開放興趣指標預測BTC價格下一步

週末的比特幣價格行動非常緩慢，反映出目前的猶豫不決和疲勞似乎徘徊在加密貨幣市場上。

After a dour performance during the week, the premier cryptocurrency has continued to trade within the $92,000 – $95,000 range on Saturday, May 17.

經過一周的杜爾（Dour）表現，總理加密貨幣在5月17日（星期六）繼續交易92,000至95,000美元。

However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader could be gearing up for significant price movements in the next few weeks.

但是，最新的鍊鍊數據表明，市場領導者可能會在接下來的幾週內為重大的價格變動做好準備。

Open Interest Metric Predicts What’s Next For BTC Price

開放興趣指標預測BTC價格下一步

In a recent post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Alphractal delved into fresh on-chain observations revolving around the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and the open interest (OI) cycle. According to the market intelligence firm, the BTC open interest data is exhibiting certain patterns that have coincided with major price moves in the past.

在X平台上最近的一篇文章中，區塊鏈分析公司Alphractal介紹了新鮮的鏈觀測，這些觀察結果圍繞比特幣（BTC）和開放興趣（OI）週期。根據市場情報公司的數據，BTC開放興趣數據表現出某些與過去的主要價格轉移相吻合的模式。

Typically, the open interest metric measures the total amount of money flowing into BTC derivatives at any given period. Meanwhile, the OI Delta indicator estimates changes in the open interest over a specific timeframe.

通常，開放利息指標在任何給定時期都要衡量流入BTC衍生品的總金額。同時，OI Delta指標估計了特定時間表上開放興趣的變化。

Firstly, Alphractal highlighted that the 30-day Open Interest Delta recently reached the same levels seen during the Bitcoin price rise to its previous all-time high of around $73,737 in 2024. This pattern shows that the BTC market could be at the beginning of a cyclical behavioral change.

首先，Alphractal強調說，30天的開放興趣Delta最近達到了比特幣價格上漲至2024年的歷史最高水平的相同水平。這種模式表明，BTC市場可能是在周期性行為變化的開始。

“A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market,” Alphractal said.

“出現了一種熟悉的模式：開放興趣增長的增加和減少的循環 - 我們可能稱之為第1階段和第2階段。在大量的位置積累（積極的三角洲）之後，我們經常會看到幾乎比例的下降（負delta），在市場上顯示出明顯的周期性行為，” Alphractal說。

Further, Alphractal noted that the 180-day Open Interest Delta offers a more interesting insight into the Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming weeks. According to the market intelligence firm, a negative 180-day OI Delta metric is usually associated with a market bottom or an accumulation trend.

此外，Alphractal指出，180天的開放興趣Delta為未來幾週的比特幣價格軌跡提供了更有趣的見解。根據市場情報公司的數據，負180天的OI三角洲度量標准通常與市場底層或累積趨勢有關。

As shown in the chart above, the 180-day Open Interest Delta sits just above the negative territory, which suggests that the Bitcoin price could witness increased volatility in the coming weeks. However, it is worth mentioning that a cross beneath the zero threshold could also signal the start of a new consolidation phase.

如上圖所示，180天的開放利息達美島位於負面領土上方，這表明比特幣價格可能會在未來幾週內見證波動性的增加。但是，值得一提的是，零閾值以下的十字架也可能標誌著新的合併階段的開始。

Alphractal concluded on X: “Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite.”

Alphractal在X上得出結論：“總的來說，開放興趣並沒有像2023年10月至2024年初一樣成比例地增長，並且從2024年10月到2025年初。這些年度模式可能表明投資者風險食慾的分形行為。”