加密貨幣開發中的沉沒成本最大化：永無止境的轉型？

探索加密貨幣開發中的“沉沒成本謬誤”和“最大化”，揭示短產品週期和持續的樞軸如何影響長期增長和投資策略。

Sunk Cost Maxxing in Crypto Development: A Never-Ending Pivot?

加密貨幣開發中的沉沒成本最大化：永無止境的轉型？

In the fast-paced world of crypto, are projects building for the long haul or just chasing the next shiny object? The concept of 'sunk cost maxxing' is flipping traditional business advice on its head. Instead of pivoting away from failing ventures, are crypto projects doubling down, constantly seeking new narratives to stay afloat? Let's dive in.

在快節奏的加密世界中，項目是為了長期發展還是只是為了追逐下一個閃亮的對象？ “沉沒成本最大化”的概念正在徹底顛覆傳統的商業建議。加密貨幣項目是否沒有放棄失敗的企業，而是加倍努力，不斷尋找新的敘事來維持生存？讓我們深入了解一下。

The 18-Month Product Cycle

18 個月的產品週期

Rosie Sargsian, Head of Growth at Ten Protocol, recently highlighted a troubling trend: the "18-Month Product Cycle" in crypto. It goes like this: a new narrative emerges, funding floods in, everyone pivots, and then… interest dies. Founders scramble for the next big thing. This frantic pace, a stark contrast to the multi-year timelines needed for real infrastructure and product-market fit, raises serious questions about long-term viability.

Ten Protocol 增長主管 Rosie Sargsian 最近強調了一個令人不安的趨勢：加密貨幣領域的“18 個月產品週期”。事情是這樣的：一種新的敘述出現，資金湧入，每個人都轉向，然後……興趣消失了。創始人們都在爭奪下一件大事。這種瘋狂的步伐與真正的基礎設施和產品市場契合所需的多年時間表形成鮮明對比，引發了關於長期可行性的嚴重問題。

This cycle used to be longer, stretching to 3-4 years during the ICO boom, then shrinking to 2 years. Now, if you're lucky, you get 18 months. Crypto venture funding took a nosedive, squeezing the time and resources available to founders before the next trend forces yet another pivot.

這個週期過去較長，在 ICO 熱潮期間延長至 3-4 年，然後縮短至 2 年。現在，如果你幸運的話，你還有 18 個月的時間。加密貨幣風險投資急劇下降，在下一個趨勢迫使另一輪轉向之前擠壓了創始人可用的時間和資源。

Are Founders Playing the Game Wrong?

創始人玩錯了遊戲嗎？

Sargsian doesn't necessarily blame the founders. They're just "playing the game correctly." But is the game itself flawed? Can anything meaningful be built in such a short timeframe? Real infrastructure demands at least 3-5 years, and achieving genuine product-market fit requires years of iteration, not just a few quarters.

薩爾基安並不一定要責怪創始人。他們只是“正確地玩遊戲”。但遊戲本身有缺陷嗎？能在這麼短的時間內建造出任何有意義的東西嗎？真正的基礎設施至少需要3-5年的時間，而實現真正的產品與市場契合需要數年的迭代，而不僅僅是幾個季度。

The Long-Term Hurdles

長期障礙

One major challenge is incentivizing users to stick around after the initial hype fades. Token launches and airdrops can generate buzz, but without a solid long-term strategy, early investors often dump their tokens as soon as they can, abandoning the platform.

一個主要挑戰是在最初的炒作消退後激勵用戶留下來。代幣發行和空投可能會引起轟動，但如果沒有堅實的長期戰略，早期投資者往往會盡快拋售代幣，放棄平台。

Development Activity as a Beacon

發展活動作為燈塔

While narratives come and go, development activity remains a crucial indicator of a project's potential. Projects like MetaMask, Chainlink, and Dfinity consistently demonstrate strong development, suggesting a focus on long-term growth and innovation. Keeping an eye on development metrics can help traders spot undervalued assets and identify projects with staying power.

儘管故事來來去去，開發活動仍然是項目潛力的關鍵指標。 MetaMask、Chainlink 和 Dfinity 等項目始終表現出強勁的發展勢頭，表明對長期增長和創新的關注。關注開髮指標可以幫助交易者發現被低估的資產並識別具有持久力的項目。

A Contrarian Viewpoint: Is Sunk Cost Maxxing Always Bad?

逆向觀點：沉沒成本最大化總是不好嗎？

While the 18-month product cycle and constant pivoting can be concerning, could there be a case for 'sunk cost maxxing'? In a rapidly evolving space, sometimes sticking with a project through thick and thin can lead to unexpected breakthroughs. Think of projects that initially struggled but eventually found their niche through persistence and adaptation. The key is to differentiate between blindly throwing good money after bad and strategically doubling down on a promising project that needs time to mature.

雖然 18 個月的產品週期和不斷的調整可能令人擔憂，但是否存在“最大沉沒成本”的情況？在快速發展的領域，有時，無論困難與否，堅持一個項目可能會帶來意想不到的突破。想想那些最初舉步維艱但最終通過堅持和適應找到自己定位的項目。關鍵是要區分盲目地投入大量資金和戰略性地加倍投資於一個需要時間成熟的有前景的項目。

However, remember that projects with high development activity and strong fundamentals are generally safer bets. Look for consistent progress, active communities, and real-world use cases.

然而，請記住，具有高開發活動和強大基礎的項目通常是更安全的選擇。尋找持續的進展、活躍的社區和現實世界的用例。

The Bottom Line

底線

The crypto world is a wild ride, and the pressure to chase trends can be intense. While 'sunk cost maxxing' might seem like a viable strategy in the short term, it's crucial to focus on projects with solid foundations, consistent development, and a clear vision for the future. So, next time you're tempted to jump on the latest hype train, take a step back and ask yourself: is this a project built to last, or just another flash in the pan? Because in the long run, slow and steady wins the race—even in crypto.

加密世界是一場瘋狂的旅程，追逐趨勢的壓力可能會很大。雖然“沉沒成本最大化”在短期內似乎是一個可行的策略，但重點關注具有堅實基礎、持續發展和對未來有清晰願景的項目至關重要。所以，下次當你想跳上最新的炒作列車時，退一步問問自己：這是一個持久的項目，還是只是曇花一現？因為從長遠來看，緩慢而穩定的方式才能贏得比賽——即使在加密貨幣領域也是如此。

Now, go forth and build (or at least invest in projects that are actually building something!). And remember, don't let those sunk costs sink your portfolio!

現在，繼續構建（或者至少投資於實際正在構建的項目！）。請記住，不要讓這些沉沒成本毀掉您的投資組合！