经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）对X的猜测，比特币可以重复其2022年模式并纠正75％

Swyftx首席分析师Pav Hundal告诉Cointelegraph：“永远不要说永远不会说；目前感觉不太可能。”

Cryptocurrency analysts are skeptical of veteran trader Peter Brandt’s recent speculation on X that Bitcoin (BTC) could repeat its 2022 pattern and correct by 75%.

加密货币分析师对资深商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）最近对X的猜测持怀疑态度，即比特币（BTC）可以重复其2022年模式并纠正75％。

“Never say never, but it just feels very unlikely at the moment, given the difference in macro fundamentals between now and 2022 is profound,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.

Swyftx首席分析师Pav Hundal告诉Cointelegraph：“永远不要说永远不会说，但是目前感觉不太可能。”

Peter Brandt says it “doesn’t hurt to ask”

彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）说，“问问没有伤害”

It comes after Brandt’s recent speculative post on X, questioning whether Bitcoin’s price action will mirror the severe decline in 2022.

这是在勃兰特最近在X上发表的投机帖子之后，质疑比特币的价格行动是否会反映2022年的严重下降。

In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69,000, only to drop by around 76% over the next 12 months, reaching approximately $16,195 by November 2022, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根据CoinMarketCap数据，在2021年11月，比特币达到了69,000美元的历史最高点，仅在接下来的12个月中下降了约76％，到2022年11月，比特币达到了约16,195美元。

“Is Bitcoin $BTC following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt said in a post on Tuesday.

“比特币$ btc之后的2022脚本并设置了75％的更正吗？问这个问题，不是吗？”布兰特在周二的帖子中说。

If a similar decline happened from Bitcoin’s current price of $107,810, it would fall to around $26,000, a level not seen since September 2023.

如果比特币目前的价格为107,810美元的类似下降，那将降至26,000美元左右，这是自2023年9月以来未见的水平。

However, Hundal argues the circumstances are significantly different now.

但是，Hundal认为现在情​​况有很大不同。

“In 2022, we had an economic hangover from the COVID-era of money printing and stimulus. The environment today is totally different,” he explained. An August 2021 survey showed that one in ten Americans between 18 and 34 invested part of their COVID-19 stimulus checks into crypto assets.

他解释说：“在2022年，我们从货币印刷和刺激的共同时期遇到了经济宿醉。当今的环境完全不同。” 2021年8月的一项调查显示，十分之一的美国人在18至34名之间，将其共同刺激的一部分投资于加密资产。

FTX, Fed stance and other factors impacted the 2021 cycle

FTX，FED姿态和其他因素影响了2021周期

Bitcoin author and analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged Brandt’s reasoning for a correction but disagreed that it would be as drastic.

比特币作者兼分析师安迪·埃德斯特罗姆（Andy Edstrom）承认布兰特（Brandt）进行了更正的推理，但不同意这会很激烈。

“So far it is, but not the 75% magnitude because the dip between the double-tops this year was far less severe than in 2021,” Edstrom said.

埃德斯特罗姆说：“到目前为止，但不是75％的幅度，因为今年的双端倾角之间的倾角远不及2021年。”

Edstrom said the 2021 cycle “was truncated” by the collapse of FTC, with the crypto exchange “failing to fill its customers’ orders and instead selling them ‘paper’ BTC.”

埃德斯特罗姆（Edstrom）表示，2021周期“被FTC崩溃了”，加密交易所“未能填写客户的订单，而是向他们出售'Paper'BTC”。

Edstrom also attributed the steep decline in 2021 to the US Federal Reserve’s move toward a more hawkish stance.

埃德斯特罗姆（Edstrom）还将2021年的急剧下降归因于美国美联储朝着更鹰派的立场迈进。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Collective Shift senior research analyst Simon Amery said while the Federal Reserve started winding down quantitative easing in November 2021, monetary policy is now "heading in the opposite direction."

集体轮班高级研究分析师西蒙·阿默里（Simon Amery）在对Cointelegraph的讲话中说，美联储于2021年11月开始减少量化宽松时，货币政策现在“朝着相反的方向前进”。

Saylor shuts down any bear calls over Bitcoin

Saylor关闭了通过比特币的任何熊电话

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the prediction is unlikely, as Bitcoin’s price hasn’t peaked yet.

同时，加密分析师Colin Talks Crypto认为这一预测不太可能，因为比特币的价格尚未达到顶峰。

“Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria on the timeline,” he said.

他说：“这是最高的情绪。时间表上没有欣喜。”

Hundal said that while some technical analysis is "pointing to a big cyclical wash," all the evidence he sees is that Bitcoin is "sitting at an inflection point for easing conditions."

洪达尔说，尽管某些技术分析“指向大型周期性清洗”，但他看到的所有证据表明比特币“坐在缓解条件下的拐点处”。

Ultimately, seeing a scenario where Bitcoin drops by 75% from current levels "would require a macroeconomic event or series of events of truly surprising proportions," he added.

最终，看到比特币从当前水平上下降75％的情况“将需要宏观经济事件或一系列真正令人惊讶的比例，”他补充说。

Strategy co-founder and Bitcoin maxi Michael Saylor is strongly against any chance of a Bitcoin drawdown soon.

策略联合创始人和比特币Maxi Michael Saylor很快就会与比特币降低的任何机会。

“Winter is not coming back. We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” Saylor told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

塞勒在周二对彭博社说：“冬天没有回来。我们已经过去了；如果比特币不会达到零，那将达到100万美元。”