如何使用 Polymarket：去中心化预测市场指南

Polymarket 是一个去中心化的预测市场，用户可以对各种结果进行押注，从选举结果到体育、流行文化、加密货币价格走势甚至科学突破。

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can bet on a variety of outcomes, ranging from election results to sports, pop culture, cryptocurrency price movements and even scientific breakthroughs. In this article, we will explain how Polymarket works and show you how to make bets on the platform. Although it doesn’t hurt to have some experience with crypto, it’s relatively easy to get started with Polymarket even if you’ve never used cryptocurrency or dont own any crypto coins.

Polymarket 是一个去中心化的预测市场，用户可以对各种结果进行押注，从选举结果到体育、流行文化、加密货币价格走势甚至科学突破。在本文中，我们将解释 Polymarket 的运作方式并向您展示如何在该平台上进行投注。虽然拥有一些加密货币经验并没有坏处，但即使您从未使用过加密货币或不拥有任何加密货币，开始使用 Polymarket 也相对容易。

Here is a step-by-step guide on how to use Polymarket:

以下是有关如何使用 Polymarket 的分步指南：

If you want to start using Polymarket, you will need two things. A wallet that is compatible with the Polygon blockchain network (we recommend the MetaMask wallet) and some USDC tokens. USDC is a stablecoin that tracks the value of the US dollar. Therefore, you won’t need to worry about the wild price fluctuations that are common in the cryptocurrency market.

如果您想开始使用 Polymarket，您需要做两件事。与Polygon区块链网络兼容的钱包（我们推荐MetaMask钱包）和一些USDC代币。 USDC 是一种追踪美元价值的稳定币。因此，您无需担心加密货币市场中常见的剧烈价格波动。

You can install MetaMask either as a web browser extension or as a mobile app. For using Polymarket, we recommend using the MetaMask web browser extension, as Polymarket currently doesn’t offer a mobile app.

您可以将 MetaMask 安装为网络浏览器扩展或移动应用程序。对于使用 Polymarket，我们建议使用 MetaMask Web 浏览器扩展，因为 Polymarket 目前不提供移动应用程序。

If you plan to have a substantial amount of funds in your crypto wallets, we strongly recommend you use a hardware wallet alongside MetaMask to significantly improve the security of your funds. Check out our list of the best hardware wallets to use with MetaMask if you want to learn more.

如果您计划在加密钱包中存放大量资金，我们强烈建议您使用硬件钱包和 MetaMask 来显着提高资金的安全性。如果您想了解更多信息，请查看我们与 MetaMask 配合使用的最佳硬件钱包列表。

Once your wallet is set up, you will be able to connect to Polymarket by clicking “Sign Up†on the top right of the Polymarket website. Then, select the MetaMask option and approve the sign-in request in your wallet.

设置钱包后，您将能够通过单击 Polymarket 网站右上角的“注册”来连接到 Polymarket。然后，选择 MetaMask 选项并批准钱包中的登录请求。

Then, click the “Deposit†button. The site will present an address which you can use to fund your Polymarket account. The address will be a long string of numbers and letters starting with “0x†.

然后，单击“存款”按钮。该网站将提供一个地址，您可以使用该地址为您的 Polymarket 帐户注资。该地址将是一长串以“0x”开头的数字和字母。

If you have USDC tokens on a cryptocurrency exchange such as Coinbase, Binance or Robinhood, you can withdraw them to this address. Make sure that you’re withdrawing USDC on the Polygon network. Otherwise, you could lose your money.

如果您在 Coinbase、Binance 或 Robinhood 等加密货币交易所拥有 USDC 代币，则可以将其提取到该地址。确保您在 Polygon 网络上提取 USDC。否则，您可能会损失金钱。

Alternatively, you can buy USDC directly through the Polymarket interface. Polymarket currently has an integration with Moonpay, a company that simplifies the process of purchasing cryptocurrency. This is a convenient way of adding USDC to your Polymarket account, but the purchase fee will be significantly higher than buying USDC on an exchange.

或者，您可以直接通过 Polymarket 界面购买 USDC。 Polymarket 目前与 Moonpay 进行了整合，该公司简化了购买加密货币的流程。这是将 USDC 添加到 Polymarket 账户的便捷方式，但购买费用将明显高于在交易所购买 USDC。

Now that you have some USDC in your Polymarket account, you can start making bets on the platform. To do this, simply browse through the available markets and click on the one that you want to bet on.

现在您的 Polymarket 账户中有一些 USDC，您可以开始在该平台上进行投注。为此，只需浏览可用市场并单击您想要下注的市场即可。

On the market page, you will see a list of all the possible outcomes for the event that the market is describing. For each outcome, there will be two prices, one for the “Yes†option and one for the “No†option.

在市场页面上，您将看到市场描述的事件的所有可能结果的列表。对于每种结果，都会有两种价格，一种用于“是”选项，一种用于“否”选项。

The “Yes†price represents the price at which you can buy shares that will pay out $1 if the “Yes†outcome occurs. The “No†price represents the price at which you can buy shares that will pay out $1 if the “No†outcome occurs.

“是”价格代表您可以购买股票的价格，如果出现“是”结果，您将支付 1 美元。 “否”价格代表您可以购买股票的价格，如果出现“否”结果，您将支付 1 美元。

For example, in the screenshot below, we can see that the “Yes†price for the outcome “Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election†is currently $0.458, while the “No†price is $0.538. This means that the market is currently giving Kamala Harris a 45.8% chance of winning the election.

例如，在下面的屏幕截图中，我们可以看到结果“卡马拉·哈里斯将赢得 2024 年美国总统大选”的“是”价格目前为 0.458 美元，而“否”价格为 0.538 美元。这意味着市场目前给予卡马拉·哈里斯赢得选举的机会为45.8%。

To make a bet on an outcome, simply enter the amount of USDC that you want to bet in the field next to the outcome and then click the “Buy Yes Shares†or “Buy No Shares†button.

要对结果进行下注，只需在结果旁边的字段中输入您想要下注的 USDC 金额，然后单击“购买是股票”或“不购买股票”按钮。

You will then be asked to confirm the transaction in your MetaMask wallet. Once you have confirmed the transaction, your bet will be placed.

然后，系统会要求您在 MetaMask 钱包中确认交易。一旦您确认交易，您的赌注就会下注。

If the outcome that you bet on occurs, you will be able to redeem your shares for $1 each. If the outcome that you bet on does not occur, your shares will become worthless.

如果您所投注的结果发生，您将能够以每股 1 美元的价格赎回您的股票。如果您所押注的结果没有发生，您的股票将变得一文不值。

It’s important to note that on Polymarket, you are not locked into a bet after you make it. The platform allows users to trade the shares that they own before the event described by the market actually transpires.

值得注意的是，在 Polymarket 上，您下注后并不会被锁定。该平台允许用户在市场描述的事件实际发生之前交易他们拥有的股票。

For example, let’s say that we purchased “Yes†shares for Kamala Harris when her odds were at 45.8%. If her odds increased after we made our bet, we could decide to sell our shares for a higher price and lock in profits

例如，假设我们在卡玛拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的胜算为 45.8% 时购买了“是”股票。如果我们下注后她的赔率增加，我们可以决定以更高的价格出售我们的股票并锁定利润