永遠不會說，但是目前感覺不太可能。”

Peter Brandt says it “doesn’t hurt to ask”

彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）說，“問問沒有傷害”

It comes after Brandt’s recent speculative post on X, questioning whether Bitcoin’s price action will mirror the severe decline in 2022.

這是在勃蘭特最近在X上發表的投機帖子之後，質疑比特幣的價格行動是否會反映2022年的嚴重下降。

In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69,000, only to drop by around 76% over the next 12 months, reaching approximately $16,195 by November 2022, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根據CoinMarketCap數據，在2021年11月，比特幣達到了69,000美元的歷史最高點，僅在接下來的12個月中下降了約76％，到2022年11月，比特幣達到了約16,195美元。

“Is Bitcoin $BTC following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt said in a post on Tuesday.

“比特幣$ btc之後的2022腳本並設置了75％的更正嗎？問這個問題，不是嗎？”布蘭特在周二的帖子中說。

If a similar decline happened from Bitcoin’s current price of $107,810, it would fall to around $26,000, a level not seen since September 2023.

如果比特幣目前的價格為107,810美元的類似下降，那將降至26,000美元左右，這是自2023年9月以來未見的水平。

However, Hundal argues the circumstances are significantly different now.

但是，Hundal認為現在情​​況有很大不同。

“In 2022, we had an economic hangover from the COVID-era of money printing and stimulus. The environment today is totally different,” he explained. An August 2021 survey showed that one in ten Americans between 18 and 34 invested part of their COVID-19 stimulus checks into crypto assets.

他解釋說：“在2022年，我們從貨幣印刷和刺激的共同時期遇到了經濟宿醉。當今的環境完全不同。” 2021年8月的一項調查顯示，十分之一的美國人在18至34名之間，將其共同刺激的一部分投資於加密資產。

FTX, Fed stance and other factors impacted the 2021 cycle

FTX，FED姿態和其他因素影響了2021週期

Bitcoin author and analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged Brandt’s reasoning for a correction but disagreed that it would be as drastic.

比特幣作者兼分析師安迪·埃德斯特羅姆（Andy Edstrom）承認布蘭特（Brandt）進行了更正的推理，但不同意這會很激烈。

“So far it is, but not the 75% magnitude because the dip between the double-tops this year was far less severe than in 2021,” Edstrom said.

埃德斯特羅姆說：“到目前為止，但不是75％的幅度，因為今年的雙端傾角之間的傾角遠不及2021年。”

Edstrom said the 2021 cycle “was truncated” by the collapse of FTC, with the crypto exchange “failing to fill its customers’ orders and instead selling them ‘paper’ BTC.”

埃德斯特羅姆（Edstrom）表示，2021週期“被FTC崩潰了”，加密交易所“未能填寫客戶的訂單，而是向他們出售'Paper'BTC”。

Edstrom also attributed the steep decline in 2021 to the US Federal Reserve’s move toward a more hawkish stance.

埃德斯特羅姆（Edstrom）還將2021年的急劇下降歸因於美國美聯儲朝著更鷹派的立場邁進。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Collective Shift senior research analyst Simon Amery said while the Federal Reserve started winding down quantitative easing in November 2021, monetary policy is now "heading in the opposite direction."

集體輪班高級研究分析師西蒙·阿默里（Simon Amery）在對Cointelegraph的講話中說，美聯儲於2021年11月開始減少量化寬鬆時，貨幣政策現在“朝著相反的方向前進”。

Saylor shuts down any bear calls over Bitcoin

Saylor關閉了通過比特幣的任何熊電話

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the prediction is unlikely, as Bitcoin’s price hasn’t peaked yet.

同時，加密分析師Colin Talks Crypto認為這一預測不太可能，因為比特幣的價格尚未達到頂峰。

“Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria on the timeline,” he said.

他說：“這是最高的情緒。時間表上沒有欣喜。”

Hundal said that while some technical analysis is "pointing to a big cyclical wash," all the evidence he sees is that Bitcoin is "sitting at an inflection point for easing conditions."

洪達爾說，儘管某些技術分析“指向大型週期性清洗”，但他看到的所有證據表明比特幣“坐在緩解條件下的拐點處”。

Ultimately, seeing a scenario where Bitcoin drops by 75% from current levels "would require a macroeconomic event or series of events of truly surprising proportions," he added.

最終，看到比特幣從當前水平上下降75％的情況“將需要宏觀經濟事件或一系列真正令人驚訝的比例，”他補充說。

Strategy co-founder and Bitcoin maxi Michael Saylor is strongly against any chance of a Bitcoin drawdown soon.

策略聯合創始人和比特幣Maxi Michael Saylor很快就會與比特幣降低的任何機會。

“Winter is not coming back. We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” Saylor told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

塞勒在周二對彭博社說：“冬天沒有回來。我們已經過去了；如果比特幣不會達到零，那將達到100萬美元。”