如何使用 Polymarket：去中心化預測市場指南

Polymarket 是一個去中心化的預測市場，用戶可以對各種結果進行押注，從選舉結果到運動、流行文化、加密貨幣價格走勢甚至科學突破。

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can bet on a variety of outcomes, ranging from election results to sports, pop culture, cryptocurrency price movements and even scientific breakthroughs. In this article, we will explain how Polymarket works and show you how to make bets on the platform. Although it doesn’t hurt to have some experience with crypto, it’s relatively easy to get started with Polymarket even if you’ve never used cryptocurrency or dont own any crypto coins.

Polymarket 是一個去中心化的預測市場，用戶可以對各種結果進行押注，從選舉結果到運動、流行文化、加密貨幣價格走勢甚至科學突破。在本文中，我們將解釋 Polymarket 的運作方式並向您展示如何在該平台上投注。雖然擁有一些加密貨幣經驗並沒有壞處，但即使您從未使用過加密貨幣或不擁有任何加密貨幣，開始使用 Polymarket 也相對容易。

Here is a step-by-step guide on how to use Polymarket:

以下是有關如何使用 Polymarket 的分步指南：

If you want to start using Polymarket, you will need two things. A wallet that is compatible with the Polygon blockchain network (we recommend the MetaMask wallet) and some USDC tokens. USDC is a stablecoin that tracks the value of the US dollar. Therefore, you won’t need to worry about the wild price fluctuations that are common in the cryptocurrency market.

如果您想開始使用 Polymarket，您需要做兩件事。與Polygon區塊鏈網路相容的錢包（我們推薦MetaMask錢包）和一些USDC代幣。 USDC 是一種追蹤美元價值的穩定幣。因此，您無需擔心加密貨幣市場中常見的劇烈價格波動。

You can install MetaMask either as a web browser extension or as a mobile app. For using Polymarket, we recommend using the MetaMask web browser extension, as Polymarket currently doesn’t offer a mobile app.

您可以將 MetaMask 安裝為網頁瀏覽器擴充功能或行動應用程式。對於使用 Polymarket，我們建議使用 MetaMask Web 瀏覽器擴展，因為 Polymarket 目前不提供行動應用程式。

If you plan to have a substantial amount of funds in your crypto wallets, we strongly recommend you use a hardware wallet alongside MetaMask to significantly improve the security of your funds. Check out our list of the best hardware wallets to use with MetaMask if you want to learn more.

如果您打算在加密錢包中存放大量資金，我們強烈建議您使用硬體錢包和 MetaMask 來顯著提高資金的安全性。如果您想了解更多信息，請查看我們與 MetaMask 配合使用的最佳硬體錢包列表。

Once your wallet is set up, you will be able to connect to Polymarket by clicking “Sign Up†on the top right of the Polymarket website. Then, select the MetaMask option and approve the sign-in request in your wallet.

設定錢包後，您將能夠透過點擊 Polymarket 網站右上角的「註冊」來連接到 Polymarket。然後，選擇 MetaMask 選項並批准錢包中的登入請求。

Then, click the “Deposit†button. The site will present an address which you can use to fund your Polymarket account. The address will be a long string of numbers and letters starting with “0x†.

然後，點擊“存款”按鈕。該網站將提供一個地址，您可以使用該地址為您的 Polymarket 帳戶注資。該地址將是一長串以“0x”開頭的數字和字母。

If you have USDC tokens on a cryptocurrency exchange such as Coinbase, Binance or Robinhood, you can withdraw them to this address. Make sure that you’re withdrawing USDC on the Polygon network. Otherwise, you could lose your money.

如果您在 Coinbase、Binance 或 Robinhood 等加密貨幣交易所擁有 USDC 代幣，則可以將其提取到該地址。確保您在 Polygon 網路上提取 USDC。否則，您可能會損失金錢。

Alternatively, you can buy USDC directly through the Polymarket interface. Polymarket currently has an integration with Moonpay, a company that simplifies the process of purchasing cryptocurrency. This is a convenient way of adding USDC to your Polymarket account, but the purchase fee will be significantly higher than buying USDC on an exchange.

或者，您可以直接透過 Polymarket 介面購買 USDC。 Polymarket 目前與 Moonpay 進行了整合，該公司簡化了購買加密貨幣的流程。這是將 USDC 添加到 Polymarket 帳戶的便捷方式，但購買費用將明顯高於在交易所購買 USDC。

Now that you have some USDC in your Polymarket account, you can start making bets on the platform. To do this, simply browse through the available markets and click on the one that you want to bet on.

現在您的 Polymarket 帳戶中有一些 USDC，您可以開始在該平台上進行投注。為此，只需瀏覽可用市場並點擊您想要下注的市場即可。

On the market page, you will see a list of all the possible outcomes for the event that the market is describing. For each outcome, there will be two prices, one for the “Yes†option and one for the “No†option.

在市場頁面上，您將看到市場描述的事件的所有可能結果的清單。對於每種結果，都會有兩種價格，一種用於“是”選項，一種用於“否”選項。

The “Yes†price represents the price at which you can buy shares that will pay out $1 if the “Yes†outcome occurs. The “No†price represents the price at which you can buy shares that will pay out $1 if the “No†outcome occurs.

「是」價格代表您可以購買股票的價格，如果出現「是」結果，您將支付 1 美元。 「否」價格代表您可以購買股票的價格，如果出現「否」結果，您將支付 1 美元。

For example, in the screenshot below, we can see that the “Yes†price for the outcome “Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election†is currently $0.458, while the “No†price is $0.538. This means that the market is currently giving Kamala Harris a 45.8% chance of winning the election.

例如，在下面的螢幕截圖中，我們可以看到結果「卡馬拉·哈里斯將贏得 2024 年美國總統大選」的「是」價格目前為 0.458 美元，而「否」價格為 0.538 美元。這意味著市場目前給予卡馬拉·哈里斯贏得選舉的機會為45.8%。

To make a bet on an outcome, simply enter the amount of USDC that you want to bet in the field next to the outcome and then click the “Buy Yes Shares†or “Buy No Shares†button.

要對結果下注，只需在結果旁邊的欄位中輸入您想要下注的 USDC 金額，然後點擊「購買是股票」或「不購買股票」按鈕。

You will then be asked to confirm the transaction in your MetaMask wallet. Once you have confirmed the transaction, your bet will be placed.

然後，系統會要求您在 MetaMask 錢包中確認交易。一旦您確認交易，您的賭注就會下注。

If the outcome that you bet on occurs, you will be able to redeem your shares for $1 each. If the outcome that you bet on does not occur, your shares will become worthless.

如果您所投注的結果發生，您將能夠以每股 1 美元的價格贖回您的股票。如果您所押注的結果沒有發生，您的股票將變得一文不值。

It’s important to note that on Polymarket, you are not locked into a bet after you make it. The platform allows users to trade the shares that they own before the event described by the market actually transpires.

值得注意的是，在 Polymarket 上，您下注後並不會被鎖定。該平台允許用戶在市場描述的事件實際發生之前交易他們擁有的股票。

For example, let’s say that we purchased “Yes†shares for Kamala Harris when her odds were at 45.8%. If her odds increased after we made our bet, we could decide to sell our shares for a higher price and lock in profits

例如，假設我們在卡瑪拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的勝算為 45.8% 時購買了「是」股票。如果我們下注後她的賠率增加，我們可以決定以更高的價格出售我們的股票並鎖定利潤