Novo Nordisk（NVO）的股票在2024年6月的歷史最高點上達到了148.15美元，這是自2019年以來的五倍增長。然而，此後的股票從其峰值價值下降了60％。

儘管丹麥生物技術巨頭的增長和收入勢頭強勁，但隨著競爭的加劇，丹麥生物技術巨頭對GLP-1受體激動劑的迅速變化市場的定位進行了審查。

Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) stock hit an all-time high of $148.15 in June 2024, marking a remarkable fivefold surge since 2019. Yet the stock has since plummeted 61% from its peak value.

Novo Nordisk（NYSE：NVO）的股票在2024年6月的歷史最高點上達到了148.15美元，這是自2019年以來的驚人五倍增長。然而，此後該股票與其峰值相比下降了61％。

Despite strong growth and earnings momentum, the Danish biotech giant faces scrutiny over its positioning in the rapidly changing market for GLP-1 receptor agonists, as competition intensifies. Still, the company's fundamental strengths, including a solid financial outlook for the year ahead, make it worth a closer look.

儘管丹麥生物技術巨頭的增長和收入勢頭強勁，但隨著競爭的加劇，丹麥生物技術巨頭對GLP-1受體激動劑的迅速變化市場的定位進行了審查。儘管如此，該公司的基本優勢，包括未來一年的堅實財務前景，它值得仔細觀察。

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現在在哪裡投資1,000美元？我們的分析師團隊剛剛透露了他們認為現在要購買的10種最佳股票。繼續 ”

Is it time to buy the dip in Novo Nordisk stock? Here's what you need to know.

是時候購買Novo Nordisk股票的蘸醬了嗎？這是您需要知道的。

The global market leader in GLP-1 drugs

GLP-1藥物的全球市場領導者

With a history dating back more than 100 years, Novo Nordisk has long been a leader in diabetes care. Its breakthrough came with the development of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist. That's part of the class of medications that mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood-sugar levels and stimulating insulin production, and it proved highly effective for managing type 2 diabetes.

隨著歷史可以追溯到100多年來，Novo Nordisk長期以來一直是糖尿病護理的領導者。它的突破是GLP-1受體激動劑的Semaglutide的發展。這是模仿負責調節血糖水平和刺激胰島素產生的激素類藥物的一部分，並且證明對管理2型糖尿病非常有效。

Following the initial Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of Ozempic in 2017, Novo Nordisk found success in expanding the semaglutide platform. This included the 2021 approval of Wegovy as a treatment for obesity, recognized for its transformative and clinically proven weight loss benefits.

在2017年Ozempic批准Ozempic之後，Novo Nordisk在擴展Semaglutide平台方面取得了成功。其中包括2021年Wegovy作為肥胖症治療的批准，以其變革性和臨床證明的減肥益處而認可。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Novo Nordisk has seen explosive growth, commanding a 63% share (by volume) of the global GLP-1 market, and nearly tripling its patient base to over 12 million in the past three years.

Novo Nordisk的增長爆炸性增長，在全球GLP-1市場中佔63％（按數量），在過去三年中，其患者基礎幾乎將其患者基礎提高到超過1200萬。

The worldwide demand has also translated into impressive financial trends. In 2024, net revenue reached $42 billion, up 25% year over year and more than double the figure from 2021. Profitability has also been strong, with 2024 earnings per share (EPS) increasing by 22% from the prior year.

全球需求也轉化為令人印象深刻的財務趨勢。 2024年，淨收入達到420億美元，同比增長了25％，比2021年的數字增加了兩倍。盈利能力也很高，每股收益為2024年（EPS）比上一年增長了22％。

An intense competitive landscape

激烈的競爭格局

Now, Novo Nordisk faces the challenge of navigating an increasingly competitive landscape, as emerging alternatives threaten its GLP-1 dominance.

現在，隨著新興的替代方案威脅到其GLP-1優勢，Novo Nordisk面臨著競爭日益激烈的挑戰。

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is posting faster growth with its GLP-1 platform, including Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss. These products have shown superior efficacy based on some benchmarks, outperforming Novo Nordisk's semaglutide. Additionally, Eli Lilly recently reported very encouraging phase 3 results for its experimental GLP-1 agonist, orforglipron, a more convenient oral formulation for weight loss.

Eli Lilly（NYSE：LLY）正在使用其GLP-1平台發布更快的增長，其中包括用於2型糖尿病的Mounjaro和減肥的Zepbough。這些產品基於某些基準表現出卓越的功效，表現優於Novo Nordisk的Semaglutide。此外，Eli Lilly最近報導了其實驗性GLP-1激動劑Orforglipron的3階段結果非常令人鼓舞，Orforglipron是一種更方便的口服配方，以減輕體重。

Moreover, companies like Viking Therapeutics are advancing a new platform that combines GLP-1 and gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) agonists. Recent data suggests this combination has the potential for even faster weight loss and fewer side effects.

此外，Viking Therapeutics等公司正在推進一個新平台，該平台結合了GLP-1和胃抑制多肽（GIP）激動劑。最近的數據表明，這種組合具有更快的減肥和更少的副作用的潛力。

The concern is that Novo Nordisk is at risk of losing its dominant market share in the GLP-1 space.

令人擔憂的是，Novo Nordisk有失去其在GLP-1領域中占主導地位的市場份額的風險。

Continued growth and an attractive valuation

持續增長和有吸引力的估值

Novo Nordisk plans to defend its leadership position in the GLP-1 market, which experts forecast will reach $150 billion by 2030. It recently expanded its production capacity to meet this growth opportunity, with the approval of Wegovy for sale in China late last year. This opens the door for Novo Nordisk to serve over 100 million patients in the booming local diabetes and obesity market, acting as an important growth driver.

Novo Nordisk的計劃捍衛其在GLP-1市場中的領導地位，專家預測到2030年將達到1500億美元。它最近擴大了其生產能力以實現這一增長機會，並在去年年底在中國批准了Wegovy出售。這為Novo Nordisk的大門打開了大門，為蓬勃發展的當地糖尿病和肥胖市場提供服務，成為重要的增長驅動力。

The company is also advancing an extensive pipeline. This includes new indications for semaglutide; its next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema; and a move to diversify into rare diseases, with several data readouts expected this year.

該公司還正在推進一條廣泛的管道。這包括Semaglutide的新指示；它的下一代減肥藥cagrisema;並將多元化為罕見疾病多樣化，今年預計將有幾次數據讀數。

In 2025, Novo Nordisk is guiding for annual sales growth between 16% and 24%, while Wall Street analysts project an 18% increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 2024.

2025年，Novo Nordisk指導年度銷售增長在16％至24％之間，而華爾街分析師項目的每股收益（EPS）從2024年開始增長18％。

Although the growth trajectory has been reset lower compared to the loftier expectations of the past few years, Novo Nordisk's attraction as an investment now lies in its attractive valuation. Shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 based on its consensus 2025 EPS, a relative bargain compared to Eli Lilly's forward P/E of around 37:

儘管與過去幾年的高度期望相比，增長軌蹟的重置較低，但Novo Nordisk作為一項投資的吸引力現在在於其有吸引力的估值。股票根據其共識2025 EPS的遠期市盈率（p/e）比率為14，這是相對便宜的，而Eli Lilly的遠期P/E則為37左右：

NVO PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

YCHARTS的NVO PE比（正向）數據。

Time to turn cautiously bullish

是時候謹慎看漲了

I'm cautiously bullish on Novo Nordisk stock, as the sell-off this year seems overdone. The company's potential to deliver better-than-expected results in the coming quarters could reaffirm its growth potential and spark a sharp rebound in the stock.

我對Novo Nordisk股票的看法謹慎，因為今年的拋售似乎過度了。該公司在未來幾個季度提供超過預期的結果的潛力可能會重申其增長潛力，並在股票中產生急劇的反彈。