开放兴趣指标预测BTC价格下一步

周末的比特币价格行动非常缓慢，反映出目前的犹豫不决和疲劳似乎徘徊在加密货币市场上。

After a dour performance during the week, the premier cryptocurrency has continued to trade within the $92,000 – $95,000 range on Saturday, May 17.

经过一周的杜尔（Dour）表现，总理加密货币在5月17日（星期六）继续交易92,000至95,000美元。

However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader could be gearing up for significant price movements in the next few weeks.

但是，最新的链链数据表明，市场领导者可能会在接下来的几周内为重大的价格变动做好准备。

Open Interest Metric Predicts What’s Next For BTC Price

开放兴趣指标预测BTC价格下一步

In a recent post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Alphractal delved into fresh on-chain observations revolving around the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and the open interest (OI) cycle. According to the market intelligence firm, the BTC open interest data is exhibiting certain patterns that have coincided with major price moves in the past.

在X平台上最近的一篇文章中，区块链分析公司Alphractal介绍了新鲜的链观测，这些观察结果围绕比特币（BTC）和开放兴趣（OI）周期。根据市场情报公司的数据，BTC开放兴趣数据表现出某些与过去的主要价格转移相吻合的模式。

Typically, the open interest metric measures the total amount of money flowing into BTC derivatives at any given period. Meanwhile, the OI Delta indicator estimates changes in the open interest over a specific timeframe.

通常，开放利息指标在任何给定时期都要衡量流入BTC衍生品的总金额。同时，OI Delta指标估计了特定时间表上开放兴趣的变化。

Firstly, Alphractal highlighted that the 30-day Open Interest Delta recently reached the same levels seen during the Bitcoin price rise to its previous all-time high of around $73,737 in 2024. This pattern shows that the BTC market could be at the beginning of a cyclical behavioral change.

首先，Alphractal强调说，30天的开放兴趣Delta最近达到了比特币价格上涨至2024年的历史最高水平的相同水平。这种模式表明，BTC市场可能是在周期性行为变化的开始。

“A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market,” Alphractal said.

“出现了一种熟悉的模式：开放兴趣增长的增加和减少的循环 - 我们可能称之为第1阶段和第2阶段。在大量的位置积累（积极的三角洲）之后，我们经常会看到几乎比例的下降（负delta），在市场上显示出明显的周期性行为，” Alphractal说。

Further, Alphractal noted that the 180-day Open Interest Delta offers a more interesting insight into the Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming weeks. According to the market intelligence firm, a negative 180-day OI Delta metric is usually associated with a market bottom or an accumulation trend.

此外，Alphractal指出，180天的开放兴趣Delta为未来几周的比特币价格轨迹提供了更有趣的见解。根据市场情报公司的数据，负180天的OI三角洲度量标准通常与市场底层或累积趋势有关。

As shown in the chart above, the 180-day Open Interest Delta sits just above the negative territory, which suggests that the Bitcoin price could witness increased volatility in the coming weeks. However, it is worth mentioning that a cross beneath the zero threshold could also signal the start of a new consolidation phase.

如上图所示，180天的开放利息达美岛位于负面领土上方，这表明比特币价格可能会在未来几周内见证波动性的增加。但是，值得一提的是，零阈值以下的十字架也可能标志着新的合并阶段的开始。

Alphractal concluded on X: “Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite.”

Alphractal在X上得出结论：“总的来说，开放兴趣并没有像2023年10月至2024年初一样成比例地增长，并且从2024年10月到2025年初。这些年度模式可能表明投资者风险食欲的分形行为。”