當最新的經濟數據燃料停滯恐懼時，市場變成負面

一小時前，市場上的另一個積極的一天似乎已經變成了負面的，因為最新的經濟數據助長了不斷增長的停滯恐懼。

The promise of a positive Thursday in the markets has soured somewhat as the latest economic data has fueled further stagflation fears.

由於最新的經濟數據激發了進一步的停滯恐懼，因此市場上積極的星期四有望有些變化。

In the days leading up to the government's own employment numbers, ADP's report on private-sector jobs created in April came in well below expectations on Thursday.

在政府自己的就業人數上的日子裡，ADP關於4月創造的私營部門工作的報告遠低於週四的期望。

The report showed jobs at 62,000, compared to estimates of 108,000 and March's 147,000. It was also the weakest reading since July 2024.

該報告顯示，工作崗位為62,000，而估計為108,000，而3月的147,000。這也是自2024年7月以來最薄弱的讀物。

Later in the session, the government's first estimate of first quarter GDP growth showed a decline of 0.3%, compared to economists' forecasts of 0.2%.

在會議上的晚些時候，政府對第一季度GDP增長的第一個估計顯示，與經濟學家的預測為0.2％相比，它顯示為0.3％。

While the quarter ended in March, economic actors — fully aware of coming tariffs — front-loaded imports earlier in the year. As any Econ 101 student can attest, rising imports (absent a corresponding gain in exports) are a drag on GDP growth.

儘管該季度在三月份結束時，經濟參與者（充分意識到即將到來的關稅）在今年早些時候進行了前進的進口。正如任何ECON 101學生都可以證明的那樣，進口量增加（出口相應的增長）是GDP增長的阻力。

Indeed, the export-import imbalance cut GDP growth by nearly 5 percentage points in the first quarter. Also weighing on the top-line reading was the Trump administration's efforts to lower the trade deficit, with government spending acting as a drag on GDP for the first time since 2022.

確實，第一季度出口IMPORT不平衡將GDP增長近5個百分點。特朗普政府還努力降低貿易赤字的努力也是政府的努力，政府的支出自2022年以來首次拖延了GDP。

Turning to inflation, the Core PCE price index embedded within the GDP report showed a rise of 3.5%, compared to forecasts for a gain of 3.1%.output: The upbeat tone in Thursday's markets soured somewhat as the latest economic data had investors adjusting their stagflation fears.

轉向通貨膨脹，GDP報告中嵌入的核心PCE價格指數顯示出3.5％的增長，而預測的增長率為3.1％。輸出：週四市場上的樂觀基調有些惡化，因為最新的經濟數據使投資者調整了他們的停滯恐懼。

Coming two days ahead of the government's own employment numbers, ADP's report on private-sector jobs created in April showed an increase of 62,000. This was significantly lower than economists' predictions of 108,000 and March's figure of 147,000. Moreover, it marked the weakest reading since July 2024.

ADP關於4月創造的私營部門職位的報告提前兩天提前兩天，顯示出62,000人增加。這明顯低於經濟學家對108,000的預測，而三月的數字為147,000。此外，它標誌著自2024年7月以來最弱的讀物。

Later in the session, the government's first estimate of first quarter GDP growth revealed a decline of 0.3%, contrasting with economists' forecasts of 0.2%.

在會議上的晚些時候，政府對第一季度GDP增長的第一個估計顯示，下降了0.3％，與經濟學家的預測相反，它的預測為0.2％。

While the quarter ended in March, economic actors, anticipating the upcoming tariffs, decided to accelerate their imports at the beginning of the year. As any Econ 101 student can attest, a surge in imports, unaccompanied by a parallel increase in exports, exerts a downward pull on GDP growth.

儘管該季度在三月份結束時，經濟參與者預計即將到來的關稅，決定在年初加速進口。正如任何ECON 101學生都能證明的那樣，進口的激增，由於出口的平行增加而無人陪伴，因此對GDP的增長施加了下降。

In fact, the disparity between exports and imports slashed GDP growth by nearly 5 percentage points in the first quarter. Additionally, the Trump administration's efforts to reduce the trade deficit, which involved government spending serving as a drag on GDP for the first time since 2022, further contributed to the decline.

實際上，第一季度的進口和進口之間的差異使GDP增長近5個百分點。此外，特朗普政府為減少貿易赤字做出的努力，該貿易赤字涉及政府自2022年以來首次拖延GDP的支出，進一步導致了這一下降。

Focusing on inflation, the Core PCE price index, a key measure of price stability, was reported to have risen by 3.5%. This finding exceeded economists' estimations of a 3.1% increase.

據報導，重點關注通貨膨脹，核心PCE價格指數是價格穩定的關鍵衡量標準，據報導增長了3.5％。這一發現超出了經濟學家對增長3.1％的估計。