长期比特币（BTC）持有人正在实现利润，但也提高了其供应优势

比特币的市场正在进入一个罕见的阶段，长期持有人正在获利，但总长期持股仍在上升。

Key Takeaways:

关键要点：

Long-term Bitcoin holders are realizing profits to a large degree, with daily realized profit peaks at $930 million.

长期比特币持有人正在大部分实现利润，每天实现的利润达到9.3亿美元。

BTC volatility drops to its 10th percentile, reaching the lowest levels in over a decade.

BTC的波动率下降到其第十个百分点，在十年中达到了最低水平。

Glassnode highlights a “unique duality” in this cycle’s market behavior with two trends converging.

GlassNode突出了该周期市场行为中的“独特二元性”，两种趋势融合了。

Bitcoin price consolidates at $108,700, remaining below its $111,800 all-time high.

比特币价格为108,700美元，其历史最高水平低于其111,800美元。

Bitcoin’s market is entering a new phase. Long-term holders are taking profits to a large degree, yet their overall share of the total supply is still increasing. This finding is unique, especially during the late stages of a bull market. Usually, when a bull market peaks, people begin booking profits, leading to a decrease in the portion of the coins held by long-term holders.

比特币的市场正在进入一个新阶段。长期持有人在很大程度上获得利润，但他们在总供应方面的总份额仍在增加。这一发现是独一无二的，尤其是在牛市晚期。通常，当牛市达到顶峰时，人们开始预订利润，从而导致长期持有人持有的硬币的减少。

In another surprising finding, onchain analytics firm Glassnode discovered that light-term holder supply has decreased to its lowest point since 2021.

在另一个令人惊讶的发现中，OnChain Analytics公司GlassNode发现，自2021年以来，光期持有人的供应已下降到其最低点。

This trend is becoming more apparent as, despite significant profit-taking by long-term holders, their holdings have surged to new highs. In the past seven months alone, the portion of the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has risen by 18%.

这种趋势变得越来越明显，尽管长期持有人的巨额利润，但他们的持股却飙升至新高。仅在过去的七个月中，长期持有人持有的比特币供应部分就增长了18％。

The stellar performance of Bitcoin in 2023 is no secret. But the latest data from Ecoinometrics shows just how low the cryptocurrency’s volatility has become in recent times.

比特币在2023年的出色表现不是秘密的。但是，来自生态学测量法的最新数据表明，最近的加密货币波动率已有多低。

According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s weekly volatility is now in the 10th percentile, which means that 90% of the time over the past 10 years, the cryptocurrency has been more volatile.

根据分析，比特币的每周波动率现在处于第十个百分位数，这意味着在过去的10年中，90％的时间占90％，加密货币的波动性更大。

If we look at the chart, we can see that Bitcoin’s volatility is at its lowest point since the 2011–2012 bear market.

如果我们查看图表，我们可以看到比特币的波动率是自2011 - 2012年熊市以来的最低点。

The analysis adds that the realized volume density is now very high, which indicates that a large portion of the recent buying activity occurred within a narrow price range—$105,000 to $110,000.

分析补充说，已实现的数量密度现在很高，这表明最近的购买活动的很大一部分发生在狭窄的价格范围内，105,000美元至110,000美元。

This could increase the risk of a sudden and large price movement if there is a shift in market sentiment.

如果市场情绪发生变化，这可能会增加出价突然和大型价格转移的风险。

Moreover, the implied volatility across Bitcoin options markets continues to decline, which signals that traders are not expecting to see any major price swings in the coming weeks and months.

此外，比特币期权市场的隐含波动率不断下降，这表明交易者并不期望在未来几周和几个月内看到任何主要的价格波动。

Institutions are known to prefer investing in assets that offer a high risk-adjusted return, and they are also capable of handling large positions.

众所周知，机构更喜欢投资于提供高风险调整回报的资产，并且他们也能够处理大型职位。

Bitcoin appears to be caught in a lurch between institutional demand, which is pushing the coin to higher levels, and the profit-taking activity, which is keeping the coin from advancing further.

比特币似乎陷入了机构需求之间的陷入困境，机构需求将硬币推向更高的水平和获利活动，这使硬币无法进一步前进。

As the stellar bull market continues, it seems that institutions are ramping up their activity, while a large portion of the selling activity is coming from long-term holders, who are cashing out some of their gains.

随着恒星牛市的继续，似乎机构正在加大活动，而大部分销售活动则来自长期持有人，他们正在兑现一些收益。

But with realized volatility at a decade low and long-term supply behavior showing signs of deeper accumulation, the market could be setting the stage for a breakout.

但是，随着十年来低和长期供应行为的实现波动，表明了更深层次的积累迹象，市场可能为突破奠定了基础。

However, if sentiment sours, then a swift drop could follow, especially given the high recent volume density, which signals that a large portion of the buying activity occurred in a narrow price band.

但是，如果情绪酸酸，那么可能会迅速下降，特别是考虑到最近的近期量密度，这表明大部分购买活动发生在狭窄的价格带中。