比特幣價值隨時間的趨勢通常與美元的趨勢有關。

為了精確起見，從中長期來看，比特幣價格的變動與美元指數的變動成反比

The trend over time of the value of Bitcoin is usually correlated with that of the US dollar.

比特幣價值隨時間的趨勢通常與美元的趨勢有關。

For precision, in the medium/long term, the variations in the price of Bitcoin are inversely correlated to those of the Dollar Index, the index that measures the strength of the US dollar compared to a basket of other important currencies globally.

為了精確起見，從中長期來看，比特幣價格的變化與美元指數的變化呈負相關，美元指數衡量美元相對於全球一籃子其他重要貨幣的強勢程度。

The decorrelation of Bitcoin from the value of the dollar

比特幣與美元價值的去相關性

Sometimes, however, in the short term, this inverse correlation breaks.

然而，有時，在短期內，這種逆相關性會被打破。

It is what happened after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections on November 5 in the USA.

這就是唐納德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 於 11 月 5 日在美國總統選舉中獲勝後發生的事情。

In fact, that day the Dollar Index was well below 104 points, and in just over two weeks it rose to over 107 points, marking the highest annual record of 2024.

事實上，當天美元指數遠低於104點，在短短兩週內就升至107點以上，創下2024年的年度最高紀錄。

Trump’s victory, however, also gave wings to Bitcoin.

然而，川普的勝利也為比特幣插上了翅膀。

The value of a Bitcoin before the elections was less than $70,000, while in just over two weeks it has risen well above $99,000.

選舉前比特幣的價值還不到 7 萬美元，而在短短兩週多的時間裡，比特幣的價值已遠高於 9.9 萬美元。

In other words, in the same period in which the Dollar Index was rising, Bitcoin was also rising, both driven by Trump’s victory.

換句話說，在美元指數上漲的同一時期，比特幣也在上漲，兩者都是受到川普勝利的推動。

The return to normality

回歸常態

This dynamic continued until November 22.

這種動態一直持續到11月22日。

In the four following days, the Dollar Index fell, returning abundantly below 107 points, and the value of Bitcoin also fell, momentarily returning below $92,000.

接下來的四天裡，美元指數下跌，大幅跌破107點，比特幣的價值也下跌，暫時跌破9.2萬美元。

So until November 26, the two trends seemed apparently correlated.

因此直到 11 月 26 日，這兩種趨勢似乎明顯相關。

The return to normality, that is the inverse correlation between the trend of the Dollar Index and that of the BTC price, arrived last Wednesday, November 27.

11 月 27 日上週三，美元指數走勢與 BTC 價格走勢呈負相關，回歸常態。

In fact, on that date, the Dollar Index continued to fall, so much so that by Friday it had also dropped below 106 points, while the price of Bitcoin started to rise again.

事實上，當天美元指數持續下跌，到週五也跌破106點，而比特幣價格又開始上漲。

However, the decline of the dollar was small and brief, so it is not surprising that the rise of Bitcoin was also small and brief.

然而，美元的下跌幅度小而短暫，因此比特幣的上漲也小而短暫也就不足為奇了。

Furthermore, today the Dollar Index is showing a small rebound, as it has returned to about 106.3 points, and the price of Bitcoin has fallen from yesterday’s $97,000 to about $96,000.

此外，今天美元指數出現小幅反彈，已回到106.3點左右，比特幣價格也從昨天的97,000美元跌至96,000美元左右。

So the phase of inverse decorrelation has ended, and it has returned to a phase of inverse correlation, as per the manual.

因此，逆去相關階段已經結束，根據手冊，它已經返回到逆去相關階段。

The evolution of the value of Bitcoin and dollar in the coming days

未來幾天比特幣和美元價值的演變

Regarding the possible evolution of these dynamics in the coming days, it is important to make a significant distinction.

關於未來幾天這些動態可能的演變，重要的是要做出重大區分。

In fact, in the short term, it seems possible that the Dollar Index may remain high, or even increase a bit more after having fallen last week.

事實上，短期來看，美元指數在上週下跌後，似乎有可能維持高位，甚至進一步上漲。

However, it also seems likely that the value of Bitcoin could rise.

然而，比特幣的價值似乎也可能上漲。

In other words, it would not be surprising if the inverse correlation jumped again, in the short term, until after the middle of the month.

換句話說，如果逆相關性在短期內再次上升，直到月中之後，就不足為奇了。

For example, in 2016, when Donald Trump won for the first time, the Dollar Index rose until November 23, then slightly fell until December 5. However, it then rose again from December 8 to December 20, before stopping, and started a decline in January that lasted 12 months.

例如，2016年唐納德·川普首次獲勝時，美元指數一直上漲到11月23日，然後小幅下跌，直到12月5日。 ，並開始下跌1月份，持續了12個月。

On the other hand, it is not at all impossible that from now until December 20, the price of Bitcoin will rise, perhaps even beyond that mythical $100,000 so eagerly awaited by the bull and bear community of bitcoiner.

另一方面，從現在到 12 月 20 日，比特幣的價格上漲，甚至可能超越比特幣牛市和熊市社區熱切期待的神話般的 10 萬美元，也並非不可能。

The evolution in the medium/long term

中長期演變

However, if the Dollar Index were to actually start to decline between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the inverse correlation with the trend of Bitcoin’s value could be reestablished.

然而，如果美元指數在 2024 年底至 2025 年初之間真正開始下跌，則可能會重新建立與比特幣價值趨勢的負相關關係。

In 2016/2017, for example, the 12 months of decline in the Dollar Index corresponded almost exactly to the second major bullrun of the BTC price, which went from less than $1,000 to almost $20,000 in less than 12 months.

例如，2016/2017 年，美元指數連續12 個月的下跌幾乎恰好對應了BTC 價格的第二次大牛市，在不到12 個月的時間裡，比特幣價格從不到1,000 美元漲至近20,000 美元。

It should also be added that both after Trump’s first election in 2016 and after Joe Biden’s in 2020, the Dollar Index ended up falling around 90 points, after being above 103 points in both cases the previous year.

還應該補充的是，在川普2016年首次當選和2020年喬·拜登當選後，美元指數最終下跌了90點左右，而前一年兩次都超過了103點。

In this 2024 it has pushed beyond 107 points, and if it were to drop for practically twelve consecutive months down to the usual 90 points, it could help Bitcoin rise quite a bit.

2024 年，比特幣價格已突破 107 點，如果連續 12 個月下跌至通常的 90 點，可能會幫助比特幣大幅上漲。

The record

記錄

To all this must be added that in November 2024 the value of Bitcoin recorded the all-time high regarding the monthly price increase in absolute terms (+$26,0

除此之外，必須補充一點的是，2024 年 11 月，比特幣的價值創下了每月絕對價格漲幅的歷史新高（+26.0 美元）。