加密货币开发中的沉没成本最大化：永无止境的转型？

探索加密货币开发中的“沉没成本谬误”和“最大化”，揭示短产品周期和持续的枢轴如何影响长期增长和投资策略。

Sunk Cost Maxxing in Crypto Development: A Never-Ending Pivot?

加密货币开发中的沉没成本最大化：永无止境的转型？

In the fast-paced world of crypto, are projects building for the long haul or just chasing the next shiny object? The concept of 'sunk cost maxxing' is flipping traditional business advice on its head. Instead of pivoting away from failing ventures, are crypto projects doubling down, constantly seeking new narratives to stay afloat? Let's dive in.

在快节奏的加密世界中，项目是为了长期发展还是只是为了追逐下一个闪亮的对象？ “沉没成本最大化”的概念正在彻底颠覆传统的商业建议。加密货币项目是否没有放弃失败的企业，而是加倍努力，不断寻找新的叙事来维持生存？让我们深入了解一下。

The 18-Month Product Cycle

18 个月的产品周期

Rosie Sargsian, Head of Growth at Ten Protocol, recently highlighted a troubling trend: the "18-Month Product Cycle" in crypto. It goes like this: a new narrative emerges, funding floods in, everyone pivots, and then… interest dies. Founders scramble for the next big thing. This frantic pace, a stark contrast to the multi-year timelines needed for real infrastructure and product-market fit, raises serious questions about long-term viability.

Ten Protocol 增长主管 Rosie Sargsian 最近强调了一个令人不安的趋势：加密货币领域的“18 个月产品周期”。事情是这样的：一种新的叙述出现，资金涌入，每个人都转向，然后……兴趣消失了。创始人们都在争夺下一件大事。这种疯狂的步伐与真正的基础设施和产品市场契合所需的多年时间表形成鲜明对比，引发了关于长期可行性的严重问题。

This cycle used to be longer, stretching to 3-4 years during the ICO boom, then shrinking to 2 years. Now, if you're lucky, you get 18 months. Crypto venture funding took a nosedive, squeezing the time and resources available to founders before the next trend forces yet another pivot.

这个周期过去较长，在 ICO 热潮期间延长至 3-4 年，然后缩短至 2 年。现在，如果你幸运的话，你还有 18 个月的时间。加密货币风险投资急剧下降，在下一个趋势迫使另一轮转向之前挤压了创始人可用的时间和资源。

Are Founders Playing the Game Wrong?

创始人玩错了游戏吗？

Sargsian doesn't necessarily blame the founders. They're just "playing the game correctly." But is the game itself flawed? Can anything meaningful be built in such a short timeframe? Real infrastructure demands at least 3-5 years, and achieving genuine product-market fit requires years of iteration, not just a few quarters.

萨尔基安并不一定要责怪创始人。他们只是“正确地玩游戏”。但游戏本身有缺陷吗？能在这么短的时间内建造出任何有意义的东西吗？真正的基础设施至少需要3-5年的时间，而实现真正的产品与市场契合需要数年的迭代，而不仅仅是几个季度。

The Long-Term Hurdles

长期障碍

One major challenge is incentivizing users to stick around after the initial hype fades. Token launches and airdrops can generate buzz, but without a solid long-term strategy, early investors often dump their tokens as soon as they can, abandoning the platform.

一个主要挑战是在最初的炒作消退后激励用户留下来。代币发行和空投可能会引起轰动，但如果没有坚实的长期战略，早期投资者往往会尽快抛售代币，放弃平台。

Development Activity as a Beacon

发展活动作为灯塔

While narratives come and go, development activity remains a crucial indicator of a project's potential. Projects like MetaMask, Chainlink, and Dfinity consistently demonstrate strong development, suggesting a focus on long-term growth and innovation. Keeping an eye on development metrics can help traders spot undervalued assets and identify projects with staying power.

尽管故事来来去去，开发活动仍然是项目潜力的关键指标。 MetaMask、Chainlink 和 Dfinity 等项目始终表现出强劲的发展势头，表明对长期增长和创新的关注。关注开发指标可以帮助交易者发现被低估的资产并识别具有持久力的项目。

A Contrarian Viewpoint: Is Sunk Cost Maxxing Always Bad?

逆向观点：沉没成本最大化总是不好吗？

While the 18-month product cycle and constant pivoting can be concerning, could there be a case for 'sunk cost maxxing'? In a rapidly evolving space, sometimes sticking with a project through thick and thin can lead to unexpected breakthroughs. Think of projects that initially struggled but eventually found their niche through persistence and adaptation. The key is to differentiate between blindly throwing good money after bad and strategically doubling down on a promising project that needs time to mature.

虽然 18 个月的产品周期和不断的调整可能令人担忧，但是否存在“最大沉没成本”的情况？在快速发展的领域，有时，无论困难与否，坚持一个项目可能会带来意想不到的突破。想想那些最初举步维艰但最终通过坚持和适应找到自己定位的项目。关键是要区分盲目地投入大量资金和战略性地加倍投资于一个需要时间成熟的有前景的项目。

However, remember that projects with high development activity and strong fundamentals are generally safer bets. Look for consistent progress, active communities, and real-world use cases.

然而，请记住，具有高开发活动和强大基础的项目通常是更安全的选择。寻找持续的进展、活跃的社区和现实世界的用例。

The Bottom Line

底线

The crypto world is a wild ride, and the pressure to chase trends can be intense. While 'sunk cost maxxing' might seem like a viable strategy in the short term, it's crucial to focus on projects with solid foundations, consistent development, and a clear vision for the future. So, next time you're tempted to jump on the latest hype train, take a step back and ask yourself: is this a project built to last, or just another flash in the pan? Because in the long run, slow and steady wins the race—even in crypto.

加密世界是一场疯狂的旅程，追逐趋势的压力可能会很大。虽然“沉没成本最大化”在短期内似乎是一个可行的策略，但重点关注具有坚实基础、持续发展和对未来有清晰愿景的项目至关重要。所以，下次当你想跳上最新的炒作列车时，退一步问问自己：这是一个持久的项目，还是只是昙花一现？因为从长远来看，缓慢而稳定的方式才能赢得比赛——即使在加密货币领域也是如此。

Now, go forth and build (or at least invest in projects that are actually building something!). And remember, don't let those sunk costs sink your portfolio!

现在，继续构建（或者至少投资于实际正在构建的项目！）。请记住，不要让这些沉没成本毁掉您的投资组合！