比特币价值随时间的趋势通常与美元的趋势相关。

为了精确起见，从中长期来看，比特币价格的变化与美元指数的变化成反比

The trend over time of the value of Bitcoin is usually correlated with that of the US dollar.

比特币价值随时间的趋势通常与美元的趋势相关。

For precision, in the medium/long term, the variations in the price of Bitcoin are inversely correlated to those of the Dollar Index, the index that measures the strength of the US dollar compared to a basket of other important currencies globally.

为了精确起见，从中长期来看，比特币价格的变化与美元指数的变化呈负相关，美元指数衡量美元相对于全球一篮子其他重要货币的强势程度。

The decorrelation of Bitcoin from the value of the dollar

比特币与美元价值的去相关性

Sometimes, however, in the short term, this inverse correlation breaks.

然而，有时，在短期内，这种逆相关性会被打破。

It is what happened after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections on November 5 in the USA.

这就是唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 于 11 月 5 日在美国总统选举中获胜后发生的事情。

In fact, that day the Dollar Index was well below 104 points, and in just over two weeks it rose to over 107 points, marking the highest annual record of 2024.

事实上，当天美元指数远低于104点，在短短两周内就升至107点以上，创下2024年的年度最高纪录。

Trump’s victory, however, also gave wings to Bitcoin.

然而，特朗普的胜利也给比特币插上了翅膀。

The value of a Bitcoin before the elections was less than $70,000, while in just over two weeks it has risen well above $99,000.

选举前比特币的价值还不到 70,000 美元，而在短短两周多的时间里，比特币的价值已远高于 99,000 美元。

In other words, in the same period in which the Dollar Index was rising, Bitcoin was also rising, both driven by Trump’s victory.

换句话说，在美元指数上涨的同一时期，比特币也在上涨，两者都是受到特朗普胜利的推动。

The return to normality

回归常态

This dynamic continued until November 22.

这种动态一直持续到11月22日。

In the four following days, the Dollar Index fell, returning abundantly below 107 points, and the value of Bitcoin also fell, momentarily returning below $92,000.

接下来的四天里，美元指数下跌，大幅跌破107点，比特币的价值也下跌，暂时跌破92,000美元。

So until November 26, the two trends seemed apparently correlated.

因此直到 11 月 26 日，这两种趋势似乎明显相关。

The return to normality, that is the inverse correlation between the trend of the Dollar Index and that of the BTC price, arrived last Wednesday, November 27.

11 月 27 日上周三，美元指数走势与 BTC 价格走势呈负相关，回归常态。

In fact, on that date, the Dollar Index continued to fall, so much so that by Friday it had also dropped below 106 points, while the price of Bitcoin started to rise again.

事实上，当天美元指数继续下跌，到周五也跌破106点，而比特币价格又开始上涨。

However, the decline of the dollar was small and brief, so it is not surprising that the rise of Bitcoin was also small and brief.

然而，美元的下跌幅度小而短暂，因此比特币的上涨也小而短暂也就不足为奇了。

Furthermore, today the Dollar Index is showing a small rebound, as it has returned to about 106.3 points, and the price of Bitcoin has fallen from yesterday’s $97,000 to about $96,000.

此外，今天美元指数出现小幅反弹，已回到106.3点左右，比特币价格也从昨天的97,000美元跌至96,000美元左右。

So the phase of inverse decorrelation has ended, and it has returned to a phase of inverse correlation, as per the manual.

因此，逆去相关阶段已经结束，并且根据手册，它已经返回到逆相关阶段。

The evolution of the value of Bitcoin and dollar in the coming days

未来几天比特币和美元价值的演变

Regarding the possible evolution of these dynamics in the coming days, it is important to make a significant distinction.

关于未来几天这些动态可能的演变，重要的是要做出重大区分。

In fact, in the short term, it seems possible that the Dollar Index may remain high, or even increase a bit more after having fallen last week.

事实上，短期来看，美元指数在上周下跌后，似乎有可能保持高位，甚至进一步上涨。

However, it also seems likely that the value of Bitcoin could rise.

然而，比特币的价值似乎也可能上涨。

In other words, it would not be surprising if the inverse correlation jumped again, in the short term, until after the middle of the month.

换句话说，如果逆相关性在短期内再次上升，直到月中之后，也就不足为奇了。

For example, in 2016, when Donald Trump won for the first time, the Dollar Index rose until November 23, then slightly fell until December 5. However, it then rose again from December 8 to December 20, before stopping, and started a decline in January that lasted 12 months.

例如，2016年唐纳德·特朗普首次获胜时，美元指数一直上涨到11月23日，然后小幅下跌，直到12月5日。但随后从12月8日到12月20日再次上涨，然后停止，并开始下跌1月份，持续了12个月。

On the other hand, it is not at all impossible that from now until December 20, the price of Bitcoin will rise, perhaps even beyond that mythical $100,000 so eagerly awaited by the bull and bear community of bitcoiner.

另一方面，从现在到 12 月 20 日，比特币的价格上涨，甚至可能超越比特币牛市和熊市社区热切期待的神话般的 10 万美元，也并非不可能。

The evolution in the medium/long term

中长期演变

However, if the Dollar Index were to actually start to decline between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the inverse correlation with the trend of Bitcoin’s value could be reestablished.

然而，如果美元指数在 2024 年底至 2025 年初之间真正开始下跌，则可能会重新建立与比特币价值趋势的负相关关系。

In 2016/2017, for example, the 12 months of decline in the Dollar Index corresponded almost exactly to the second major bullrun of the BTC price, which went from less than $1,000 to almost $20,000 in less than 12 months.

例如，2016/2017 年，美元指数连续 12 个月的下跌几乎恰好对应了 BTC 价格的第二次大牛市，在不到 12 个月的时间里，比特币价格从不到 1,000 美元涨至近 20,000 美元。

It should also be added that both after Trump’s first election in 2016 and after Joe Biden’s in 2020, the Dollar Index ended up falling around 90 points, after being above 103 points in both cases the previous year.

还应该补充的是，在特朗普2016年首次当选和2020年乔·拜登当选后，美元指数最终下跌了90点左右，而前一年两次都超过了103点。

In this 2024 it has pushed beyond 107 points, and if it were to drop for practically twelve consecutive months down to the usual 90 points, it could help Bitcoin rise quite a bit.

2024 年，比特币价格已突破 107 点，如果连续 12 个月下跌至通常的 90 点，可能会帮助比特币大幅上涨。

The record

记录

To all this must be added that in November 2024 the value of Bitcoin recorded the all-time high regarding the monthly price increase in absolute terms (+$26,0

除此之外，必须补充一点的是，2024 年 11 月，比特币的价值创下了每月绝对价格涨幅的历史新高（+26.0 美元）。