渣打銀行表示，共和黨的大獲全勝將使比特幣在年底前上漲至 12.5 萬美元。

英國銀行表示，如果共和黨贏得參議院、眾議院和白宮，數位資產產業將會更容易

Standard Chartered has predicted that a Republican sweep in the upcoming US elections will propel Bitcoin to an astronomical $125,000 by the year’s end.

渣打銀行預測，共和黨在即將到來的美國大選中大獲全勝，將推動比特幣在年底前達到 12.5 萬美元的天文數字。

The British bank said that if the GOP manages to secure the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the White House, the digital asset industry will have an easier time passing new laws favorable to the crypto space.

這家英國銀行表示，如果共和黨能夠贏得參議院、眾議院和白宮的席位，數位資產產業將更容易通過有利於加密貨幣領域的新法律。

But what if Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the next president?

但如果副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯成為下一任總統怎麼辦？

“In a Harris scenario, we still think BTC can end the year at around $75,000,” Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, wrote in a note on Friday.

渣打銀行數位資產研究主管傑夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 在周五的一份報告中寫道：“在哈里斯情景中，我們仍然認為 BTC 年底價格可能會達到 75,000 美元左右。”

Bitcoin to the moon no matter what?

無論如何，比特幣都能登上月球？

Either way, it doesn’t matter how the US elections pan out on November 5, say analysts—Bitcoin is headed for the moon. Now, it’s only a question of how high.

分析師表示，無論如何，無論 11 月 5 日美國大選結果如何，比特幣都將走向月球。現在，只是多高的問題。

That’s because both Trump and Harris have made pro-crypto overtures ahead of the vote.

這是因為川普和哈里斯在投票前都提出了支持加密貨幣的提議。

Trump trade

川普貿易

The former president’s full-throated advocacy has, however, made him a favorite in some crypto circles. Supporters such as Messari’s Ryan Selkis have argued that crypto’s future hinges on Trump’s ability to reclaim the White House.

然而，這位前總統的大力倡導使他成為一些加密貨幣圈的最愛。 Messari 的 Ryan Selkis 等支持者認為，加密貨幣的未來取決於川普奪回白宮的能力。

This has given rise to the so-called “Trump trade,” the idea that Bitcoin will soar if the real estate tycoon wins.

這引發了所謂的“川普交易”，即如果房地產大亨獲勝，比特幣就會飆升。

In September, Bernstein analysts predicted that Bitcoin’s price would surge to $90,000 this year if that happens, but it would fall as low as $30,000 if Harris were elected. They have since changed their tune and predict it will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

今年 9 月，伯恩斯坦分析師預測，如果這種情況發生，今年比特幣的價格將飆升至 9 萬美元，但如果哈里斯當選，比特幣價格將跌至 3 萬美元。此後他們改變了態度，預計到 2025 年底將達到 20 萬美元。

Similarly, a Kaiko analysis of Bitcoin options data suggests that traders already bet the cryptocurrency will hit a new all-time high no matter who wins the election.

同樣，Kaiko 對比特幣選擇權數據的分析表明，交易員已經押注無論誰贏得選舉，加密貨幣都將創下歷史新高。

A ‘scam’

一個“騙局”

After calling Bitcoin a “scam” in 2021, Trump flipped the script in May and campaigns as a pro-crypto candidate. His sons have even launched a DeFi project called World Liberty Financial.

在 2021 年稱比特幣為「騙局」後，川普在 5 月翻轉劇本，以支持加密貨幣的候選人身份進行競選。他的兒子們甚至推出了一個名為 World Liberty Financial 的 DeFi 計畫。

Harris, though initially quiet on the matter, said in September that her administration will boost America’s competitiveness and partner with companies to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.”

哈里斯雖然最初對此事保持沉默，但在 9 月表示，她的政府將提高美國的競爭力，並與企業合作「鼓勵人工智慧和數位資產等創新技術」。

Standard Chartered’s note also says that Harris would be less negative for crypto than another Biden term. That’s because Biden vetoed a bill that would have allowed traditional banks to custody cryptocurrencies.

渣打銀行的報告也表示，哈里斯對加密貨幣的負面影響將小於拜登的另一個任期。這是因為拜登否決了一項允許傳統銀行託管加密貨幣的法案。

“With digital assets having become a more prominent political issue since then, we doubt whether a Harris administration would seek the same veto,” wrote Kendrick.

肯德里克寫道：“自那時以來，數位資產已成為一個更加突出的政治問題，我們懷疑哈里斯政府是否會尋求同樣的否決權。”

“Bitcoin would head higher after an initial dip, once the market recognises that regulatory change is still likely under Harris, even if at a slower pace.”

“一旦市場認識到哈里斯領導下的監管變革仍有可能發生，即使步伐較慢，比特幣在最初的下跌後將會走高。”