長期比特幣（BTC）持有人正在實現利潤，但也提高了其供應優勢

比特幣的市場正在進入一個罕見的階段，長期持有人正在獲利，但總長期持股仍在上升。

Key Takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Long-term Bitcoin holders are realizing profits to a large degree, with daily realized profit peaks at $930 million.

長期比特幣持有人正在大部分實現利潤，每天實現的利潤達到9.3億美元。

BTC volatility drops to its 10th percentile, reaching the lowest levels in over a decade.

BTC的波動率下降到其第十個百分點，在十年中達到了最低水平。

Glassnode highlights a “unique duality” in this cycle’s market behavior with two trends converging.

GlassNode突出了該週期市場行為中的“獨特二元性”，兩種趨勢融合了。

Bitcoin price consolidates at $108,700, remaining below its $111,800 all-time high.

比特幣價格為108,700美元，其歷史最高水平低於其111,800美元。

Bitcoin’s market is entering a new phase. Long-term holders are taking profits to a large degree, yet their overall share of the total supply is still increasing. This finding is unique, especially during the late stages of a bull market. Usually, when a bull market peaks, people begin booking profits, leading to a decrease in the portion of the coins held by long-term holders.

比特幣的市場正在進入一個新階段。長期持有人在很大程度上獲得利潤，但他們在總供應方面的總份額仍在增加。這一發現是獨一無二的，尤其是在牛市晚期。通常，當牛市達到頂峰時，人們開始預訂利潤，從而導致長期持有人持有的硬幣的減少。

In another surprising finding, onchain analytics firm Glassnode discovered that light-term holder supply has decreased to its lowest point since 2021.

在另一個令人驚訝的發現中，OnChain Analytics公司GlassNode發現，自2021年以來，光期持有人的供應已下降到其最低點。

This trend is becoming more apparent as, despite significant profit-taking by long-term holders, their holdings have surged to new highs. In the past seven months alone, the portion of the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has risen by 18%.

這種趨勢變得越來越明顯，儘管長期持有人的巨額利潤，但他們的持股卻飆升至新高。僅在過去的七個月中，長期持有人持有的比特幣供應部分就增長了18％。

The stellar performance of Bitcoin in 2023 is no secret. But the latest data from Ecoinometrics shows just how low the cryptocurrency’s volatility has become in recent times.

比特幣在2023年的出色表現不是秘密的。但是，來自生態學測量法的最新數據表明，最近的加密貨幣波動率已有多低。

According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s weekly volatility is now in the 10th percentile, which means that 90% of the time over the past 10 years, the cryptocurrency has been more volatile.

根據分析，比特幣的每週波動率現在處於第十個百分位數，這意味著在過去的10年中，90％的時間佔90％，加密貨幣的波動性更大。

If we look at the chart, we can see that Bitcoin’s volatility is at its lowest point since the 2011–2012 bear market.

如果我們查看圖表，我們可以看到比特幣的波動率是自2011 - 2012年熊市以來的最低點。

The analysis adds that the realized volume density is now very high, which indicates that a large portion of the recent buying activity occurred within a narrow price range—$105,000 to $110,000.

分析補充說，已實現的數量密度現在很高，這表明最近的購買活動的很大一部分發生在狹窄的價格範圍內，105,000美元至110,000美元。

This could increase the risk of a sudden and large price movement if there is a shift in market sentiment.

如果市場情緒發生變化，這可能會增加出價突然和大型價格轉移的風險。

Moreover, the implied volatility across Bitcoin options markets continues to decline, which signals that traders are not expecting to see any major price swings in the coming weeks and months.

此外，比特幣期權市場的隱含波動率不斷下降，這表明交易者並不期望在未來幾周和幾個月內看到任何主要的價格波動。

Institutions are known to prefer investing in assets that offer a high risk-adjusted return, and they are also capable of handling large positions.

眾所周知，機構更喜歡投資於提供高風險調整回報的資產，並且他們也能夠處理大型職位。

Bitcoin appears to be caught in a lurch between institutional demand, which is pushing the coin to higher levels, and the profit-taking activity, which is keeping the coin from advancing further.

比特幣似乎陷入了機構需求之間的陷入困境，機構需求將硬幣推向更高的水平和獲利活動，這使硬幣無法進一步前進。

As the stellar bull market continues, it seems that institutions are ramping up their activity, while a large portion of the selling activity is coming from long-term holders, who are cashing out some of their gains.

隨著恆星牛市的繼續，似乎機構正在加大活動，而大部分銷售活動則來自長期持有人，他們正在兌現一些收益。

But with realized volatility at a decade low and long-term supply behavior showing signs of deeper accumulation, the market could be setting the stage for a breakout.

但是，隨著十年來低和長期供應行為的實現波動，表明了更深層次的積累跡象，市場可能為突破奠定了基礎。

However, if sentiment sours, then a swift drop could follow, especially given the high recent volume density, which signals that a large portion of the buying activity occurred in a narrow price band.

但是，如果情緒酸酸，那麼可能會迅速下降，特別是考慮到最近的近期量密度，這表明大部分購買活動發生在狹窄的價格帶中。